Gulfstream tapeta/synth bias?

[Bauerx90]

Any biases to note on the new surface ?

[Tavasco]

IMHO - As with other artificial surfaces Turfway, Presque Isle, Golden Gate, etc, The bias that I\'ve noticed is for runners coming from off the pace.

The Tappeta surface is playing a lot like turf racing. It takes a very fit horse to win on the lead.

So something for everybody. The lightly built deerlike runners have the old dirt track to skip over blazing on the front end creating leads nobody can make up.

The heavier built strong individual\'s stamina makes a good stretch run necessary and exciting on the low bounce tiring carpet-like surface.

Those with an affinity for turf now have two choices.

I think it is a positive addition once one figures out a strategy to determine what surface the race will be run on?

[HP]

This is conventional wisdom about turf racing. If you're watching what's going on at Gulfstream with turf racing horses on the lead are dominating. I don't see too many coming with rallies from the back of the pack at all. And if they do rally it's too late to win, even at the longer distances (and there haven't been too many of those races). This could be a function of longer stretches without too much rain, but I haven't followed the weather that closely. Some turf courses favor speed more than others (like Monmouth).

I do agree with the observations about Tapeta. I don't see it as a speed favoring surface.

HP

[prist]

They ran 50 races at Gulfstream last week. 18 were on the synthetic.

I was under the impression they were only going to use the synthetic track when races were rained off the turf.

What\'s the deal?

[TGJB]

They want to make it as hard as possible for those of us making figures. Three surfaces, five horse fields, different turf rails...

Otherwise it would be too easy. Like Laurel.

[statuette]

Hey Prist on a side note ready for the storm of the century lol

[prist]

statuette Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Prist on a side note ready for the storm of
> the century lol

I\'m hoping for synthetic snow.

[statuette]

Lol should've seen that coming

[prist]

I took the 50 races they ran at GP last week and ran them through a spreadsheet I made.

This was not the intended purpose of the spreadsheet, but this kind of analysis is well within its scope.

What I did was compare the official closing prices, for each horse, to how they actually performed on the track.

The end result is a rating I\'ll call \"volatility Rate.\" The lower the number, the more formful the race.

I highlighted the races on Saturday because a lot of chalk won that day. Interestingly enough those races all came back with good scores even though i\'m measuring all the horses rather than just the winner. The PWC came back as the second most formful race out of the 50 they ran last week.

Results show that the synth races are more volatile than the non-synth races. The difference is around 10% for the small sample size I worked with. So, I guess synth races are 10% harder to handicap.

Spreadsheet printout attached ... when/if I figure out how.

The internet is also messed up today. Must be all the synthetic snow we\'re getting.

[prist]

Volatility Rate

[prist]

It looks like the NYRA will probably pull the trigger on a artificial surface at Belmont Park sometime in the near future. Something the powers that be have been thinking about for over 60 years.

Attached is a DRF article dated 5/14/1959.

Artificial Surface

[ajkreider]

I think they want to save the turf course, as it usually gets torn up pretty bad as the year progresses.  But they\'re having more trouble with it this year than in years past (part of it is also new, I think).

[Molesap]

The Tapeta surface at GP has given me some problems as it seems like you need a completely different set of handicapping tools to get to the winners. Of the last 100+ route races over the Tapeta surface just 13% were wire to wire. Contrast that with the main track where you have more than twice as many on the lead winners (35%) and over 3/4 of the winners came from horses that were on the lead or within two lengths of the lead at the half mile pole in GP dirt routes. The point is it is tough to go coast to coast routing on the GP synthetic surface. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems like it is equally as tough trying to pass a significant portion of the field and get to the wire first. Many of the winners take up a good stalking position early and move closer to front on the turn so they are in position to grind to a win. Almost half of the winners come from between 2 and 6 lengths back at the half mile pole. There are almost 30% who come from within two lengths of the leader at the half mile call, while those who are six or more lengths behind early make less than 10% of the winners. So, the style you are looking for at GP Tapeta routes is somewhere within six lengths of the early leader, but not the leader itself. For turf routes, the running styles have been fairly evenly distributed with almost 30% of the winners being on the lead at the half mile pole, about 30% being within two lengths at the half mile pole and slightly more than 30% coming from 2 to 6 lengths behinds. That leaves 10% of the winners coming from six or more lengths behind at the half mile mark.

For Tapeta sprints, it seems you need to be a bit closer as over half of the winners were pressers within two lengths of the leader but not on the lead (about 50%), while the rest of the winners are fairly evenly split between being on the lead (about 27%) or racing between 2 and 5 lengths of the lead (about 24%). It has been virtually impossible to win sprinting on the Tapeta at GP from more than six lengths back at the half mile poll as just one horse has been able to do it. In fact, it has been very difficult for any horse to win from farther than six lengths back on any surface or distance at GP – not impossible, just very difficult. In terms of main track sprints, almost 90% of the winners come from within two lengths or less at the half mile pole – you need to have some speed at GP to have a shot sprinting on the main. In fact, 50% have been on the lead at the point in time and almost 40% of the others have been within two lengths of the lead. That leaves just 9% of the winners further back than two lengths at the half mile pole in GP sprints over the main course and most of those were within 6 lengths. Speed has been king in GP turf sprints with 56% of the winners on the lead at the half mile pole, while oddly to me, only 4% of the winners were represented by a horse within 2 lengths of the lead. About one third of the winners came from 2 and 6 lengths back at the quarter pole (32%). A little less than 10% of the winners around one turn at GP on the grass came from more than 6 lengths back.

[HP]

This is interesting, but if 30% of turf route winners are on the lead at the half mile pole, and 30% are within two lengths that's not exactly "evenly distributed?" That favors runners on or near the lead, and then out of the next 30% that you have within 2 to 6 lengths, let's say half of those are within 4 lengths. That's a pretty strong front running bias for turf routes? About 75% of runners within 4 lengths with over a half to go?

I'd say Gulfstream favors early speed in routes more than most turf tracks this meet. I haven't looked at past meet results.

[Molesap]

Agreed - route races run on the dirt strongly favor horses that are close to the lead as over 75% are were on the lead or within two lengths at the half mile pole. Turf favors horses close to the lead as over 60% were on the lead or within two lengths at the half mile pole. The bulk of remaining winners come from that 2-6 length area - it is tough win at GP routing at GP when you are more than 6 lengths back. This meet is a bit different in the sense that many of the races run over Tapeta would have been carded on the turf so that has kept the turf course in better condition. They feel they need to do that as GP pretty much runs year around now that they closed GP West.