I'm gone

[doug jackson]

Am I the only one who sees horse racing as totally crooked? I look on in disbelief as horses improve 10-20 points from race to race, no distance switch, no surface switch, no rider change, and yet huge form reversals. Some of the big form swings get bet off the board and some win off at 25-1 or better. Even well rounded punters, those who wait and pick premium spots are puzzled when the reversals sting them, they can\'t find logic in what they witnessed.
 

There is no rhyme or reason. I\'m done betting horses, No more vig from me.

And now, if you\'ll excuse me, I have stacks of racing info that must be crumbled up so as it is gentler on my keister when I wipe.

One more thing, a big thank you to thorograph for trying to help, and I did try, but I\'m afraid that horse racing is a lost cause.

[Boscar Obarra]

My sympathies.

 But frankly, the longer you play ,  fewer things should surprise you.

 If you are finding it more mysterious as time goes on, then maybe an easier challenge, like  quantum physics . would be a better pursuit .

[P-Dub]

Aside from the rampant cheating, stuff like this nauseates me:

https://twitter.com/Shore_Sophie/status/1442959970132271104

[doug jackson]

Ive had differential calculus in school,
linear algebra, FORTRAN, C code, C++, proofs by contrapositive, induction,
physics and related math, electrical. simultaneous equations, voltage
phases for DC current using Trigonometry the angle of theta , logical
circuits and gating transistors TTL Logic and CMOS....

I have analyzed horses for the better part of forty years, use to be a fair game, that is before the advent of the cell phone. It seemed to me that things changed when the cell phone came on the scene. It makes sense, with conference calling a connection (I.E. a trainer, groom, hot walker..etc..etc..) can instantly message hundreds of people at one time, thus getting the word out seconds before the gate opens.

Nothing is worse than having your money on a horse that leaves the gate at 4-1, runs a quarter and the odds drop to 5/2, round the turn and now 9/5, down the stretch and wins at final odds of 6/5, am I the only one that notices?

[Boscar Obarra]

Thats actually very rare  at majors, and at NYRA non existent now.

[johnnym]

Boscar:
By you saying rare at majors. Is that implying the bot teams are being shut out early? Do you know how the BCC will be handling them?
Ty

[TGJB]

NYRA locked out the CAW guys last two minutes in the win pool, they’re still in all others except for pick 5 and pick 6 right to the bell.

Other places it is catch as catch can. I have it on very good authority that at GP CAW is 35% of handle.

[johnnym]

Ty JB

I heard ya on the BYK show reference that, as well as BYK mentioning Boscar’s observation.
I did not know if other tracks specifically the BC would be bringing that same concept to the table.

As far as GP, at what point do they start eating there own?

[skitimber]

Like many, I have turned away from this game more and more.  But I wonder if anyone with deep pockets and a computer has compared win payoffs, say 40 years ago, to today.  What was the average price back then vs today in like size fields?  Has anyone  compared todays and yesteryears final odds (say all the 6 to 5 horses) to their actual return over an entire year at all tracks or each track (for maybe a 2-3 year stretch?)

My instinct tells me that if there\'s more chicanery now than back then, it MUST show up as lower payoffs.  If prices are not lower overall from years ago, either at one track, several or all, I wonder how that\'s possible?  Years ago, you could actually make money betting horses at 2/5 or lower.  Anyone who read Burt Fabricand\'s great book Horse Sense might remember that.  Curious if that\'s still the case.  So much to be curious about; so little time!

[Boscar Obarra]

I was directly referring to this quote by jackson

\"Nothing is worse than having your money on a horse that leaves the gate at 4-1, runs a quarter and the odds drop to 5/2, round the turn and now 9/5, down the stretch and wins at final odds of 6/5, am I the only one that notices?\"

 Not something you see every day.  

 BCC , Breeders Cup ?   Imo the pools are big enough that you don\'t get a lot of big late moves.  That doesn\'t stop  the late money in Hong Kong, but I don\'t recall too many strange late punches in the BC.

[Fairmount1]

Doug,

I\'ve actually given your two posts in this string quite a bit of thought if you are still reading. I share just a few thoughts for a perspective from the other side of the fence.    

Your two biggest points as I gather related to the game no longer being fair because of unpredictable form reversals and the advent of cell phones.  In response, I would say that form reversals were where I found the most lucrative angles in the early days of my playing but many of those angles are now completely exploited and exposed and overplayed in the pools now.  I don\'t personally see cell phones as the game changer you do for explaining things happening that make the game one not worth following.  

I have only 22 +/- years of following the game to rely upon as opposed to your 40 plus. Bigger picture for me, I have never threatened to quit the game.  I certainly play much more \"leisurely\" in many ways which still means I play with more study and aforethought than even the remaining knuckleheads (including me) dumb enough to be playing.  Is the game beatable?  Well, not in the same way it maybe once was.  What I see is if the gambling brings you pleasure while you put yourself in reasonable positions to profit while making intelligent bets, then it is worth the time and effort.  If you don\'t have time and just want to gamble on something, sports betting is probably more bang for your buck in some ways.  I don\'t know for certain as I don\'t bet sports save $60 of lost Promo money on a Davonta Smith parlay last week of the $100 Fan Duel gave me at Fairmount for signing up for their app in April.

Handicapping has been turned on its head by designer drugs that don\'t test positive unless it is for \"dex\" or similar type drugs.  See Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro.  The game has become beyond top heavy in many ways with the top 5 trainers ruling the day in graded stakes and any other level they desire to run their horses.  The gamblers are largely ignored by the tracks in favor of their rebate customers of whom at least one of the tracks are partnered with and the CAW ways.  Jocks now getting \"stung\" for devices from HD cameras catching every moment.  Jock penalized 10 years for something a trainer told him to do.  Yet a trainer at Gulfstream only gets 10 to 45 days for OOC testing showing the presence of Clen.  One trainer pointed the finger at Clemente who has never had a positive LOL.   Other trainers test positive in graded stakes and embarrass the game at the Triple Crown level multiple years and no one cares in California where they still cheer him on as the greatest of all time.  Anyone with half a brain could figure out the score years and years ago. So yes, the game is an absolute disgrace on many fronts and beyond repair.  I could list 15 more items besides these vague complaints I listed that make the game maddening and frustrating.

However, for me, there are still bright spots.  A day at the track is enjoyable and a place to solve puzzles, enjoy the weather, the sights, the sounds, and the horses.  Saratoga backyard, Kentucky Downs, Keeneland, Oaklawn Park, Derby weekend, Etc.  I don\'t mention BC as to not offend RC  And if you make narrow wagers with reasonable chances of success that do not break the bank, you can make some decent scores.  

I certainly see the game far, far different than many years ago.  But I still enjoy it when I have the time and energy to truly handicap esp when I get to spend it with friends at live racing.  So while I understand why an intelligent person would step away completely, I\'ll still be around hunting and pecking through all the information I can to find an angle to make a score.  And if I do, I\'ll probably buy the next round as the older generation taught me when I first started going to Fairmount on Saturday afternoons.

[shanahan]

My friend, you put it very well.  I\'m in your camp.  I go to the races for the social aspect, and if I make some $$, great.  Like many of us, it\'s about the atmosphere of the big day, or the seasonal events.  Saratoga isn\'t as much about the racing as it is a step back in time, and spending time in the backyard with friends - new and old.
I remember our first tent infield party at OAK, and I don\'t think I had time to bet  much more than the derby because it was just so much fun people watching and catching up on bad jokes (some yours!).  Outside of BC and Derby Day, I take $200 (golf costs more these days I\'m told) on Saturday and play a late P5 or two.  And I find it more successful playing 2 late P5 or 4s than one entire card.  I play Create a Card more than anything these days.
As for the 5 trainers or so that rule the G1s, no surprise to me - generally they have all the big $$ owners who spend at the sales, so why shouldn\'t they win?  Yes,, it was a grand day at the Preakness with Funny Cide and getting to know Jack K, but not many $15K purchases winning - and that makes for a great story.
See you at OAK this winter.  Good luck at BC...Oh, and one other thing.  What time is the Cubs game this week? Oh, that\'s right...well you can commiserate with Roger..be well.

[trackjohn]

Shan/Fair:

Both great posts and comments... couldn\'t agree more...

John

[Dana666]

I share many of the same sentiments, having done this daily grind for a long time with diminishing returns and increasing frustrations.

There\'s a track available from DRF/Xpressbet and NYRA bets called Caymanas Park, outside Kingston, Jamaica.

They have a safe, deep, super-consistent, bias-free surface, great jockeys and trainers and HUGE fields and payouts, especially pick sixes and multi-race horizontal bets.

All their info is free with the most detailed past performances I\'ve ever seen, including the groom\'s name!

They have a strict no tolerance policy for PEDs and other drugs, though Lasix and Bute are allowed. They test like MLB tests for COVID!

They run that place with as much integrity and honesty as I\'ve ever seen at a racetrack. I\'ve personally spoken with some of the administrators, and they\'re all really good folks.

Give them a look.

Downsides are no turf, and they usually race only 1X per week, sometimes 2X a week.

https://caymanasracing.com/

Good luck.

[johnnym]

I feel the horse racing world is just a reflection of the bigger world.
Both are totally crooked and if the vail was ever lifted I don’t think many would be surprised at the answers.
 
I have met some really good peeps on this board that have taught me a lot.
I only play the big days and I try my best to enjoy it.

I hope you guys stick around for a while as I still need to get to the backyard at toga and enjoy a day of ball busting with the TG gang.

GL to all
John