Jersey Girl Stakes

[prist]

Small field with two fig standouts. To bet against the two favorites I think you\'re gonna need at least 8/1. The only horse that\'s going to meet that threshold seems to be SHOP GIRL and she\'s around 6 points slower than the chalk. Not that enticing.

Might as well focus on the two fast horses on paper and see what happens. I\'ll go with MISS BRAZIL at 4/5 and BELLA SOFIA at 2/1.

[TGJB]

Or you could pass.

On the otherâ€" the point is not how the horses run on a particular day. The point is some figures are clearly wrong, blatantly, ridiculously, and if you could get them to post the whole race (Pat Day, the ones Tiz and the other were out of), which you can’t, you would see how ridiculous they are.

Beyer doesn’t get them all dead on, and obviously doesn’t use weight or ground. But they don’t make gross errorsâ€" we would be talking 10-30 points on their scale in the examples mentioned.

The reason for this, as I’ve said before, is that what The Jakes do is detached from realityâ€" literally. It’s a set of rules and a process that produces a result, and they go with that result whether it makes sense or not in the real world. If they have to give 20s to a whole field of horses who consistently run 10s, they do.

No serious figure maker on the planet does that.

[prist]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Or you could pass.

Hell will freeze over the day I figure out how to play this game. I don\'t even know why I bother with odds when the strategy can\'t be implemented.

If you\'re doing a decent job handicapping the odds that \"usually\" means you\'re going to be pretty close to what you see on the odds board. These pools are very efficient and if there is a large discrepancy somewhere the error is probably on your/my end. But its pretty much impossible to pinpoint where the value will be due to narrow value margins combined with the odds fluctuations associated with today\'s game. Just my humble opinion.

[jerry]

Agree. It’s almost futile trying to mine any value these days.

[jerry]

Case in point, Delaware’s 7th today. Angelus Warrior is 8-1 in ML. Double probables project maybe 2-1 or less. I cancelled my bet.

[ChiTownJoe]

Lot of value in SA pk6 yesterday, paid 4.5x the parlay.

[jerry]

And then that happens. FTS

[jerry]

And you knew this beforehand