How to Bet

[prist]

I have a question regarding betting.

When you have set a price on a horse, and that horse doesn\'t reach the odds threshold you set, do you still use that horse in gimmicks? I have always wanted to know the answer to this question.

From what I have observed over the years the answer seems to be: yes. Why is that? Isn\'t the horse an underlay in the gimmick pools just like in the win pool?

Who was the handicapper for the Pimlico analysis on Friday and Saturday? Vic? Jerry? Other?

[TGJB]

Roger did the analysis for Pim Saturday, he’s good, I was pretty much straight down the line with him and the Preakness play was mine.

The issue is whether (for example) the exacta price as a whole is an overlay. If I like a 20-1 shot and the favorite is overbet (8/5 when it should be 3-1), I’m still going to protect under it because it has a good shot to win, and the $100 price is still an overlay, because of the second horse.

[prist]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Roger did the analysis for Pim Saturday, he’s
> good, I was pretty much straight down the line
> with him and the Preakness play was mine.

I\'m really interested in your rundown of the Preakness field. I hope you post it here, or on your YouTube channel.

[TGJB]

We didn’t do a seminar. Personally my big position was against CT. I boxed MS and MB, and used Rombauer and the 4 (Chad) with them in tris and supers.

There’s a lesson to be learned from this, and I should have learned it a few years ago at Saratoga. At the seminar I said a Romans filly was screaming that she was gonna run a néw top, but she was too slow. She won the Alabama by a pole at about 13-1.

If they’re going to run a new top don’t try to guess whether it will be 1,2 or 4 points. They’re value. Rombauer had the Commanding Curve pattern. My guess is he ran about a zero.

[makrmark]

So I am really confused...the analysis always says has back numbers to run back to...has a good pattern,etc. The analysis always references patterns..I do not get how romabuer was NOT mentioned considering the Com Curve reference......I wasnt aware I needed to buy both the sheets and the analysis to get what tg was thinking..in fact I would have thought the analysis was all I needed.

[TGJB]

The Analysis is recommended plays with a brief description of why (and if there was more said it would have been about Concert Tour). The data is for your own analysis. When there is a seminar-- and there will be one for the Belmont-- I go over each horse.

The other problems are that we have to do it in advance, and have limited space and time. If I had done it Saturday I would have added there were two other horses that can be used in exotics but mostly underneath-- I didn\'t think Rombauer could beat the other two.

[johnnym]

A thought I have had and a question to others.

If you handicap the card prior, then on game day purchase the analysis, how much influence is the analysis in your final decision?

[makrmark]

Fair enough. But if that is the case it feels diluted. It will be the same price as the belmont seminar I am asuuming. So why not narrow it down to 3 or 4 solid opinions as opposed to every race and give more detail. There was obviously a pattern play here with the winner and by paying I would have thought we would have been privy to that. Instead I would have had to buy the sheets, then go to the archives and try to figure it out. It seems there is an easy way to improve this product. Less is more.

[makrmark]

If it mentions a horse I like it is a big impact.

[T Severini]

Here\'s Rombauer\'s Blue Grass.  Essential Quality runs wide and wins wearing down a horse that based on the day\'s card was making relatively easy fractions. It wasn\'t easy for Essentially Quality to do all the work reining in the front runner. Essential Quality had the crops best numbers until the Preakness.  Note the bit of trouble Rombauer had at the break...how he appears outrun, but then saving ground on the final turn regains what he\'s lost. Do you detect a slight bear in towards the rail about mid homestretch? He\'s beat pretty good, but its not a bad race vs the current crop leader and then note his post race gallop out.  When he came out dancing, he appeared to be sitting on a good one. Figure wise he was on a Forge.

Blue Grass Stakes

[prist]

makrmark Wrote:
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> Fair enough. But if that is the case it feels
> diluted.

Re: Diluted

I\'m not making any comment on the analysis specifically. It\'s fine with me. I just check it from time to time to compare myself to the \"experts.\"

What I would want to get out of any analysis, or seminar, done by a member of the Thoro-Graph team, is a \"pure\" sheet read based on the numbers on the sheet. When you start factoring in trip, bias and pace that\'s when I think things get \"Diluted.\" Just my humble opinion.

[milwmike]

Different TG users can analyze a race and come up with totally different selections.  Two examples from yesterday.  Vic on the TPGS seminar loved the turf sprint winner, Steve Byk on his website didn’t have the horse in his top 4.  In the BE/Preakness double, Byk had 3 A selections and 2 B’s, none of them the winner.

I’m not picking on Steve as I am a fan of his.  Just trying to show that two very experienced TG users came come up with totally different selections on the same race.  Which is always why I personally use the sheets in handicapping a race and if I get the analysis, it is more as a “double check” on my handicapping.

[makrmark]

I said none of that. Im talking about a pattern that was obvious to them. The analysis often mentions patterns. Where you got trip/pace/bias from is beyond me.

[prist]

TGJB Wrote:
------------------------------------------------
> There’s a lesson to be learned from this, and I
> should have learned it a few years ago at
> Saratoga. At the seminar I said a Romans filly was
> screaming that she was gonna run a néw top, but
> she was too slow. She won the Alabama by a pole at
> about 13-1.
>
> If they’re going to run a new top don’t try to
> guess whether it will be 1,2 or 4 points.
> They’re value. Rombauer had the Commanding Curve
> pattern. My guess is he ran about a zero.

Got it. Good advice. I think I learned a couple of things in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Unfortunately lessons cost money. ðŸ˜,,

Question: How did you distinguish between ROMBAUER and UNBRIDLED HONOR? Both seemed similar. Both could throw a top and you wouldn\'t be surprised, but there\'s no real indication on the sheet that you could count on it from either of them.

[makrmark]

you are missing the point...I am specifically referring to pattern that was talked about as being similar to comm curve which obviously was a great call that year...it was talked about on board prior to race...as having purchased the analysis it seems I was left out on a strong pattern play. They often give out 3 horse boxes in analysis. They didnt in this race. To hear that horse was being used and cashed based on that pattern I feel slighted. What Vic and Byk had has NOTHING to do with this. I made my point. Right or wrong I have no idea.