Mattress Mac's Hedge

[Tavasco]

Mattress Mac McInVale has publically stated he will wager from $2 - $4 million on Essential Quality to win the Kentucky Derby Sat. The bet is in connection with a promise to make mattress purchases free if EQ wins the Derby. Such is the reality of a promoter.

So if Mac is hedging his mattress promotion it stands to reason he will also hedge the $2+M win bet, albeit not publically. Looking to lose as little of it as possible. What would be the preferred hedge strategy of his accountants?

Secondly, given that he is planning to place the win bet on-site @ CD and reportedly won\'t bet early and cause a 1/9 flash what effect is this likely to have on the AI syndicates?

Where and what opportunities, if any, are potentialities? ...other than a free mattress.

Oh never mind, keeping it simple I wasn\'t going to bet EQ to win anyway.

[Molesap]

These are the types of questions I LOVE to ponder - on any week but Derby Week or Breeder\'s Cup Week, but it does present itself with some interesting scenarios.

[toppled]

How is Mac putting the bet in?  Is he doing it in $500k increments spread out, or is it going to be one bet?  
The reason I asked is EQ is currently 3/5 with $609k in the win pool on him of $1.248 million.  This suggests that someone put a $400-500,000 bet on him already.

[Molesap]

He was actually 5/1 earlier along with Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World - looks like a half million came in on one chunk.

Not sure how he is placing those bets - he did say he was cognizant of not driving the price down late so maybe it was him.

[TGJB]

Gotta love saying \"500k increments\".

[BB]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Gotta love saying \"500k increments\".

That\'s also how he buys Runhappy sponsorships.

[Boscar Obarra]

I can almost guarantee he\'s doing it wrong.

[T Severini]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> I can almost guarantee he\'s doing it wrong.


lmao Boscar...yeah, not much sense getting into \"The Mattresses\" foray into the Sport.  

We\'ve come here to bury Ceasar, not praise him. One day they\'ll figure it out, but No, No, No...Not Today!

[Boscar Obarra]

Only referring to his giant win bet on the horse .   No opinion on the other stuff .

[kencbs]

Per the Horse Racing Nation website, someone bet $500k for him at Churchill today.  Mac has wired $4 mill to Churchill, so more to come tomorrow.

[Roman]

Mac’s promotion is for the derby favorite to win. With his 500k on Essential Quality, he made EQ the favorite, if you take out his bet, Rock your World would be early favorite on the tote by almost 100k. If he was betting the favorite, should he not wait till the public sets the odds to find out who the favorite will be? In this case he is making EQ the favorite. If RYW would / have been the favorite and with Mac’s money, RYW might be a super huge live overlay.

[Roman]

Let me restate, the entire field will be overlaid

[hellersorr]

That seems doubtful to me.

[Boscar Obarra]

I hadn\'t paid much attention to this until the last few days.

 His site does say \'the favorite\' without naming a horse. Some reports I read name  Essential Quality , as if favoritism was assured.
   
  Interesting.

  The bet itself seems to be the hedge against the 3,000 free mattress  offer. To break even he must expect to sell a lot of Posturpedics.

[Bet Twice]

I read an interview with him and he said he had some “experts” helping him with the betting aspect.  In addition to the win betting, he also mentioned both horizontal and vertical bets.  He was conscious of impacting the pools, so was taking that into account as to how he was going to be sending it in.