20 Years of Derby Rail

[Molesap]

I know some TG’ers had expressed having some affinity for Known Agenda prior to the draw and the question is how will the rail draw affect his chances? The public seemed to think Lookin at Lucky’s chances in 2010 were severely compromised as he went from the 3/1 morning line favorite to 6/1 â€" they were right as he had a horrendous trip and is now the poster child for the “bad” rail draw. Perhaps in some sort of karmic justice, his son Lookin at Lee got the dream trip from the rail in 2017 to finish second at normal “LP” odds (33/1). Everyone else likely falls between those two extremes.

Below is a summary of the horses that broke from the rail since 2000 with year, name, odds, chart comment summary, and finish position with the total number of entrants so you can make your own interpretation. Note that the new starting gate may have an effect on this data, but only time will bore that out. Also remember that if there are 18 or 19 horses PP 1 is the second gate as the first gate is left open if there are less than 20. They then alternate between the outside and inside gates being open.

2000 Anees 17/1. Swerved at start, broke awkwardly, failed to menace. 13/19
2001 Songandaprayer. 35/1. hustled to the front along the rail soon after the start, made the pace under pressure to the second turn, then tired from the effort. 13/17
2002 Johannesburg. 8/1. JOHANNESBURG, well placed along the inside from the start, raced in hand to the second turn while within striking distance saving ground, continued inside into the stretch but came up empty when asked. 8/18
2003 Supah Blitz. 43/1. SUPAH BLITZ came out brushing BRANCUSI after the start, saved ground, was checked lightly soon after passing the wire the first time and failed to menace. 13/16
2004 Limehouse. 41/1. LIMEHOUSE was shuffled back a bit along the inside on the first turn, raced in the middle of the pack for six furlongs, saved ground while launching his bid approaching the quarter pole, made a run to reach contention in midstretch but couldn\'t sustain his bid. 4/18
2005 Sort It Out. 67/1. SORT IT OUT never reached contention so it is hard to gauge any effect from starting on the rail. 17/20
2006 Jazil. 24/1. JAZIL swerved in at the start, was unhurried while outrun for six furlongs, continued to save ground while rallying along the rail on the far turn, angled out between foes four wide when entering the upper stretch to make a serious bid but failed to sustain his effort while dead heating with BROTHER DEREK for fourth. 4/20
2007 Sedgefield. 58/1. SEDGEFIELD, forwardly placed near the inside from the outset, raced within easy striking distance into the upper stretch and came up empty. 5/20
2008 Cool Coal Man. 34/1. COOL COAL MAN taken in hand after an alert beginning to race within striking distance along the inside, held on well for seven furlongs and faded. 15/20
2009 West Side Bernie. 32/1. WEST SIDE BERNIE outrun early along the inside, failed to respond when asked to pick up the pace, angled out five wide once in the stretch and could not threaten. 9/19
2010 Lookin at Lucky 6/1. Poster child for rail draw roughed at start and then again soon after, menaced on the turn and flattened out. (note 3/1 in morning line, drifted up to 6/1 because of the post). 6/20
2011 Archarcharch 12/1. Steadied at start, saddle slipped, pulled up. He was vanned off because he appeared to be lame. 15/19
2012 Daddy Long Legs 26/1. Eased, no trouble noted at start. DNF/20
2013 Oxbow 24/1. Bumped at start, made nice move on the rail to get near the lead and flattened out last furlong. 6/19
2014 Vicars in Trouble 20/1. Checked and bounced inside of foes. Got into contention then was eased and ended up 19th. Note starting gate 1 was left open due to scratches. 19/19
2015 Ocho Ocho Ocho 26/1. Taken firmly in hand to rate off Carpe Diem, made mild run on inside and tired late. 14/18
2016 Trojan Nation 42/1. Checked after start, lagged on inside, failed to threaten. 16/20
2017 Lookin at Lee 33/1. Interestingly had the best rail trip in the modern era â€" maybe it was good karma from his father. The abbreviated line notes says “dream inside trip to 1/8” so the rail is not an automatic toss. He settled well back while saving ground, picked up pace on far turn, skimmed the rail and rallied to get the place. 2/20
2018 Firenze Fire 59/1. Edged up between runners early, tracked on the rail into the far turn, angled out into the lane and gave in. 11/20
2019 War of Will 16/1. Found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened. 8/19
2020 Max Player 19/1. MAX PLAYER reserved off of the inside, moved out between rivals four to five wide on the far turn, churned on in traffic and improved position. 5/15

[bluechip21]

Interestingly analysis. One point I\'d add to the 2017 running. I think Thunder Snow blowing the break (or whatever happened there) might have aided Lookin at Lee a bit there at the start of the race.

Thx for the analysis.

[johnnym]

I did a similar exercise recently
Correct me if I am wrong, since going to a 20 horse field only closers have finished in the $ from the 1 hole.

GL

[confused]

I\'ll take Irad on a tractable horse out of any post position....just as I had Shoemaker on Ferdinand making the entire race from the rail....or Calvin diving to the rail whenever he could, winning his share of these.

[ajkreider]

Didn\'t they change the gate recently to make the 1 less punitive?

Regardless, it\'s not good for KA.  The pluses, are he gets his rail trip if he wants it, and KA seems able to relax behind horses.

[Molesap]

Yes, they first used it in 2020. The gate is something like 15 feet shorter than when they used the auxiliary gate before, so the first post is supposedly not pointing directly into the far turn as it used to do. It is tough to tell but when you look at the replay from 2020 where the first gate is in relation to the rail as the one gate is empty and that might have influenced the gate placement. I also had read that they were going to alternate inside and outside with the open gates, but last year they left the first gate open and then left the remaining four outside gates clear as well. In any case you still have potentially 19 or so other horses bearing down towards the inside to get position before the turn.

In my opinion, if you liked Known Agenda yesterday, I would not immediately toss him today because he drew the rail. Given the history, his morning line odds will likely drift up some and you will be compensated to a degree with the rail draw. Plus, who else do you want on your horse in that situation other than Irad? I think it also makes him the most likely horse to get DQ’d, but he was already that horse anyways.

[TGJB]

They ran a 1 1/4 maiden race there today if anyone wants to take a look.

[wrongly1]

They ran one Saturday night as well, the 8th.  Hernadez going three wide into the turn, what a way to kill a chalk.

[confused]

The break was the least of the problems the rail horse had.  Fighting the rider and too slow anyway.

[PonyBologna]

From a Bloodhorse article last year about the new gate:

\"The horse breaking from the inside post will break farther away from the rail this year, as will the horse on the far outside relative to the outer rail, Jordan said. This is due to the length of the gate being shorter than the two other gates combined while also considering the gap between the two.

The interior of the stalls are an inch and a half wider than the track\'s usual gate, Jordan said, though the dividers between the stalls are narrower.

\"So rather than coming out like from the 1 (post), where it used to be, you\'re almost coming out of the 3 path,\" he said. \"So instead of coming out of the 20, the way it used to be, you\'re almost down to like the 18 or the 17.\"

[yesthatwouldbeme]

This Twitter post has comparative images of old 2-part starting gate vs new one. Def looks like an improvement for the insiders.

https://twitter.com/Gabby_Gaudet_/status/1387800320349196299