Apollo Schpollo – Is 2YO Foundation Necessary?

[Molesap]

The Curse of Apollo is often cited when looking at horses entered into the Kentucky Derby without at least one start as a 2YO. This year, Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich    and Sainthood fit that criterion. The argument is that the Kentucky Derby is such a taxing event that horses need the foundation they get as a 2YO in order to compete. Another often cited reason was that it was such a rough race and horses needed to be able to respond favorably to all of the crowding, bumping and changes in momentum. While it is just two data points, recent events have shown that foundation may not be as important as it was in the past (or these could just be aberrations). In 2018 Justify not only won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2YO, but he continued on and won the Triple Crown. In 2019 Maximum Security crossed the wire first. He debuted on December 20, so he made the cutoff by less than two weeks. The point is that the last two winners of the race when it was run on the traditional first Saturday in May had very little or no seasoning as a 2YO.

As the trend continues towards less preparation for the Derby is it possible that hoses not having raced as a 2YO are not at as big a disadvantage as they were in the past because their opponents are not as well seasoned either? While going 10f for the first time this early in the year is likely a large stressor for a 3YO, those two winners I cited were close to or on the lead, which means they did not have the same type of rough trips that many get when running in midpack or coming from behind. Is seasoning more of requirement for a horse in midpack or further? I have not seen it argued this way, but could have Maximum Security’s disqualification been partially a result of his lack of seasoning? Obviously questions we do not have answers for but things you likely want to think about when considering using or tossing one of the 2YO DNR’s (did not race) this year.

For what it is worth, Rock Your World missed his 2YO start by 16 hours as he made his debut on New Year’s Day. He worked 18 times as a 2YO so that has to be worth something. His first recorded work was in June, then he had 3 works in July, 1 in August and ended up on the shelf for almost two months. He started up again with 4 works in October, 5 in November and 4 in December prior to his debut on New Year’s Day. Soup and Sandwich only worked seven times as a 2YO. He had 4 works in April/May, then was off until December where he worked three times. He debuted on January 28. Sainthood worked 15 times as a 2YO. He started a sequence where he had 9 works between April and June, but ended up taking a break and not returning until November where he recorded 6 works through the end of the year. He debuted on January 9.

For reference, below is a listing of all the horses that started in the Kentucky Derby without starting as a 2-year-old since 1992. In that time, they have a collective record of 26-1-2-2. If you go back to 1937 (where the records supposedly begin), horses trying to win without 2YO form are 65-1-3-5. I guess the question is just how big of an influence was the lack of 2YO racing on their performance?

Horse-Year-Finish
Rock Your World-2021-?
Soup and Sandwich-2021-?
Sainthood-2021-?
South Bend-2020-15
Money Moves-2020-13
Magnum Moon-2018-19
Justify-2018-1
Battle of Midway-2017-3
Patch-2017-14
Materiality-2015-6
Verrazano-2013-14
Bodemeister-2012-2
Midnight Interlude-2011-16
Summer Bird-2009-6
Dunkirk-2009-11
Curlin-2007-3
Showing Up-2006-6
Greeley\'s Galaxy-2005-11
Song of the Sword-2004-11
Atswhatimtalknbout-2003-4
Wheelaway-2000-5
Curule-2000-7
Trippi-2000-11
Desert Hero-1999-13
Valhol-1999-15
Pulpit-1997-4
Strodes Creek-1994-2
Devil His Due-1992-12
Disposal-1992-18

[confused]

As someone who raced about 75 horses that he himself bred, let me pitch in with what is more than an idea about the failure to race as a 2 year old.  If they don\'t make it to the races before they turn 3 it\'s usually because they had some sort of \'problem\' as a 2year old.  Most of the problems were in the legs and for most of them they were able to grow out of the problem.

So do you really want to bet on a horse like that in a race like this?

[TGJB]

Or even if it’s not a soundness issue, if they weren’t developed enough to run at two, you’re asking them to come a long way in a short time, and to earn points while doing it, which puts an immature horse under a lot of stress. Yeah, it can be doneâ€" Baffert did it, and Asmussen came close (Curlin), but it’s toughâ€" special horses, special trainers.

[ajkreider]

Something worth noting about Rock Your World\'s race shapes:

TG\'s average coming out is around :22, which is pretty middle of the pack.  However, his first two races on the turf were :22.5 each.  His lone break in a dirt race was :21.1.  That\'s the quickest break of any horse in a route in here.

[TGJB]

The early drafts of the race shapes can be used to compare the horses early speed to each other, but don’t take those times literally. They will change in the final product.