My Belmont Bet

[richiebee]

He\'s in the TG Derby package and it is difficult (for me) to see that in the
Wood he earned a TG # two points faster than his stablemate, who nailed him on
the wire. Twas a costly nail.

Dynamic One\'s ground loss aided number in the Wood actually makes him one of
the faster contenders in this year\'s Derby. After all these years of trying to
ignore raw time (knowing that the track maintenance crew has more of a hand in
this than trainers, vets or chemists), I am still trying to figure out if it
was trotters or pacers who finished the Wood in 1:54.49
 
I hope either that Dynamic One runs a bad Derby (hey its TAP) or skips Derby
and runs in the Peter Pan to get a race over Belmont. Or goes right to the
Belmont off works. Because if DO is standing in the gate for the 2021 Belmont,
no matter what his performance figures, no matter what he has done between his
Wood runner up finish and June 5, 2021, I will be betting him to win.

DO\'s sire is Union Rags, beaten favorite in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, winner of
2012 Belmont Stakes.

The TG sheet for DO shows the dam to be Beat the Drums, who was winless and
before DO had produced two runners who made very little impact.

Further pedigree investigation reveals that the dam of Beat The Drums is Storm
Flag Flying. The dam of Storm Flag Flying is My Flag. The dam of My Flag is
Personal Ensign. That means that the second, third and fourth dams of Dynamic
One won multiple stakes at Belmont and oh by the way each of them was a
Breeders Cup winner.

[toppled]

He\'s my bomb in the Derby to definitely hit the board.  If you throw out that 1/23 race at GP, look at his sheet, then go to the archives & look at the 2014 Derby and look at Commanding Curve\'s sheet.  I was all over Commanding Curve and even though he didn\'t win, the exacta with the favorite paid over $300 and bailed me out at the only Derby I\'ve ever attended. I have a friend who went with me that day & he still thanks me for the California Chrome/Commanding Curve exacta.

[bluechip21]

Without giving any of JB\'s data away, I think there is another horse that better mimics the Commanding Curve sheet.

[toppled]

I can see who you\'re talking about, that horse is going to be bet a lot more than Dynamic One will because he\'s about 2 points higher on his 2YO top and the subsequent paired # before moving forward in the race before the Derby, and is faster going into the Derby. He\'ll get some play from the public handicappers too.

I still think just by how close Dynamic One\'s numbers on his 2yo top & the pairing at 3 & then the forward move in the final Derby prep are to Commanding Curve\'s #s stands out, at least to me.

[dglass2232]

I thought he might be talking about ROMBAUER. Paired 2yo top off bench, moved forward second off layoff, sitting on another move forward in Derby? I believe that is what Commanding Curve did?

[Molesap]

I am pretty sure the connections on Rombauer have decided to pass the Derby.

[toppled]

Rombauer is too slow that a move similar to CC\'s move wouldn\'t have gotten him close if he started.  If bluechip\'s horse makes a similar move he can win the race.  I don\'t think my horse can win, but he can get in the exacta or tri.  Remember, when CC made his move to get 2nd, Chrome had already put the race away.

[bluechip21]

Sorry for being cryptic. PDF page #25 is the horse I was referring to.

[toppled]

I never would have guessed that was the horse you are talking about.  I thought for sure you were talking about the horse on P16.

[ajkreider]

That horse has also not gone backwards through 5 races.

[RICH]

and I am looking at page 13

[trackjohn]

This horse (given the connections) will be 3-4 times the price of the other two mentioned on this string... good to see that the TG board is showing some life!!

John

[bluechip21]

I was initially high on this horse until I took a closer look at the latest race. And by my eye, he looked at bit gassed going through the wire. But an interesting pattern nonetheless.

In response to @toppled (to not make multiple replies on this thread). p16 has the best looking pattern of all of these, IMO. He will certainly be on my tickets. But questions do exist...

[johnnym]

Can we just say what post # he is based on the race shape sheet?
Don’t think my sheet #s are the same using a Apple product.
My personal favorite sheet is post #13
Thanks
GL
John

[bluechip21]

Sure. #13 is live and has a sheet almost identical as past horses from the same barn in this race (albeit slower... but i\'ll attribute that to no lasix).

The horse I am referring to in my comments is post #22. Very similar to lookin at lee (2017) and commanding curve (2014) in past years.