Derby Fav

[johnnym]

Looking over the past derby seminars, the variance of tops to Xs being run between 2 preps 3 preps and 4 preps speak for themselves.

Wonder what the data says for 1 prep?

As far as preps go, I am assuming any race run as a three year old prior to the derby is considered a prep?

Pletcher has won Derbies with a two prep horse and a three prep horse.
O’Neil won both of his with two prep horses.

Looking forward to the seminar..

[ajkreider]

Big Brown is another who broke his maiden on turf.  Also one that lacked foundation.

Finished up the career with a pretty fast turf win, if memory serves.

[Molesap]

I wondered about one prep horses as well. Looking at one prep going into the Derby did not yield anything too interesting as far as I was concerned. Since the archives go back to 1997, I used that as a starting date and looked through to find any starters with one prep. There were only seven horses that had one prep. Two were from Saeed bin Suroor, four were from Aidan O’Brien and one was from William Currin. Most were foreign horses and a couple had won the UAE Derby. Analysis was difficult as there a couple of horses that had no 2YO foreign figures. I have summarized their performances below. The data points are few in nearly 25 years and they were a mixed bag. A new top, a couple of paired tops, and couple of X’s including one being eased and couple where there were not any 3YO figure to make an assessment. I also added the only entrant in that time span without a prep.

0 Prep Race
1999 Worldly Manner - 9/9 8.5 (paired top); 5/1 6.25 (new top) bin Suroor, Saeed

1 Prep Race
2000 China Vista - 3/25 8.00 (top â€" only figure); 5/6 5.50 (new top) bin Suroor, Saeed
2001 Express Tour â€" 3/24 2.00 (top â€" 2YO top 5.00); 5/5 7.25 (X) bin Suroor, Saeed
2002 Johannesburg â€" 4/7 ?.?? (no figure â€" 2YO Top 6.25); 5/4 6.25 (paired 2YO top ) O\'Brien, Aidan P.
2002 Castle Gandolfo â€" 4/6 ?.?? (no figure â€" no 2YO figures); 5/4 7.00 () O\'Brien, Aidan P.
2003 Otta Here â€" 3/29 8.25 (2YO top 2.75); 5/3 3.25 (paired 2YO top) Currin, William L.
2012 Daddy long Legs â€" 3/31 5.00 (2YO top 7.75); 5/5 XX (eased â€" no figure) O’Brien, Aidan P.
2013 Lines of Battle â€" 3/30 4.25 (2YO top 9.00); 5/4 5.00 (paired 3YO top) O’Brien, Aidan P.

[JohnTChance]

About ROCK YOUR WORLD and jockey Joel Rosario: Of course, Rosario is a great jockey and a positive asset, especially because he’s been Sadler’s go-to boy. Yet I’ve been stunned to watch Rosario get off poorly so many times recently, it’s pretty comical. On opening day at Keeneland this meet, he was slam-dunk OP/missed the break completely 4 times! It was stunning to watch. [On the other hand, we\'ve all seen him ride speedball KNICKS GO to big wins.] Otherwise, all too often it seems, it’s as if he purposely drops back in the opening quarter so as to be behind the field, only to necessitate a 5-wide trip for his closing kick. So buyer beware. Missing the break in the Derby is toast.

It seems the winning ThoroGraph for this Derby will be a 0-ish. A 0.5? A 0.75? Unless someone can wire the field with a 1w1w trip and finish first with a 1.25, like MAXIMUM SECURITY did.

Which means that ROCK YOUR WORLD will have to improve from his Santa Anita Derby wire job. The argument FOR that scenario is the undeniable truth that since mid-March (like last year), Sadler’s horses have exploded into Oaklawn. Strong er… enhancements have occurred. When the money showed, his horses have run huge the in the past month. [In the first half of that meet, he was a bet against. But it all changed on a dime in mid-March.] Are these enhancements continuing to happen in Kentucky? Watch the skies. The argument AGAINST any Derby improvement for RYW is, well, the idea that maybe RYW’s Santa Anita Derby level is the full-toll expenditure already. And a pair-up won’t be enough. Plus, John Sadler hasn’t been a guy that historically does well with [Derby trail] 3-year olds or even shippers into Kentucky. He’s been erratic there.

[johnnym]

RYW is my pick currently.
Definitely wasn’t excited about the jock change that is for sure.
But I doubt Joel is gonna pussyfoot on derby day.
They draw inside it may be a wire job.

GL

[Molesap]

Heard that they are on the fence for Caddo River - he may be another more than likely going to the Preakness. That\'s a tough decision if you train Essential Quality as Caddo River certainly was going to add speed to the field and likely push Rock Your World early. That would give the favorite something to run at. The way it is going, Rock Your World may end up as the lone speed as he ran Medina Spirit and Dream Shake off their feet and Santa Anita. Not sure Hot Rod Charlie is quick enough early or Midnight Bourbon.

[boardedup]

Wasn’t that the situation with Mendolsohn?  Freaked turf to dirt and then didn’t run anywhere near as well the next couple if I’m remembering correctly? There was plenty of talk here in the forum expecting the forward move or at least a pair up in KY that didn’t materialize. But this one “should” be on the lead, maybe a fairly “easy” one to boot.  

How long has it been since someone has won not being on the front end? Orb, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, they were a while ago already.  Seems like lately it’s mandatory to be stalking or on the pace. That’s one of the main reasons I don’t want a short price on the most decorated and likely post time favorite at all.

[boardedup]

Sigh... guess I’ll have to wait a little while to torch off my money backing him... I really did think I might end up betting the ml favorite this year for the first time in, I don’t know, close to forever. Then I was thinking, great now you’ll get a price on him.  I mean,  Was his AK derby really “that bad?”  One subpar effort, 3rd by a head in a grade 1 million dollar race and forget about it.  Tough justice indeed.

[boardedup]

It seems EQ doesn’t like being anywhere but outside.  Jock kinda confirmed it in a a post BG interview.  That’s pretty problematic in a 20 horse field.

[dsipes]

KNOWN AGENDA\'s sheet is interesting.  Improved substantially (11 to 3 1/2) when dropping to the allowance race and getting blinkers.  Then another nice 2 point improvement in Florida Derby.  Just wondering if your opinion will be he\'s had too much development from 2yo year to Florida Derby?

[RICH]

your reading it wrong, he has not had that much improvement off his 2 yr top

its not the 11

[ajkreider]

I believe that \"other number\" is the one JB revised.  It makes the horse a win candidate as opposed to a toss as a bounce candidate.

[TGJB]

Yes revised, and it\'s right. Only two turn race on the day, he and Greatest Honor were way clear. Until they came back and ran fast it was tough to know.

From what I\'ve seen on their board Jake has a lot of them similar to us, but I\'m dying to see what they did with La Derby and Wood days. Both were very tricky. Lots of important horses will be coming out of those days, and not just in the Derby. Good luck to the only figure maker who assumes tracks don\'t change speed.

[johnnym]

Revised #?

[confused]

Whoops, went back and realize I made a mistake....EQ\'s last 3 races were all about the same.  Not surprising coming out of that barn.