Derby Fav

[Bet Twice]

Not me, if he even runs.

[confused]

Can we assume that Essential Quality\'s Blue Grass was slow because it was a normal regression from his best races or did it signal something else?  As I see things now, Known Agenda, Midnight Bourbon, and O Besos all have a right to move forward from races that were slower, but were improvements to their previous runs.  If so, they will be formidable challengers unless EQ gets all the way back to his best.

No?

[toppled]

BRIS (102 prior top 101 in BC) DRF (97 up from 96 in the SW & 95 in the BC) and Rags (6.25 from paired 7.75s)) all gave Essential Quality his fastest figure in the Bluegrass. Timeform US had EQ pairing his Southwest & Bluegrass (118) Since EQ\'s TG was -.5 in the Southwest, unless Jerry saw the race different than the others, I\'d expect a forward move further into the negatives figures, at least a -1.

Since EQ has been winning all his stakes races all the figures shown have been released for free by the original source: BRIS in their free Derby PPs, DRF in their Kentucky Derby watches, Rags from their Twitter page and TG from the Redboard Room,and TimeformUS from their Journey to the 2021 Triple Crown therefore no unreleased proprietary data was used in this post.

[toppled]

Well Done! Concert Tour is out of the Derby:  https://www.drf.com/news/concert-tour-miss-kentucky-derby-targets-preakness

[KeithB]

I think that he will get a \"0\". Moving him back a little from the negative 1/2 he got in the Southwest.

[confused]

Thanks for this, particularly those other than BRIS.  However, BRIS makes no ground loss adjustment and EQ\'s Southwest and BC Juvenile both included significant ground loss.  To me, at least, that points to those being much faster races for him.  Of course, there was no ground loss for EQ in the Blue Grass and he was all out to win.  A regression to me.

[Fairmount1]

As King Fury draws closer to entry, I\'ll be using him also possibly if he draws in.

[Molesap]

Well according to DRF you are getting pretty close:

1-Essential Quality
2-Hot Rod Charlie
3-Super Stock
4-Like the King
5-Known Agenda
6-Rock Your World
7-Bourbonic
8-Medina Spirit
9-Midnight Bourbon
10-Mandaloun
11-Caddo River
12-Highly Motivated
13-Helium
14-Soup and Sandwich
15-Dynamic One
16-Sainthood
17-Hidden Stash
18-Dream Shake
19-O Besos
20-Get Her Number
21-King Fury
22-Keepmeinmind

[Fairmount1]

Decision on Dream Shake (Pay Day Mile?) puts Fury in or keeps him out it appears.  

On another West Coast decision note, Rock Your World is going to be heavily, heavily bet with the move of Rosario taking the mount now.  Even possible he is just a tick below EQ for Favoritism?  Dare I say it is possible he could go favored with the 100 Beyer sticking out on the page and also an undefeated record including turf starts bringing to mind Barbaro and Big Brown as undefeated, favored, Derby winners with turf beginnings?  

Interesting race this year.

[johnnym]

His stride reminds me of Barbaro.
Looked at the derby special today,interesting indeed.

[Molesap]

Two weeks in early spring to keep twenty 3Y0 healthy? There may be more defections, but perhaps not purposeful. How many times has someone stubbed their toe going into this race? Thousand Words (although that would be of no help to the AE’s at that point), King Guillermo, Finnick the Fierce, Art Collector, Omaha Beach, and Haikal all fairly recently. Plus some past significant scratches such as Uncle Mo, I Want Revenge, and AP Indy. There are a ton I did not mention or forgot I am sure as well.

Seems like this year the mood is not the typical I have enough points and I am running scenario with a number of  apparently healthy horses waiting for the Preakness or going in a different spot. I think it is better than even money that King Fury has a chance to go if he wants - even if it means getting in from the AE list.

[jbelfior]

Rock Your World certainly has the talent. Would be interested in the stats on a runner trying dirt for the second time after previously  running on turf only. Have never been a fan of coming back with them. Certainly not at 4/1 in a 20 horse field.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[johnnym]

I would lean towards a move forward, since the first time on it was a positive result. Grass horses tend to run good at the downs as well.

Highly Motivated second time around two turns, does he move forward?
Very interesting derby #s wise.

GL

[TGJB]

Very interesting indeed, both the Derby and Oaks. I’ve started to put together the seminar, and there is no shortage of pure sheets related handicapping things to talk about.

[richiebee]

Yes interesting a good word.

First could we stop talking about Rock Your World as a \"turf horse?\" Two starts
turf, one dirt. One stakes win on each surface. My biggest concern if I liked
him would be his relative lack of foundation. If I fancied him I would probably
want to see him have two longer works before Derby preferably at CD.

Maybe later I will search archives (free to all) to investigate history of
Derby runners who broke maiden on turf? Not expecting to find much. The truth
is that the only way we will see what might be considered a \"turf horse\"
running in the Derby is if a Euro turfer or North American runner with strictly
grass 2YO form runs 1-2 in a 100 point prep.

Barbaro and Sea Hero both had 2YO turf form but both (like Rock Your World)
also won major dirt races prior to winning their Derbies. Barbaro won the Holy
Bull and Florida Derby, Sea Hero won the Champagne and campaigned strictly on
dirt as a 3YO prepping for Derby.

Trivia uncovered: (a) Animal Kingdom is the only Kentucky Derby winner to win a
Grade I race at age 5? (b) Paul Mellon, owner of Sea Hero, only owner to win
Kentucky Derby, Epsom Derby (aka The Derby) and Prix Arc de Triomphe.