Following an 0-2X

[wrongly1]

I\'m curious as to how others read how a horse coming off the 0-2-X pattern.  This one has been off for 63 days, for a strong layoff trainer and a strong trainer in general.  It\'s now over four months since the top.  Thoro pattern gives this horse an 88% chance to be off or X.  Guess, I\'m surprised at how poorly the thoro pattern is.  Then again this horse is the favorite, toss or have faith in the pharmaceuticals.

[prist]

You haven\'t provided enough information to answer your question. How old is the horse? How was the top earned? What number looks good in the race today? Stuff like that.

In general, I don\'t think you can even call this particular situation a 02X because of the 63 day layoff. Jerry can correct me if I\'m wrong.

The most important part of the analysis is the top. Is the top positive, or negative? Also, the 02X, and the race today, all have to be with the horse taking regular turns coming back to the track. That\'s why I\'m questioning the 02X in your example because of the 2 month layoff after the X.

Even the X can be an important part of the analysis here ... or so I\'ve been told. I recall Len Friedman hated the O2X LOUIS QUATORZE was on going into the Preakness because of the \"ugly\" X he got in the Derby ... even though the top was positive up to that point. His position really confused me at the time.

Appreciate the question. Need more of this on the board.

[wrongly1]

The race today is following the O-2-X, not looking for a repeat of the X but if he can run a pair of his top or will he be off, what percentage of the time.  Given the layoff.  I\'ll give more info after the race.

[wrongly1]

Thee horse was Factor This.  Didn\'t matter because I went 5 deep and didn\'t use the winner.  I would still like to hear what percentage Jerry you would have given that horse to run an off race.  Would it have been as high as the thoro pattern?

[TGJB]

0-2-X is a definition, and by itself is neither good nor bad. Whether I would expect the horse to run well would depend on a lot of things, including age and what surface the horse has been running on (Xs on grass are not good in general). Timing matters, how big the top was matters, as well as the horse’s history and pattern. Has he run well following non efforts before? How long between his last two tops?

By definition Factor This was coming off an 0-2-X, but to me the short term pattern was irrelevant. He was a grass horse with a zero and a lot of 2’s who ran poorly, and now was coming off a break.

[wrongly1]

Jerry

Thanks!

[prist]

I think you were on the right horse even though it didn\'t work out. I had him at 8/5 and thought he offered a little value. Shit happens as you can see here with the two longest shots on the board getting in the money.

[FrankD.]

This was no where near an 0-2-X, one of the most misunderstood patterns here.
-0, -2.1, -5.3
The race was 63 days ago, it clearly states in the definition the races cannot be more than 42 days apart.

I bet the nag as well but this was no 0-2-X.