Question regarding Lasix and TG figures

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

I am starting with the assumption that (even absent bleeding) horses run a little bit faster with Lasix than without it.  My question is how you approach a race in which all the horses have prior form with Lasix but run without it today (e.g., a stakes race) in the middle of a card with Lasix allowed for most horses.  If you emphasize a variant based on how fast all the races on the card are run (the constant track speed approach), the stakes horses will get slower figures than if you emphasize how well each horse runs relative to its prior form (the projection method approach).

EDIT:  Thinking about it further, I suppose the same question applies in reverse when you have newly turned 3yos running on Lasix for the first time.  Do you assume they\'ll get a Lasix-induced improvement or look just run back to their prior form?

[TGJB]

First, I don’t assume the track stays the same speed (see “Changing Track Speeds” in the Archives section). And I don’t assume that Lasix makes non bleeders faster. There’s supposed to be a big Lasix study in the works, in the unlikely event it’s done right we might find out more about that.

Basically, you makes figures off the horses that run well, or at least run a representative race. You don’t make them off the ones who run poorly, which is what happens when horses bleed (choke). As a practical matter if more run poorly you have less data points to work with, which makes getting it right trickier.

[BitPlayer]

Thanks for your answer.

I understand that tracks don\'t stay the same speed.  My question was more about the relative weight you give the time of a race (admittedly small relative to other figure makers, although I think you pushed back on Paul Matties\'s assertion that you seemed to ignore it entirely) versus past figures of the horses and whether those relative weights are changed if horses are going on or off Lasix.  You\'ve answered my question.

I\'m surprised you don\'t think Lasix makes non-bleeders run faster. I thought the 5-pound penalty for running on Lasix you proposed some time ago was based on that assumption and the data you had at hand.  Rather than a study, implementing your suggestion would likely provide more informative results.  Would trainers giving up Lasix start winning more races?

[TGJB]

5 pounds (1 point) is an estimate, and in the non Lasix stakes all would race without it. So if it’s a point, it would effectively make them all go 1/5 slower at 6f, which would play out the same as a slight change in track speed for one race, which we deal with all the time.

[JohnTChance]

“And I don’t assume that Lasix makes non bleeders faster...”

So when that first-time lasix European entry in the Breeder’s Cup won at 75-1, what do you assume happened there?

1: Lasix alone provoked the performance enhancement?
2: Lasix was a masking agent to some auxiliary rocket fuel injected?
3: Neither.

[TGJB]

4- it was a bleeder?

[Bet Twice]

John is still sore about that one.  I am too....was live to 6 horses in a number of multi race wagers.

[JohnTChance]

All runners bleed. That’s a given. So my question remains unanswered.