73 so far

[Rich Curtis]

Are you one of those people who tried to screw Bernie Sanders over the Joe Rogan \"endorsement\"?

[Rich Curtis]

Upon reflection, I apologize. I went with what I thought would be best for the rhythm of the sentence instead of going with what I knew was right. That was cheap on my part. Please fix it for me.

[TGJB]

Nah, I wouldn’t even have commented except it was you. Who is Joe Rogan? The guy Joan Baez sang about at Woodstock?

Amy price starting to drop.

[Rich Curtis]

Rogan has a wildly popular podcast. His audience is massive and young. And he grants himself the comedian\'s license to be politically incorrect and over the top.

Bernie appeared on the podcast because Rogan\'s audience is a dream audience for him. Rogan liked him and later more or less endorsed him.

The issue is whether Bernie\'s touting of Rogan\'s endorsement implied Bernie\'s approval of the politically incorrect stuff.

Of course Bernie\'s enemies then jumped on this, almost all of them in bad faith, in my opinion.

I am not a big Amy fan, and she now has to play on less hospitable turf, but I will give her this: She is one cool customer under fire. She has earned her way into contention.

[Boscar Obarra]

pretty obvious to me , that the larger the field of players, the more \'random\' the winner will be .

 impossible to win with only short priced or even medium priced horses ,as others will by luck, catch whatever bombs happen to hit .

 the only way chalky play wins , is if it\'s an all chalk result.   not likely .

[hellersorr]

I\'m not the world\'s biggest Nate Silver fan but in today\'s performances ratings he has Bernie going to the convention with an average figure of two or so, while Amy would enter with something like a TWENTY-two.

Personally, I think she can work down to a ten or twelve - maybe even an eight - as a lightly raced, improving filly against older competitors with their accompanying health issues.

Still a long way from a two, though.  Plus she\'ll have to close from way back and weave her way through lots of traffic without checking.  

Tab for show.

[TGJB]

Bernie has a ceiling of 40% of the D vote, which is what he and Warren have been cutting up. He wins only as long as the moderates are split. If they go to a brokered convention it\'s hard to see them giving the nod to someone who represents a minority of the party, is not even a member of that party, and takes the general from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on Socialism.

What\'s happening with Amy has been too sudden for the polls to catch, as it was in N.H.-- they use a rolling time period, not real time. Next couple of states will tell the tale as to whether she has a real shot. She is by far the best public speaker in the race, and has the least baggage (so far), and people are starting to pay attention.

600 pound gorilla is clearly Bloomberg.

[Rich Curtis]

If the Democrats plan on showing up at a contested convention and nominating someone like Klobuchar while Bernie has a significant lead in delegates, well, did you see French Connection 2? They might want to \"bring some water.\"

[TGJB]

Under the new rules the superdelegates don\'t get to vote in the first round, but do in the second, and I think all delegates are released. Sanders would have to be damn close to 50% in the first round to have any shot under those circumstances. He\'s nowhere near that now, with the moderates split, playing  in his own backyard. Whoever is the leading moderate would get it, and it would get sticky if two of them are close. And yes, there would be some screaming going on.

Best guess is Biden and Warren drop out before super Tuesday, when Bloomberg comes in. By that time either Amy or Pete should have established a clear lead over the other, and it will come down the that one, Bloomberg, and Sanders.

[holybull95]

Looks like the NHC Strategy string has angled out to the 5 path and now includes political \'capping....and that\'s ok.  Warren\'s only chance for an award is to be the \"Native American\" on the ticket as VP....Bernie beat Pete in NH by 2 points but they both received the same number of delegates (9 each)....don\'t see that mentioned in the media too much....there is one soon to be player that started in the auxillary gate, took back, will drop to the rail and close fast in the last sixteenth...HRC!

[Rich Curtis]

\"Bernie beat Pete in NH by 2 points but they both received the same number of delegates (9 each)....don\'t see that mentioned in the media too much\"

Given the Iowa farce, that\'s like asking Mrs Lincoln to critique the OTHER play that night.

[hellersorr]

It is pretty funny, after all the Democratic bellyaching about the electoral college superseding the popular vote, to see the early leader in the popular vote in the Democratic primary not having the most delegates.

[hellersorr]

The problem for the Democratic candidate in the general election, if it ain\'t Bernie, is:  Where do all those Bernie supporters go if Bernie enters the first round at the convention with a plurality but is ultimately denied the nomination?

The Democratic party NEEDS those votes in the general election and there will be a lot of them it does NOT get.

[Rich Curtis]

I think you are employing way too much ideological \"lane theory\" and not nearly enough demographic/class \"lane theory.\"

But that, as they say, is why they run around the racetrack. We will know soon enough.

I also think a lot of people are doing way too much early, fine-line weighing of things like delegates and percentages. They are weighing with a cocaine scale that is soon going to be stepped on by an elephant, or a donkey, whatever, one of those big things.

[Rich Curtis]

I have always told people that BitPlayer was the most underrated poster on this board, but you have been making it increasingly likely that this, too, will be decided at a contested convention.