73 so far

[TGJB]

Looks like 73 of our guys made it into the NHC, people are still trickling in.

[mbeychok]

And one of \"our guys\" made the NHC HALL OF FAME.. Congrats to Roger Cettina. Well deserved.

[bluechip21]

Is there a particular way to access the files? I don’t believe I can get them without hitting the pay wall. Thanks!

[TGJB]

Call the office tomorrow and ask for Al or Tim.

[TGJB]

...I was misinformed. Total head count stands at 71.

[TGJB]

Looks like 2 in the top 10, and Deicke finished 20th.

[BitPlayer]

Interesting article on NHC strategy by a seasoned, computer-oriented contest player:

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2020/02/11/how-to-beat-the-best-in-the-world-at-the-nhc-with-minimal-work/

Spoiler:  Stabbing is recommended

[bluechip21]

First time player here, and I missed the cut my a momentous case of dyslexia (and beers, perhaps). But to me it was clear as day that finding 3 or 4 cap horses presented the best route to day 3 versus playing 4 or 5 to 1 all day. Is this news to the people who have actually played before this year? Find the best horse above X price. People are going to rail on anyone who had that GG 9 horse once the plays come out, but as Steve Byk said on his show “that was a thorograph horse!” ... indeed it was.

[BitPlayer]

The article brought back memories of Miff\'s opinions regarding the contest when he used to post here. See, e.g., https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,90542,90634#msg-90634

The contest scene is too rich for my blood, but I do enjoy thinking about the strategies involved.  Bluechip, I don\'t think it is a particular revelation that price horses are critical, although I do recall a post-contest narrative last year regarding someone who had reached the final table (maybe the winner?) by betting more short-priced horses than average.  In terms of betting the best horse above X to 1, my takeaway from the article is that X may be a bigger number than most people have in mind.

[colin12]

I think that the math is irrefutable and the contest format should change but it won’t. It’s frustrating to a guy like tony zhou because he is the best handicapper in the country and never gets the award for it. The eclipse award should be given to the players who consistently cash in big tournaments with different formats not someone who mined 20-1 shots. I really respect tony for speaking up way too much griping at the nhc and way too little problem solving.

[bluechip21]

I’m sure Tony is a fantastic person and an even better horseplayer. I’m also sure he gets rewarded through his handicapping at the windows 2000x than what I do. However that is not how this particular game is to be played (NHC). Maybe this year is an outlier, and someone grinding away short prices will win. But I don’t see it the way they choose races with large / even fields. To be fair to your point, I always thought it was funny that the winner of this contest got the eclipse award vs one with a more established track record. Hell, if I had gotten lucky enough, I damn sure would’ve known I should not be giving that speech. Part of the prize I suppose? I just really hate these sour grapes from all these horseplayers coming out saying “the takeout sucks and all the people that did well blindly played bombs.” That simply cannot be further away from the truth. A lot who finished in the top 10 are going to take so much unjust heat, and for what? They gamed the system? ... to that I say, give me a break. You’re a horseplayer and should’ve figured that out years ago (rhetorically speaking, of course.)

[P-Dub]

bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I’m sure Tony is a fantastic person and an even
> better horseplayer. I’m also sure he gets
> rewarded through his handicapping at the windows
> 2000x than what I do. However that is not how this
> particular game is to be played (NHC). Maybe this
> year is an outlier, and someone grinding away
> short prices will win. But I don’t see it the
> way they choose races with large / even fields. To
> be fair to your point, I always thought it was
> funny that the winner of this contest got the
> eclipse award vs one with a more established track
> record. Hell, if I had gotten lucky enough, I damn
> sure would’ve known I should not be giving that
> speech. Part of the prize I suppose? I just really
> hate these sour grapes from all these horseplayers
> coming out saying “the takeout sucks and all the
> people that did well blindly played bombs.” That
> simply cannot be further away from the truth. A
> lot who finished in the top 10 are going to take
> so much unjust heat, and for what? They gamed the
> system? ... to that I say, give me a break.
> You’re a horseplayer and should’ve figured
> that out years ago (rhetorically speaking, of
> course.)

Last I checked the way you keep score at the track is by how much you take home.

I would rather hit one 40-1 shot, than six 5-1 shots. Why is the guy that hit more short priced winners \"better\" than the guy who hit the 40-1 shot??......and why is it just assumed that hitting long shots is just blind luck??

[colin12]

Bluechip you are right no one has gamed the system and many people strictly play 20-1 shots in every race because it is an effective strategy given the rules of the tournament. I think tony is a little upset with himself that it took him 5 years of losing to figure that out. My point is that they should not give the eclipse to the winner of this tournament as it does fairly represent who the best handicapper is day in and day out over the course of the year but that like the rules of the tournament are not going to change as the nhc actually gets some press coverage that is positive and the sport needs that badly.

[Rich Curtis]

\"It’s frustrating to a guy like tony zhou because he is the best handicapper in the country and never gets the award for it.\"

The single best thing about this sport...indeed, one of the precious few remaining great things about this sport, is that it doesn\'t matter what anybody thinks. You do your handicapping. You make your bets. You get your results. Fuc# what anybody thinks. Awards? Who gives a shi#? Send an Indian up there to pick the damn thing up, like Brando. Or blow the damn ceremony off and play your clarinet, like Woody Allen.

[TGJB]

Indian?