McKinzie-Rosario

[Silver Charm]

Help me out here but isn\'t Jim Pegram the Agent for Mike Smith who was taken off a horse owned by Mike Pegram? This is not an easy horse to ride in my opinion.

Seems to find ways to lose races he should win. Perhaps its the riders fault. Rosario got put on Beach Patrol a couple of years back and seemed to fit like a glove. Maybe its as simple as that.  

Also how proven is he at a Mile and Quarter? Not a really deep field of older handicap horses. That last race for McKinzie looked kinda dull to me. I\'m sure they didn\'t want to POP ONE there with the big one coming up next. So if that\'s the case why switch out the Jock? I don\'t really know where to look but I may be looking elsewhere here with this one

[Molesap]

I think Rosario is at the top of his game right now, but sometimes his rides end up as all or nothing propositions. Still, I suspect he fits this horse, so I have no problem with the switch.

I agree that Mckinzie looked dull last out, but most services do not show a large decrement in his speed figure from that race if any at all (in fact Equibase has it as his fastest race â€" ever), but visually he looked off to me. Maybe any time you see a horse at 30 cents on a dollar not make up any ground late, it will look like a dull performance. I also worry about Baffert’s ability to hold a horse together through an entire 4YO season as some of his charges that age seem to tail off later in the year.

People have argued that there is not enough data to judge the ability to get 1 1/4 miles, but I lean towards the idea that it is certainly not his best distance. Just the fact that there is not much data at that distance might tell you something. His first try at the distance was in the BC Classic at CD where he did not really run a step for whatever reason so that performance may have occurred with any distance. Then he lost by a nose in the SA Handicap to Gift Box and received the “bi” designation for boring in â€" this is sometimes a sign of a tired horse. I know Baffert said before the Whitney that he had never won that race and was looking forward to competing in it, but why go to NY to race in the Whitney when he had a slightly bigger purse and arguably a much weaker field by staying home in the Pacific Classic at Dmr? Maybe it was that the Whitney was two weeks earlier, so there was more rest coming into the Awesome Again, maybe it was that he had flashbacks to Arrogate’s performances at Dmr leading up to the Breeder’s Cup or maybe, just maybe it had something to do with the fact that the Whitney is 9f while the Pacific Classic is at 10f.

None of the evidence is overwhelming, but the main question is can he get the 10f faster than everyone else, even if this is not his ideal distance? As a corollary, what price am I going to get on him for doing that? He has lost at half of his races this year where they were situations where he should have won, so do you want a really short price on a horse who may be suspect at the distance who has already shown he can find a number of ways not to win a race? I do think he is the best horse â€" by far, but can you have any confidence in him or anyone else? I hate the Classic this year.

[TGJB]

You had me at “decrement”.

[Bet Twice]

Good post- all good points.

[TempletonPeck]

Context made it obvious, but I can admit I went to the dictionary to confirm it wasn\'t a Molesap original. 50 cent word, if not better.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> You had me at “decrement”.


Maybe he thinks McKinzie is \"excrement\"??