Preakness Prices & Opportunities

[Tavasco]

According to the Pimlico Race Course tote board at 7 p.m. ET Friday. Apparently these the prices as of Friday evening tend to closely approximate the race time odds.

Understanding perceived opportunities are in the end subjective no matter how strong ones opinion is. So we consider it an opportunity when the estimated win probability is noticeable greater or lesser than we consider appropriate.

Note - TG analysis has the disadvantage of projected odds as of Wednesday or Thursday. Horses they like to run well and consider bettable @ 10/1 are a different proposition @ 9/2 for instance. I have not looked at TG\'s Preakness analysis so any cracks I might make are coincidental.

#04 Improbable 5/2
? given BB\'s win % if he\'s an underlay he\'s not a terrible one.

#02 Bourbon War 9/2
I\'ve read that no rags sheet player worth his salt would not bet Bourbon War. Apparently they all got out early else this one is headed to co-favoritism.

#07 Always Smiling 5/1
Hometown crowd and winning record is enough to attract a lot of action.

Note win betting the #2 & #7 is of comparable value as using #4 Bafferts Favorite at these prices.

#01 War of Will 7/1
Looks like he won\'t have to carry as much expectation as originally estimated. IMHO the two last off the board finishes scared away many to the benefit of his backers. If you liked him earlier you like him more today.

#05 Owendale 9/1
Not surprising he\'s comparable to #12

#12 Anothertwistafate 10/1
I don\'t expect to see this one double digits ever again. (I\'m a GG fan)

So dutching the 1,5 12 is a little short of the favorites probability

#13 Win Win Win 12/1
add this one to the prior 3 gets  about the same chance of winning as using the second and 3rd choices

#03 Warrior\'s Charge 16/1
Seemingly this one will be part of the pace and if you don\'t think he\'ll stop bet him with both hands.

#09 Bodexpress   17/1  
Still has fans but you won\'t find them among those who don\'t know what they don\'t know

#08 Signalman 18/1
OK I\'ll draw a line through the FOY his first outing this tear with suicidal pace. Otherwise he\'s never been off the board and in some of the most prominent 2 y/o races. My opinion is a fast pace today is to his advantage don\'t be too surprised if he is not as far back as you expect like near his buddy Improbable mid race.

#11 Laughing Fox 23/1
? looks an insignificant underlay to me

#06 Market King 25/1
? looks an insignificant underlay to me

#10 Everfast 30/1
? looks an insignificant underlay to me

Strategy?
Everyone has their own and I\'ll be considering tossing the favorite and 40% of the pool from ex & tri.

Or Tossing the 2nd and third choices and using the next three or four vertically with the favorite.

Intuitively I still like Win Win Win & Signalman it\'s kinda fun being the only guy standing on the table yelling come on 8 get him up.

[BitPlayer]

Both War of Will and Owendale both took more money in the Black-Eyed Susan - Preakness double pool than they did in the early win betting.  War of Will was more like 9/2 and Owendale was around 6/1.  I would not be surprised if they play differently in the exotics than in the win pool.

[johnnym]

I will be playing the
3/5/7 to win and wheeling the Fox underneath in tri\'s & Super\'s
Don\'t think the pace will be as crazy as people think either.


Good Luck
John

[JR]

Thanks for the breakdown.

ALWAYSMINING, once my key is too short at 5-1. He could just as easily go backwards. I’ll be looking elsewhere for a key.

IMPROBABLE at 5/2 is a fair price but nothing to arouse the animal spirits

OWENDALE at 10-1 is a definite use

WAR OF WILL is more than fair at 7-1 but less so at 9/2

SIGNALMAN at 18-1 is a definite use and possibly a key in tris. History shows there have been some big jump ups in this race. They haven’t necessarily won the race but they’ve hit the board and created value in the exotics.

WARRIOR’S CHARGE at 16-1 is the best value in the race. Cox had live stock running on Friday and I don’t think he brought these two along as comfort pets. He’ll be my key in one set of tris.