Maximum Security work

[ajkreider]

Maybe someone with a better eye can tell me what\'s going on here:

April 29 work

They have him for a 4F work in a glacial time.  Looks more like two minute licking (which is all Servis ever seems to do), until about the 55 second mark.  The jock checks his watch, asks the horse to go, and then stands up after about a furlong.

Looks like a 1F work at the end of a gallop, which makes little sense to me.

[johnnym]

Mike Welsch
@DRFWelsch

As addendum to Max Security work he shaded :12 for final furlong to complete the mile then galloped out another eighth in :13.12 to pull up 1 1/4 miles.

[Tavasco]

It could be that Maximum Security is not a need to lead type. I\'m supposing he doesn\'t have brilliant gate speed?

Trainer ? Servis seems concerned, as others are, that stamina is the key to KY Derby. He\'s been galloping him 2 miles routinely. Has a point the race is not won c/b lost in the first quarter mile.

He is a puzzle though. Let me add a piece, apparently he was entered in a January auction for racing and stallion prospects. I\'m guessing that was before his 12/20/2018 debut.

Seemingly still an underlay in my opinion price floating up would not surprise. Unless a sizzling last w/o.

Undecided....

[johnnym]

Just curious
Horse has never lost a race, in my best guess will be 12-1 would not be surprised to see 15-1 and he is an underlay?
Has competitive #s and paired the first time he went a route.
At what price is he no longer an underlay?
I wonder what the talk would be if the West’s took him from Servis and gave him to Baffert?
GL

[Tavasco]

I was considering him an overlay because I though his current Vegas odds were 6/1.

[johnnym]

I am assuming that both War of Will and By My Standards are going to take $$
That’s what is going to make Max odds go up
I’ve been wrong before

[Fairmount1]

Will World of Trouble\'s performance on Friday affect Max Security\'s odds to a certain extent?  I would say that is very possible.  

If he wins by 7L+ (was clear of 3rd by this much at 5.5f at CD in November at BC with 118 Beyer)  

Or what if he doesn\'t even hit the super running up the track in shocking fashion? (worst career performance was losing by 4+L)

[richiebee]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Will World of Trouble\'s performance on Friday
> affect Max Security\'s odds to a certain extent?  I
> would say that is very possible.  
>
> If he wins by 7L+ (was clear of 3rd by this much
> at 5.5f at CD in November at BC with 118 Beyer)
>  
>
> Or what if he doesn\'t even hit the super running
> up the track in shocking fashion? (worst career
> performance was losing by 4+L)

My opinion here would be \"No\", because most of the money bet into the Derby
Pool will be bet by people who are not even aware that Trainer Servis had
horses entered on Friday or how they performed. Huge pools here, lots of
relatively uninformed bettors, 98% of whom are unaware of The Guru Jerry Brown
(TGJB)\'s \"undercard theory\". If you asked a lot of Derby Day bettors on and off
track what \"enhanced testing\" meant, they might reply that it has something to
do with why Lori Loughlin had to pay $500,000 to get her two spoiled brats into
a party school.

Indeed, many folks who bet on Max Sec will not be aware (as we all are) that
his final prep was more regatta than grade I stake.

As far as I am concerned a smashing performance by WOT would make me think more
of Max Sec\'s chances, while a poor performance by WOT would not cause me to
downgrade Max Sec\'s chances. Meaning that (in my opinion) there was one
possible good reason for a smashing performance, but many possible reasons for
the poor performance.

[Fairmount1]

Agree to disagree on this one \'bee as it relates to the following statement:

\"because most of the money bet into the Derby
Pool will be bet by people who are not even aware that Trainer Servis had
horses entered on Friday or how they performed. Huge pools here, lots of
relatively uninformed bettors,\"


A lucky lot these uninformed bettors.


Betting Rank in Derby Win Pool of top 4 finishers
2013: 1-16-2-5  (3 horses under 10-1)
2014: 1-17-3-2  (3 horses under 10-1)
2015: 1-4-2-5  (3 horses under 10-1 and the 4th horse 10.30-1)
2016: 1-2-3-4  
2017: 1-13-15-3  (2 horses under 10-1)
2018: 1-6-4-20  (3 horses under 10-1)

_________________________


The longshots consisted of Dallas Stewart (\'13, \'14), Asmussen (\'17), and Hollendorfer (\'17, \'18).

None of this will affect Max Security\'s odds on Saturday.  But it isn\'t uninformed bettors that will make his price in my opinion.  The crowd on this race has been really, really sharp in the Points Era not just in the first slot.

[richiebee]

A lot of those \"1\"s were morning line favorites?

Let me phrase it another way: What percentage of the money bet on the Derby will
be bet by folks who have never heard the name Jason Servis before? (Or even
worse, think he saddled the winner of the 2004 Derby?)

Will World of Trouble\'s performance on Friday affect the betting patterns on the
two \"Of\" colts in the Derby?

[TGJB]

Remind me, what’s my “undercard theory”?

[richiebee]

I seem to recall a few years back that you stated that if trainer x\'s runners on
the undercard turned in some bad performances, trainer x\'s runner in the main
event should be downgraded (especially if trainer x was one of the usual
suspects).

Good to see you quoted on the Lasix issue, but you might be shoveling sh-t
against the tide given the tone and timbre of the comments to Joe Drape\'s article
in The New York Times.

[TGJB]

Certain trainers, in certain situations. The Servis would qualify.

Since when do you read the Times? A couple of the comments on that string are mine. But the good news is, the Ky horseman stand today may have sent the tide in the other direction. I’ve also been going back and forth with the WHOA people, who have an agenda plain as day. More on that later.

[richiebee]

I read the Times article excerpted in Paulick (also where I saw your
quote).

I only read the obituaries in the Times. When every obituary states that
the person\'s death can be directly attributed to something Donald Trump did
(before or after he became President), I will stop reading the Times
altogether.

Great quote from the HBO doc on Pete Hamill and the late Jimmy Breslin: The role
of newspapers is to comfort the afflicted, and to afflict the comfortable.

[johnnym]

With those post draws Maximum Security will not be as high as I hoped
Draw killed some legit contenders