Derby

[TGJB]

Started work on the seminar. Man, did the last round of preps change the picture. Very interesting stuff.

[johnnym]

I was able to get it down to 8 horses

[Airnate012]

Whether he bounces to the moon or not, I\'m letting it all ride on Omaha. I\'ll explain in detail when I get my wagers finalized after the draw.

[Tavasco]

I have been looking for a thread on which to interject this thought I have. But first, while JB\'s interest in the last series of preps could mean anything what is essential to me is the TG pattern reads from the seminar... progress or regress with so many capable entries. What JB finds interesting kinda hooks ya though doesn\'t it?

But back to the thought that\'s been buggin me.... The Santa Anita Derby. In addition to an the unusual track condition, I\'m concerned about the race dynamics in a way in which I have not seen discussed.

Instagrand does not qualify as cheap speed in my book. OK he\'s no classic distance colt but, hey pace guys, I want to give Game Winner some credit for staying close to Instagrand on a pace that I think can only be guessed at. The clock is dubious here considering Belinda turned the surface into Zuma Beach. up by the lifeguard tower not down by the water.

A lot has been made of Roadster making up ground late with no other horse doing so on the day. What if Game Winner was spent from what amounted to a :45 1:10 or even :46 1:11 pace masked by the track condition. We know generally when we see horses making up ground its because the lead horse is slowing down.

Mike Smith, could be smart enough to have won that race. Staying on Roadster as obvious as it may have been to bystanders, the jockey\'s choice could have meant Roadster does not have enough early speed to win the Ky Derby according Money Mike\'s read.

I want to upgrade Game Winner.

[TGJB]

The pattern reads are what make this one interesting, even more than usual.

[bluechip21]

I think there are a number of horses that can go each way. For starters, I’ll assume we’re calling Master Fencer an auto toss? Just going solely based off that uncompetitive fig we have. I’ll go through the preps...

I’ll be honest, I’m really starting to think the Wood may be the best looking prep here. Lots of good figs and the 3rd place winner even looks intriguing, though that is before looking at his sire and siblings.

War of Will is the one I’m starting to key in on. Granted the bounce last out was significant, his prior two put him right there. By My Standards has moved forward each race and everything I know to date says off, but 6 weeks may help.

I think the Blue Grass is the fade race this year. I’m more than happy to let Vekoma best me, but that is more because i have a “hedge” win bet with him in the first futures pool. This was made before I saw how he runs. Win Win Win May be the wiseguy horse but unless the teach him how to exit the gate, I’ll back off him.

Regarding the AK Derby, if a city zip colt wins the KY Derby, I may as well just find a new sport to wager on. I’m very much so open to people telling me I’m wrong here. Game Winner is the horse from this race but ... Rosario. Great jock, but you just never know what you’re gonna get with him.

The Todd’s look like they could move forward but TP hasn’t been TP this year. Going back to his 2YO last season, his best horse (that he raced) was a turf sprinter! ... think about that. Sunland and LA are not the playbook he uses for his varsity team.  

Finally, the FL Derby. Max Security has been working like crap to date, but I believe he was a few weeks of the FL derby as well. Part of me just thinks it could be his year. How funny would it be if it were him and Tax in the exacta (going back to Jerry’s latest seminar, maybe he just filed an extension?). Regarding the second place finisher. I know it was a no passing zone,
Per usual for the track, but he looks similar to others who will be at a shorter price, that is if he gets in which I think he may.

I’ll pass on Dubai.

Just some random thoughts I figured I’d toss out, if anything to stoke further conversation.

[English67]

I went back and looked at last year\'s figures and only 2 horses ran new tops (I guess 3 if you count Justify running a -1 1/2 after running a -1 previously, but within 1 point is supposed to be considered a pair).  Those two were Bravazo and Instilled Regard.

And Jerry always says that very few run new tops in the Derby.

I keep coming back to one horse.  There are circumstances which might cause me not to fully trust this horse.  I think I will send a person to person message to Mr. Brown.

[Tavasco]

bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> War of Will is the one I’m starting to key in
> on. Granted the bounce last out was significant,
> his prior two put him right there. By My Standards
> has moved forward each race and everything I know
> to date says off, but 6 weeks may help.

I watched the latest WOW w/o and It looked good to me. Apparently he injured himself in the La Derby so the race deserves a line thru it, making his pattern curious probably positive imho.

> Regarding the AK Derby, if a city zip colt wins
> the KY Derby, I may as well just find a new sport
> to wager on. I’m very much so open to people
> telling me I’m wrong here. Game Winner is the
> horse from this race but ... Rosario. Great jock,
> but you just never know what you’re gonna get
> with him.

Here, Improbable (City Zip) puts Bob Baffert in direct opposition to your opinion. BB recently was quoted as saying don\'t toss Improbable. Call me superstitious, I\'m with you don\'t care for the breeding either. But ...

But I\'m assuming you meant Omaha Beach not Game Winner.

[ajkreider]

On the works:

By My Standards put in a very solid work by the clock today.  Out 7F in 1:26 is great for a 5F work in 1:00.2.

I don\'t know what the heck Servis is doing with his horses.  They all seem to go a mile plus in slightly more than a strong gallup.  MS was 64/64 in his work prior to the Florida Derby - didn\'t hurt him, obviously.

[hellersorr]

Re Maximum Security:  I\'d be interested to know how he looks in relation to the 2019 field compared to how War Emblem looked in relation to the 2002 field.

[TGJB]

The sheets for that Derby should be in the Archives. To this day, that was my best single race score.

[bluechip21]

Yes, apologies and thank you for pointing out. Ugh. I can’t keep my CA horses right. I started talking about a Baffert horses and my mind jumped to CA horses. (I’m a bit dyslexic, which really throws the tellers for a tizzy when I mess up my wagers, and this happens often. Good thing I don’t make it to the track as much as I’d wish.) ... I did mean Omaha. That AK Derby was a big jump, but not that big. After going back and looking at my general “how to read the sheets and angles” notes, a pattern like that should have me skeptical. I won’t get into specific numbers, per Jerry’s request, but I don’t see him getting much faster than what we’ve seen, but a pair should still be fast enough.


What I said about Game Winner and Joel still applies, but I do like his pattern the best of Baffert’s bunch. Apologies for the typo!

[Tavasco]

Astute analogy Harlan\'s Holiday went as the 6//1 favorite 2002 now I\'ll be curious to see if Maximum Security gets syndicated (like bad luck colt Battle of Midway) or sold outright like War Emblem. Oddly in both cases the general public missed the clue.
edit - but not TG

[Blueskies]

C\'mon man- now you need to tell the story for those of us that haven\'t heard it.

[Mike C]

There are some really nice patterns in this race, I think that Omaha Beach\'s last was too fast, we have seen only a few young 3 year olds go that low, and none of them pair up. Improbable\'s sheet looks a little better, but I agree with the consensus that his breeding is not for the derby. Tacitus, while fast enough has improved alot from his 2 year top, and I don\'t see him improving any more at this time.

What about a horse like Tax? small improvement over his 2 year old top, has speed for position, and competitive on numbers. There are a few who are close to fast enough now, and with some improvement (sort of how Omaha Beach improved in his last) could run fast enough to win. (spinoff for one)

Game winners sheet is looks amazing, but he was 4 wide is a 6 horse field, how is he going to fare with 19 other horses jockeying for position?

This is a difficult puzzle, and an important piece (post positions) is yet to be determined.

Good Luck to all.