The Kentucky Derby Puzzle

[Tavasco]

Now that the preps are complete we begin to consider in detail what we learned, what impressed us, and generally how to make some money on the Kentucky Derby.

This year\'s race seems different than years past in some way that I\'m trying to ascertain? More than the first time I haven\'t liked either a Euro or Japanese entry.

Thank goodness we have TG to differentiate the preps. Each of the winners looked bulletproof. That is to say no other horse was threatening the winner. No winner was wilting at the wire.

In the La. Derby By My Standard beat Spinoff & Sueno, I\'m unlikely to use any of these in any way. The La. horse is of course War of Will. He is sort of a wildcard. Is he healthy, is a 1+1/4 in his range? Is he a contender? Price s/b there.

In the Florida Derby, Maximum Security had everything his own way and impresses, but I suppose the trainer taints that one some. I liked 2nd place Bodexpress (who Owendale compimented in the Lexington) sure to be a big price, now looks as if he\'ll need a defection to get in the field..

In the Wood, Tacitus looked great. I have not seen the TG #\'s for that race but I expect them to be good. But the track condition and the colts running style are worrisome for me. I want to like any of the top three but fool me once, I\'ve been burnt too many times on Wood come backers in May or June. On my radar in August.

The Blue Grass, Purists say Vekoma runs ugly, they say he paddles? He definitely impressed me. I won\'t discount a Blue Grass winner. The place horse Win Win Win has impressed repeatedly and c/b a big price use in the Super. Or the 5 deep bet?

Then The Santa Anita Derby on a tricked up track. Deepened and resulting in times different (slower by the clock) than historically. I would not question a Bob Baffert trainer three y/o regardless of time or speed figure remembering Cupid and his Rebel. Game Winner\'s worst finish is 2nd?

The Arkansas Derby completes the evidence. Omaha Beach maybe the most impressive to date, but some will say the wet track helped. Improbable is very probable to run well in KY imho.

Who does that leave Plus Que Parfait, traditionally the wise guys discount the Dubai shippers, Thunder Snow, Mendelsson, Gronkowski, Lani. The run for the roses has not been kind to really any foreign invaders, despite their other successes.

So I\'m thinking I don\'t have to look further than the top two in any of the preps other than the La. Derby where I\'ll substitute War of Will and include the top three from the wood.

Now I only have a dozen horses to sequence. Sort of evenly distributed among front runners, pressers and closers. Hey maybe this isn\'t as tough as I thought. Of course it is, one of the most competitive Ky Derbys in my recollection. And Baffert may not be holding all of the Aces. Yet three Kings is very strong.

Seemingly a tough group to separate. Then consider these colts can improve or regress a couple or three points and that\'s before adjusting for trip dynamics. If you can\'t tell I\'m excited.

[Molesap]

It is a very interesting year and seems different from the last couple of years. Not to put any pressure on him, but I am looking forward to what has become my annual kickoff for the Derby - Fairmount\'s \"early stab\" at the morning line.

[shanahan]

he\'s busy this week...opening day at Fairmount Park in beautiful East St. Louis...

[toppled]

My 1st look before I see the sheets, workouts, or post draw, using BRIS & DRF PPs has me with 2 main contenders:
1) Tacitus- his breeding is top notch sired by 3x Belmont stakes winning sire Tapit & out of the Grade 1 winner Close Hatches who won at 1 1/8.  Trained by HOFer Mott, ridden by Jose Ortiz, undefeated in 2 starts on Lasix as a 3YO including winning the Tampa Bay Derby off a 4 month layoff. If it rains his mare won the G1 Personal Ensign in the slop. Waiting to see his sheet.    
2)Vekoma- Based on the DRF\'s Timeform pace ratings, he could end up as the lone speed loose on the lead if Instagrand & Knicks Go aren\'t in the Derby, they\'re currently 26 & 28th in points making it unlikely either will get in.  I don\'t know this year\'s numbers, but he ran around a 0 last year winning the Nashua.  I think it\'s the fastest 2YO sheet # among the Derby entrants.  If he got back to that # in the Blue Grass, he could be very dangerous-the Beyer came back light in the BG, but BRIS had it strong at 101.  I\'m waiting to see the TG #. I\'m a little prejudiced on him since I boxed him with the field in Derby future pool 1 exactas & I have 11 shots if he runs 1st or 2nd,including my current top pick Tacitus.

[ajkreider]

Vekoma may be on the front, but won\'t be loose. Omaha Beach has made the front by the 1/2 in his last three races. If they\'re jogging, he\'s just fine to take over. Maximum Security led them all the way around in a 7F race with a half in :45. And he negative split the FD from the 1/2 to the final furlong. If Vekoma slows it down, he\'ll go right on by. If those two don\'t get the lead from Vekoma, they will be right on his flank.

[big18741]

Vekoma won\'t be on my tickets and despite the trouble in the BG either will WWW.

Both ran strong figures going one turn.Neither has gotten back to those in two tries stretching out.

Spinoff is an interesting horse for me based on pedigree.
He\'s bred to be fast looking at his parents Hard Spun and Zaftig.
Both jumped forward to negative #\'s as 3yo\'s in early May.
On the other hand Pletcher doesn\'t get many new tops in the Derby and Spinoff will need to move forward to be relevant.

[Tavasco]

WOW historically likes to run on the shoulder, hip or flank of rivals early also. Those races may have been slower early but as they say, on his best he\'s a fast horse. C/B he\'s just traffic or is he a contender?

Additionally, I just saw he worked a bullet :59 from the gate @ KEE on 4/13. I don\'t think I like him but I\'m not ready to dismiss him. Puzzling?

What happened to him in the La Derby?

[RICH]

make no mistake there is no line as nice as game on winner

[wrongly1]

Hind end problem!  They should have stopped on him and returned to turf late summer.  T.

[boardedup]

TAP maybe mixing it up this year?  Instead of blowing the doors off FL all winter itseems like “maybe” strictly focusing on peaking in May.  Potentially not just the derby, but the whole series.  Or he just doesn’t have the goods?  I’ll likely make the same mistake for the umptenth time and use his heavily at a price.

I was really hoping Mandella didn’t win the AK Derby.  Running second or third to Improbable would have been ideal.  BB horse’s woulda got all the hype, and more importantly a ton of public money.  I was actually surprised OB went off ~ 9/5, and ran big as co fav.  I think he’s no worse than second choice and that’s a shame.  As to the Wood drought, I think there’s a fair chance that could end this year, he could be a decent price. The BG winner, tries hard and is fast but can’t see on top, underneath sure, maybe it’s just biases toward the left leg action.  Definitely getting derby fever, sorry if this was rambling but I’ve been sitting in the ER in AC for 4 hours now still waiting on the orthopedic doc to “come down stairs’ (fractured and displaced heel -getting old sucks!)

[RICH]

that\'s interesting, anyone know more on this?