Louisiana Derby

[jbelfior]

TG the best with 3yo patterns at this time of year. That\'s 2 weeks in a row. Toddy and BMS.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[ajkreider]

Should get a very good figure. Pletcher horse maybe best of all. Much heavier and much faster than the G2 older horses.

[Fairmount1]

Time is in doubt.

[joemama]

Winners odd at 49 to 1 with 2 minutes to post goes off at 22 to 1???

[Dana666]

Matt C from TVG touted the horse a few minutes out--the odds dropped after that. Anytime TVG gives out a horse the odds fall.

[jbelfior]

Carruthers said right before the race that the exotics were more reflective of a 15-1 shot. The exacta payoff came back generous for a 22-1 over the second choice.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[joemama]

I was watching the NBC sports feed this morning and noticed it..  Knew nothing of the Matt C. TVG opinion.  Did notice a 12-1 morning line though.

[Edgorman]

If bettors listen to, and use, the TVG feed before wagering, they would not have enough money left to pay their cable or internet bill.
Although she may not be the worst, Gaby Gaudet, at “GOLFstream”, babbles on until she selects 75% of the field. Best to hit the MUTE button.

[BitPlayer]

Based on the double probables from Serengeti Empress, I projected By My Standards at 21.4 to 1.

[BitPlayer]

Based on ground loss relative to the winner, Spinoff should clearly get the best TG fig in the race.  If you figure Sueno and Country House ran about what they have been running, I would guess Spinoff\'s fig should be similar to what War of Will had been running.  We\'ll see how the timing issue comes out.

Something happened to War of Will\'s hind end a couple of strides out of the gate.  Craig Milkowski has a picture on his Twitter feed.

[joemama]

Jerry Bailey pointed the misstep out on NBC sports.  Also the horse bled.

[Fairmount1]

A lesson in figure making, malfunctioning teletimers in horse racing, and the projection method.  

Jerry, I am very curious your take on all of this when you have time before the Ky Derby.  Curious if anyone thinks that the Feb 16th races were figured incorrectly (Beyer and TG) and need to be changed?  I don\'t have Timeform numbers but curious what they did as well.  Thanks.  

EDIT:  From Watchmaker\'s column, (Update - late Sunday morning, Beyer Associates boosted the figure for By My Standards’s maiden win from a 78 to an 86)


Feb. 16th, FG, R7:  By My Standards, MSW, 1 1/16 miles, 1:45.04.  TG Fig:  7.  Beyer Fig:  78.  REVISED MUCH TOO LATE:  86.  

Feb. 16th, FG, R9:  Silver Dust, G3 Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, 1:45.46.  TG Fig:  1.5.  Beyer Fig:  97.

_________

March 23, FG, R10:  Core Beliefs, G2 Stakes Older, 1 1/8 miles, 1:51.36.  TG Fig:  TBD.  Beyer fig:  \"Came up 83\" according to Randy Moss.  \"Projected a 94.\"

March 23, FG, R13:  By My Standards, G2 3yo Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, 1:49.53 in equibase chart.  Randy Moss states 1:49.86 is what they used after computer timing it.  TG fig:  TBD.  Beyer fig:  97

[BitPlayer]

The Timeform guys talked about the Mineshaft on their DRF Pacecast after the race.  They said that the pace was so slow (25.8, 50.6) that using the final time to make a figure would be useless.  They used projection instead.

That being the case, the final time would be useless in making figs for other races on the card.

[Fairmount1]

So now we are projecting figures off of prior projected figures (in the case of Beyer at least).  Can you say self-fulfilling prophecy?

There is art and science (math) in figure making.  Too much art happening for my taste in the Beyer case at least for the older horses.  Moss called the 83 calculated fig \"highly improbable.\"  So let\'s make it what we want it to be.  Slippery slope here .....

[Mathcapper]

That\'s about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.

Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least seven other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1MTP and figured to take big drops as well.

Below is the comparison of DD-Implied, 1MTP and Final Odds for each entry.

Interesting to note that other than a couple of minor moves down, By My Standards was the ONLY one that actually took big (really big) last minute action, so much so that he actually ended up going off at his DD-implied odds, which at the time I thought was virtually impossible for any of those entries b/c they were all SO much higher than their DD-implied odds, unless the \"smart money\" laid off the favorite completely in the last minute, which didn\'t happen (he stayed right at his 4/5 last-minute odds).

_______   DD___   1MTP____   FL
1______   17_____   36_____   32
2______   29_____   57_____   65
3______   12_____   18_____   15
4______   5.2____   6.4_____   7.8
5______   23_____   40_____   22.5
6______   1.7____   0.9_____   0.8
7______   35_____   67_____   50
8______   5.4____   5.4_____   6.4
9______   18_____   27_____   23
10_____   4.1____   3.8_____   4.3
11_____   21_____   40_____   33