LeComte

[BitPlayer]

My track record betting Derby preps is pretty bad, but I keep trying.  How the track is playing could be a big variable, but three horses interest me in the LeComte:  

Malpais -  Michael Beychok mentioned this horse on Jason Beem\'s podcast.  He\'s a little slow on TG, but this is only his third start, and he stretches out to two turns for the first time.  Drawn inside and coming out of a sprint, he figures to save ground and possibly be on a clear lead.  Pedigree isn\'t great for routes, and there\'s the risk of a fast pace, but the price could be there.  He\'s only 12-1 (which I would not take) on the morning line, but 28-1 on Public Handicapper.

Tackett - Also drawn inside, he showed the ability to sit behind horses in his last.  He\'s faster than Malpais, but still a little slower than the fastest ones.  Ground loss could make the difference.  I like the last pair at two turns, and the second place finisher in his last race (Owendale) came back to run faster (at least according to Beyer) in an allowance race on Thursday.  He\'s 6-1 on the morning line (good enough for me), but only 9-2 on Public Handicapper.

Manny Wah -  Last race was very fast relative to these.  Was the big new top a result of the cut back to 6 furlongs or the addition of blinkers?  The longer distance, outside post, and possible bounce are issues, as is the prospect of a fast pace, but the odds could justify the risk.  He\'s 10-1 on the morning line and 25-1 on Public Handicapper.

I should also mention Hog Creek Hustle.  He also ran pretty well in the Sugar Bowl at 6 furlongs, but he looks more like a sprinter to me.

[Tavasco]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My track record betting Derby preps is pretty bad,
> but I keep trying.  How the track is playing could
> be a big variable, but three horses interest me in
> the LeComte:  
>
> Malpais -  Michael Beychok mentioned this horse on
> Jason Beem\'s podcast.  He\'s a little slow on TG,
> but this is only his third start, and he stretches
> out to two turns for the first time.  Drawn inside
> and coming out of a sprint, he figures to save
> ground and possibly be on a clear lead.  Pedigree
> isn\'t great for routes, and there\'s the risk of a
> fast pace, but the price could be there.  He\'s
> only 12-1 (which I would not take) on the morning
> line, but 28-1 on Public Handicapper.

BitPlayer, you probably known Mr. Beychok is familiar with the cajun culture as well as this board. He used to post here but now he gets paid for his thoughts. With Mr. Money scratched Malpais\' job gets easier but Manny Wah also likes to run up front.


> Tackett - Also drawn inside, he showed the ability
> to sit behind horses in his last.  He\'s faster
> than Malpais, but still a little slower than the
> fastest ones.  Ground loss could make the
> difference.  I like the last pair at two turns,
> and the second place finisher in his last race
> (Owendale) came back to run faster (at least
> according to Beyer) in an allowance race on
> Thursday.  He\'s 6-1 on the morning line (good
> enough for me), but only 9-2 on Public
> Handicapper.

#2 Tackettt is easy to like he hasn\'t done anything wrong yet. I like his sire Limehouse for a classic distance influence and I agree 6/1 is a fair price.

> Manny Wah -  Last race was very fast relative to
> these.  Was the big new top a result of the cut
> back to 6 furlongs or the addition of blinkers?
> The longer distance, outside post, and possible
> bounce are issues, as is the prospect of a fast
> pace, but the odds could justify the risk.  He\'s
> 10-1 on the morning line and 25-1 on Public
> Handicapper.

I worry that Manny Wah does not have any more improvement for awhile. In fact he,imo, is a bounce candidate as fit as his line appears. But price has blinded me to blemishes in the past.

> I should also mention Hog Creek Hustle.  He also
> ran pretty well in the Sugar Bowl at 6 furlongs,
> but he looks more like a sprinter to me.

I played and won on Admire on an off track at CD he was very game in that race and looks to me that he has a future and in my view he\'s an overlay today. #12 Plus Que Parfait closes like a bullet train and in the slop to boot a live one. Even #10 Chase the Ghost looks to enjoy stretching out. Apparently lots of live horses in a good race to get lucky in.

Thanks for bringing it up!

[FrankD.]

No mention by either of you about Tight Ten.....

A Northeast blizzard has me looking at Fairgrounds.

4/4 on troubled trips, 50% bouncing off the rail.
Anyone think this horse may relish being outside today?
Tapit’s take a nice jump from 2-3 and this one ran a string of figures with normal sire’s development puts him right there.

I loved this one’s maiden breaker and hit him hard as a horizontal single in his Spa heat.

Good luck,

FD

[Tavasco]

Tight Ten is now a perfect five(5) for five(5) bad trips. I can imagine FrankD hurling his Irish Coffee across the room to shatter in the blazing fireplace as he watched the snow fall upstate and jockey Santana play pinball out of the starting gate. Then bumper cars down the back straight and all the while losing ground where ever possible before tossing in the towel late. Next time?

Michel Beychok\'s Malpais (is that a Cajun term/name) took the lead as BitPlayer predicted in very pedestrian early fractions of 24¹ and 49¹ only to fall apart and finish an increasing 33 lengths behind the winner beating only one, who was ironically, Mo Speed sad to say he was a DNF. The price was there @ 18/1. Next time, and back to sprinting?

I can now longer assert Tackett has done nothing wrong. Bravo Joe rode him early as if he genuinely thought he had a win contender. Not exactly Mike Smith wide but too wide while trying to stay in contact with the front runners. His stopping in the stretch is worrisome.

Honorable Mention - BitPlayer identified both Hog Creek Hustle and Manny Wah both of which ran well and I expect we\'ll see them again despite their curious names.  HCH perceived as possibly distance limited ran as if he can go even further and my notion of end of the line for iron horse Manny Wah was not yet son.

Of my three(3) choices, luckily my number one scratched and that was a win for me. Both Plus Que Parfait and Chase The Ghost showed gate speed that surprised me. I suppose it was necessitated by outside post positions. I really like the motion of both horses and thought I was on something good as they ran together all the way to the top of the stretch. They then finished evenly but not the Mine That Bird finish I was hoping for. I expect both to be back in the next FG derby prep or maybe Oaklawn.

Then there was the winner. To be fair War of Will ran a good race in reasonable time. It\'s just that I soured on him after watching his beats on turf in the Breeders Cup and the prep for same. However, getting swallowed up by those going to be beasts doesn\'t really compare to carrying ones speed over dirt at a long mile.

Lastly I liked the card. Full races of a dozen horses each even when they are maiden races sure beats the offering of some other venues. All hail Roy H. I\'m thinking BitPlayer just may have cashed a ticket ot two. Happy New Year Frank! Stay tuned Pegasus and Dubai not to far off.

[BitPlayer]

No cashing here.  I thought the winner was not unlikely, but not for me at 8/5.  I made fair value on him at around 4-1.  Based on the preliminary Beyer (94) and his ground loss, I\'d guess he went forward at least a couple of points on TG.

Plus Que Parfait probably ran his race despite a tough trip.  I have his TG as 3d best in the field.  Maybe a pair of his top.

I did make an ill-fated bet on Malpais, even though 18-1 wasn\'t really the bargain I was hoping for. I think it\'s one of my weaknesses as a horseplayer that once I get an idea about a longshot, I\'m prone to making suicide prevention bets even when I sour on him.