Figure Making Final Exams

[TGJB]

The BC had pretty much everything in figure making terms, tracks changing speed, dead grass rail, dead dirt rail for part of one day (as it dried). The good news is that we didn\'t have to deal with maiden races and we had big fields, so sample size was good for each race. The days were complicated, but not difficult, as you can see by the number of horses that ran tight to their previous figures. I\'ve been doing this a long time, but this is the first time in quite a while that doing the days and piecing the puzzle together was really fun.

Almost no two figure makers will do these days the same way. Those who don\'t use weight or ground by definition can\'t do them the same as we did, and those who do, but don\'t believe tracks change speed, are bound by their \"rules\" to get many races wrong, some by a lot, on Saturday especially.

The days with the figures they ran are in ROTW. If somebody has too much time on their hands, break out the Euros by Lasix/not, and see what percentage of each ran new tops.

[Furious Pete]

Good job! The numbers seems solid enough IMO.

Okay, I\'ll make a list and will try to keep an open mind, just because I\'m really interested in this. I fear it will be easy to turn those findings into a kind of straw man argument though, given the dead rails, many \"off\" races in general, and the fact that it\'s simply much harder to carry ones A-game to the other side of the world. There is of course also a risk for self-fulfilling prophecies implied in this methodology, when it comes down to these things (I know it\'s not an easy exercise at all to get those relationships right, and overall I\'m quite impressed by TG\'s efforts).

Let\'s see how this looks (I\'ll just dig it out for now, as I\'m not sure a purely quantitative approach would make one any smarter in this case - I\'ll leave that for others if they must):

Friday (2yo\'s):
- So Perfect - Lasix - Pairs up her previous best (a 9)
- Queen of Bermuda - No lasix - a slight new top (from 9.5 to 9)
- Soldiers Call - Lasix - Off race, dead rail notion(1w)
- Sergei Prokofiev - Lasix - Off race
- Pocket Dynamo - No lasix - A bit off his best, but decent (11 vs 8.5)
- Well Done Fox - No lasix - no factor

- East - Lasix - Pairs up (from 8.75 to 8.5) (no X but comment says rail 3/8)
- Just Wonderful - Lasix - Pairs up clear top from last time out(lto), a 10,  but does it on a dead rail (1w1w)
- The Mackem Bullet - No lasix - slightly off top (10.75 vs 8.5 lto), but she did so going further than ever before, and on a dead rail (1w1w)
- La Pelosa - 2nd time lasix - 5 points off the figure earned at woodbine with 1st lasix lto (12.75 now, 8 then). 12 would be a pair of prev best.
- Lily\'s Candle - No lasix - no factor

- Line of Duty - Lasix - 2 pt new top (8 vs 10.25). Partly dead rail, but no notion (2w1w)
- Arthur Kitt - Lasix - Pair of top (10), dead rail (1w1w)
- The Black Album - No lasix - Pair of top (11 vs 10.75). Not the smoothest run
- Anthony Van Dyck - Lasix - Off race
- Marie\'s Diamond - No lasix - Off race

Saturday:
- Lost Treasure - Lasix - 2-3 points off race
- Havana Grey - Lasix - Off race

- Wild Illusion - No lasix - slight new top (from 3.5 to 3) - reluctant in gate and tight in traffic
- Magic Wand - Lasix - pairs up lto (4 then, 4.5 now)
- Athena - Lasix - slight new top (4.75, from 5.25)
- Eziyra - Lasix - pairs up - not the smoothest of runs
- Princess Yaiza - Lasix - off race - dead rail notion (2w1w)

- Expert Eye - Lasix - slight new top (from 3 to 2.25)
- One Master - No lasix - 3 points off clear new top from lto (5.75 now, 2.5 then), but pairs up prev top and did it while running 1w1w on a dead rail
- Clemmie - Lasix - Slight new top (from 5.5 to 4.75)
- Lightning Spear - Lasix - Ran good enough (better than lto, 2 points off top)
- Happily - Lasix - Off race on a dead rail (1w1w)
- Gustav Klimt - Lasix - A tad off (5.25 now, 2.5 as best), off slowly
- Mustashry - Lasix - A bit off (4.5 now, 2 lto), horrible trip (off slow, rushed hard, faltered)
- I can fly - Lasix - 3 points off top (5.75 vs 2.5 lto), broke slowly, couldn\'t fly

- Enable - Lasix - 3 point new top. Pretty accomplished runner.
- Magical - Lasix - 3 and a half point new top.
- Waldgeist - No lasix - A bit off (4 vs 1.25 lto), step slow in start
- Talismanic - No lasix - Off race on a dead rail (1w1w) (7.5 now, 4.75 lto, 2 is the top (from last BC w/o lasix))
- Hunting Horn - Lasix - No factor


So, what to make of it? For one thing I see a few more excuses for the \"no lasix\"-horses this year, which adds to my suspicion that these numbers should not be used in a purely quantitative context. It\'s just randomness.

About the Euro/US relationship it\'s inconclusive (once more). Was it a tight call to make the turf even faster? From a pure projection point of view I guess it\'s tight between how it was done, and making it a point faster. A really messy race to make figures for.. I see the trainer and those that really has been following Enable says she was even better last year, that is interesting.. I\'m inclined to thinking that it\'s not as simple as a \"euro\'s\"-adjustment, it\'s more to it than that I think, and often I believe you get it quite right. But it\'s something about those top, top races and those that compete for the very first places I think, they seem to have a gear available that the figures don\'t pick up on (or the clock?). If they get to run their race, that is, the very best ones usually does. Uh-oh, the frowned upon class-word has arrived in my thoughts..

It\'s difficult. It really is. I doubt I will ever be sure about any of this.

[bluechip21]

Jerry, thank you for this detailed explanation. For the premium service that you provide, this insight is fantastic. Count me as a happy and pleased customer. Cheers!

[Bet Twice]

I’m not questioning the number, but how does one explain Stormy Liberal’s jump up, at 6 no less?

[Ace]

I had exactly the same question. How does this happen at age six?  That\'s like me running a 3:30 marathon at age 55 with a prior top of 3:54.

[TGJB]

It’s like you running a lot faster than that. Probably the fastest grass figure ever.

[Bet Twice]

Yeah, more like being a 330 marathoner and then dropping a 215 out of nowhere.

[Edgorman]

The NYC Marathon had a huge inside speed bias this year, as the barriers were moved out 15 feet on First Avenue, outside the bike lanes.
I’ve made numbers on the first 8000 finishers and hope to post the entire field soon. The figures will include a notatation for FTG. First time Gatorade.

[Tavasco]

C\'mon not much like a marathon at all. Like a sprint otherwise yes and jaw dropping.

[jbelfior]

Neither one of those guys could ever get a horse to win at 1 1/4 or beyond on the grass.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Frank]

Have a look at Finnegans Wake

[bobphilo]

Ace Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had exactly the same question. How does this
> happen at age six?  That\'s like me running a 3:30
> marathon at age 55 with a prior top of 3:54.

Not really. Horses are not even physically mature until 5 or 6. They can then maintain their physical condition for several more years. Some of the best show jumpers are 10 or so.

It\'s just that in racing the good ones are retired young and few of the others can remain sound from the stress of racing for many years. Racing may accelerate the aging process, so yes, in some sense a 6YO race horse may be considered a bit past his prime. Apparently, Limousine Liberal has retained his form at 6 as a normal horse would.

[TGJB]

Please.

[bobphilo]

Please what? You didn\'t know a horse can be in top shape at 6? Accelerator and California Chrome all ran their best races at 5, only a year younger. A 6YO horse is NOT equivalent to a 54 YO man. Not even close.

The only odd thing is that it took him so long to run such a big top or that a horse could increase his figure by so much from his previous race at any age. If you believe your own figures, than you must believe that this 6YO horse is not over the hill. Your own figures say that.

BTW, I mistakenly referred to Stormy Liberal as Limousine Liberal. My typo.

[TGJB]

The statement I responded to was literally too ridiculous to deconstruct. If I did I would still be listing things that were wrong with it, and that’s not how I’m going to spend my Saturday night. But you might want to note for starters that he’s been six ALL YEAR.