Figure Making Final Exams

[bobphilo]

I know that and it has no relevance to this discussion. I too have better things to do than waiting for you to respond to the points in my post, aside from insulting it with no basis. I\'ll be here when you have something substantive to make.

[TGJB]

Tomorrow, if someone else doesn’t beat me to it.

[Bet Twice]

Bob - nobody is suggesting that a 6 year old can’t still be competitive, or in some cases, run a new top, but show me another sheet where a fairly heavily raced 6 year old whose established top is a 2, suddendly runs a -5, faster than any turf horse has run before.

[grinder]

Well Bob, here is a link to an independent study that does not appear to support your unsubstantiated assertion.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/

[bobphilo]

grinder Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well Bob, here is a link to an independent study
> that does not appear to support your
> unsubstantiated assertion.
>
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/

Looked at the study and it shows that a racehorse peaks at about 4 1/2, very close to the 5 YO figure I stated. It then declines very slowly (almost plateaus) over the next few years. The standard deviation at 6 shows that a horse can run its best race at 6. A 6YO horse is NOT equivalent to a 54 YO man.
The study supports my statements.

[bobphilo]

I did say that it is unusual for a horse to take so long to run such a huge top. However the study posted by grinder shows that 6YO horses can be still run at their top level and still be within the standard deviation. The problem is not that the horse is so old. What is unusual is the size of the top and that it took so long to reach it but not incredible. Of course we\'re assuming that the figure is correct. If not then there may not be anything strange.

Either:
(A) The figure is correct and the horse can and did run such a new top at 6, or
(B) The figure is incorrect.

Take your choice.

[grinder]

You stated the following: \"Horses are not even physically mature until 5 or 6. They can then maintain their physical condition for several more years.\"

The authors of the study I referenced stated the following, when summarizing their findings: \"We find that a typical horse’s peak racing age is 4.45 years.\"

Further, their study (Table 4) found that the average 4 1/2 year old racehorse runs 5 points faster (Beyer scale) than a 6 1/2 year old racehorse. As such, contrary to your claims, racehorses have already peaked and are generally running slower speed figures by 6 years of age.

Therefore, the conclusions of their study do not support your statements.

[bobphilo]

Please look at the chart for average Beyers by age. There is a very gradual (almost imperceptible) decline from a horses peak at 4.45. And that is just the average. For a 6YO to be at top form is well within the standard deviation. An exceptional horse can even go beyond the standard deviation.

The horses TG figure shows that the horse can and did run this figure. If you don\'t believe that, then complain to JB about his figure.

The post I was responding to is that that a 6YO horse is like a 55 year old man. totally not supported by the evidence.

[bobphilo]

Bet Twice Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob - nobody is suggesting that a 6 year old
> can’t still be competitive, or in some cases,
> run a new top, but show me another sheet where a
> fairly heavily raced 6 year old whose established
> top is a 2, suddendly runs a -5, faster than any
> turf horse has run before.

Since that is what the figure shows than your complaint is with the figure, not with me.

[wrongly1]

We all know who Peter Miller is and why that horse popped a big number.

[bobphilo]

wrongly1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We all know who Peter Miller is and why that horse
> popped a big number.

That would be another plausible explanation.

[Fairmount1]

Wrongly1 wrote:  \"We all know who Peter Miller is and why that horse popped a big number.\"

HARD WORK.  
UP EARLY IN THE MORNINGS.
LET\'S A HORSE BE A HORSE.

Those are the only ones I can think of that would add up to a negative six.....

If you question Jerry\'s number by the way (bobphilo), then you better question Beyer also.  â€œIt is the highest figure we’ve ever assigned to a turf race,...\"  Do you really think JB and Beyer both got it wrong?  I haven\'t look at Timeform or Bris; maybe others can weigh in on how those two saw the race.  

https://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-stormy-liberals-119-beyer-one-books

[Furious Pete]

The most interesting question for me is why one haven\'t seen these huge negative numbers on turf before now. Maybe it is the beginning of a new trend. Yikes if that is the case..

[Bet Twice]

I have no problem with the number.  My issue is and was with you spouting off with some ridiculous argument, which at this point, I’m not even sure what that argument is.  Probably best to let this go at this point.

[TGJB]

Okay, you brought out my inner Sam Kinison.

1-- Effin SHOW HORSES?? SERIOUSLY??

I\'ll stipulate they\'re great at ten (though given your other pronouncements who knows). But what the hell have show horses got to do with racehorses? There are people who get better at games of skill as they get past 40 (I\'m assuming show horses have skills), but show me the ones who GET FASTER as they age. Now, there are some who may have gotten stronger, like Bonds and Clemens. Oh, wait...

2-- SOME horses are not \"physically mature\" until 5 or 6. SOME can maintain their physical condition for several years. SO WHAT??? How does even that address his point, let alone your silly pronouncement making it ALL horses? What does it have to do with this?

Yes, I\'ve given 8yos new tops. But a) there are outside factors that affect horse\'s performances, like barn changes, and they factor into almost if not all of them. And b) this was a heavily raced grass horse that ran a 7 1/2 point new top. He went in one shot from not in the top 100 fastest grass horses of all time to number one. Faster than Frankel, faster than Wise Dan, faster than whoever you want, by a lot. The second horse got weight and saved ground, but he\'s probably number two off his previous Servis induced figure.

3-- The \"good ones are retired young\" thing is a completely bogus logical fallacy. We have plenty of data on development from the tens of thousands that DON\'T get retired, you can look at the TGI\'s to track the stallions in that regard. Or you could if you looked at TG. There is no \"normal\", your pronouncement notwithstanding.

4-- Pete Miller used to train for me, we had a falling out years ago but we still are friendly enough when we see each other, and he has a great wife. But I feel compelled to point out the fastest DIRT figure of the BC was thrown by Roy H, who didn\'t jump as much THIS TIME in one shot, but developed 12 points from his 4yo top to get to a neg 6.

5-- I\'m not going to even get into your subsequent replies to other guys. You got off easier than you should have, either because they\'re being nice, don\'t care, or critical analysis is dead.