Lets start early....BC Friday!

[APny]

Jerry hasn\'t put out his thoughts yet but here my top contenders for Friday knowing very well that post positions will matter a lot:

Juv. Turf Sprint:

Soldiers Call looks like a MONSTER.

Shang Shang Shang will likely be bet the most out of the Ward horses because of the Ascot win but has a gap in works and is slow.  Stillwater Cove ran HUGE at Saratoga sitting off the pace which I like.

Bulletin could be anything but i\'m not betting a horse who has only run once against much more experienced horses.

Juv Filles Turf:

Newspaperofrecord is hella fast and will take some beating.  

East could be anything and if she comes could run big.


Juvenile Filles:

I\'m liking Bellafina a lot.  Her one slow race was over a quirky Del Mar surface that most horses struggled over.  

Serengetti Empress looks like the next best.


Juvenile Turf:

I\'m all about the Euros.  Anthony VanDyck is probably just better than these. Broome looks good too.

Juvenile:

I don\'t see Game Winner losing here.  If for some reason Baffert\'s horses don\'t run, Gunmetal Grey much just be better than the rest.  For some reason I don\'t trust Complexity but he\'s obviously fast. Well Defined a longshot play with decent post.

[Molesap]

Juvenile Turf Sprint
Inaugural running of Juvenile Turf Sprint, seems very popular with trainers as they have a full field of twelve (they only allow twelve to start in this race) and full also eligible list. They could split this into two divisions and still have a number of AE’s. With no history, it is impossible to make a profile of the winner. They did run this race on the undercard last year and Euro entries went 1-2-3-4. The winner and third place horse came from the rear of the field, while the second and fourth place horse came from midfield. It was just one race, but maybe upgrade the Euros? Even looking at previous editions Breeder’s Cup Turf sprints for older does not provide a wealth of information as those races were previously run at 5f. Generally speaking, races at 5.5f on the turf course at CD favor the inside posts. In addition wire to wire winners are fairly common as are pressers â€" they account for almost 4/5 of the winners. Midpack runners make up most of the other winners while a very small percentage are deep closers. But who knows how this profile fits with 2YO’s, especially with half the field coming across the Atlantic.

Bulletin - Intriguing Pletcher trainee who impressively won GP sprint stakes in debut. Bred to be a good turf sprinter, could be really special here. I really liked the way he won. TG number looks pretty good and Pletcher’s often move forward in second start.
Soldier’s Call (GB) - Interesting as he ran third by a neck to older horses in the G1 Prix de Abbaye and has multiple graded wins. Never out of the money while racing exclusively at 5f, but the extra half furlong does not seem an issue based on his finishes, but perhaps having to negotiate a turn might pose a bigger problem. Still, seems to be the fastest of the imports and has a big shot here.
Sergei Prokofiev - O’Brien always seems to have a strong stable, but he does not always bring his strongest to the US. This one seems a cut below as he was overmatched in G1, but he still looks competitive enough. His three wins all came at 5f on the turf including a G3. Still question his form with the very best of his generation, but cannot toss off his lst which measures up against everyone on paper.
So Perfect - Filly seems like a sprinter to me with the breeding and has never been beyond 6f. Always close for O’Brien, has a record of 6-2-1-1 but has only been more than 3/4 lengths back at the finish one time and a couple of those were in G1’s. If you like the foreign form, you have to consider as I think as she seems to be in the upper echelon from overseas despite not being in the upper echelon of the TG figures.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Surprisingly to me, the US has done very well in this event taking 8/10 renewals and 5/10 resulted in an all US based exacta. Not surprisingly, Chad has done really well winning four. Most of those winners can from the Miss Grillo or Natalma.

Newspaperofrecord (IRE) - Has looked tremendous winning over a yielding surface in both starts â€" looks easily like the best North American prospect and I will go as far as saying the best horse in the race. Chad trainee has yet to run on a firm turf in the afternoon, but given the forecast they will get some rain at least in the middle of the week so it is not likely too firm if at all. Plainly put she has been visually stunning in both her starts. She will likely be pounded at the windows and is the most likely winner on the Friday card especially considering the number she got for the Miss Grillo and the history of the race â€" all of which fit her to a T.
My Gal Betty - Ran second as the favorite in the Natalma for Attfield. I am usually against WO form, but the Natalma has been a key for this one. She has done nothing wrong coming into this and is 4-2-1-2 overall. She has ascending figures so that indicates she is improving, which may be related to the increased distance and has shown a decent closing kick. She is one to consider.
Concrete Rose - Beat a field of statues in a grassy Kee G2 route and this is a much deeper pond. By all speed figure data, she actually regressed when stretching out, but was still good enough to prevail in a weak field. She looked OK winning her last and it is hard to argue with a perfect record including a G2 win, but I am still skeptical she is this good. Her speed figures match up with all in the race except the favorite, so I guess you have to consider, especially for the unders.
Just Wonderful â€" I had a hard time separating this one and Hermosa, but hear rumor Hermosa may not be coming. O’Brien charge has a 6-3-1-0 record so far with a couple of graded wins. Won a G3 at a mile a couple back so that makes her eligible to run well here. In terms of the imports, O’Brien seems to hold a strong hand. It will be interesting to see where Moore ends up as that might give some clues as to which one seems more live.

Juvenile Fillies
Success has generally boiled down to a horse previously racing on major circuit (NY, KY or CA) especially if ran At BEL, KEE or SA in a G1 race. From 33 horses that have won, 26 had won a graded stakes prior to winning this race. Favorites have dominated this for years and still hit over 50% if you take all 34 events into account (18/34), but four of the last five winners were 32/1, 62/1, 33/1 and 17/1.

Jaywalk - I am intrigued by the numbers this one shows as she is fast early, but pretty much faster than everyone late. She nicely fits the profile of the typical winner of this race. At this point, I like her best as I think she has a great combination of speed and a nice late kick. She has not been two turns yet and being out of Cross Traffic there is some concern as to whether or not she can get the distance, but I think she will be OK in both those areas. Solid chance here at a bit of a price.
Bellafina - Likely is the one to beat here and she will be a relatively short-priced favorite I am sure. Was not convinced she was that good in the Dmr Debutante, but erased most of my concerns at SA in the Chandelier. She stalked the pace and pulled away late in an impressive win while pairing her top last out, which alleviates some of the distance concerns. She is fast, but does not really fit the profile of a winner in this race as not many have done well on or near the lead.
Restless Rider - Prompt favorite in the Alcibiades, she has a lifetime record of 4-3-1-0. Thought she was much better than her foes at Kee on paper and on the track. She has finished a race quick enough to consider and she will not be on the lead â€" two criteria that are predictive of success in this race. I do not love her in this spot, but she has a shot I would think.
Cassies Dreamer - Bobbled at the start and then ran fairly evenly in the Frizette. She has had trouble all three starts, so if she ever gets of the gate, she could improve, but sometimes bad gate horses never get better. She has shown an ability to close and many winners in the past came off the pace. I do not think we have seen her best and while slower, her line reminds me of Caledonia Road a bit â€" she won this race last year from the Frizette.

Juvenile Turf
Just as the US fillies have been so dominant, the European contingent has been tough in this Breeders\' Cup Juvenile Turf. They have won 7, while the US have won 4. In fact, the European based horses have filled at least half of the superfecta slots in almost every year, but they represent only a fraction on the entrants (about 30%).

Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) - This one fits the race to a “T” as he has the attributes that have led to success in the past. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien has won this race multiple times, this horse ran third in the Dewhurst, which is the same race Mendelssohn ran second in before winning this event in 2017. The only issue is that O’Brien said he was likely not coming, then he magically appears in the pre-entries. He looks better than last year’s winner coming in, so I have to rate him on top â€" he is my choice in this race and I really like him in this spot if he shows as he paired tops last time with a very good relative figure.
Broome (IRE) â€" Last I read was that O’Brien was not going to bring both Anthony Van Dyck and Broome, so it may end up being an either or choice. I really liked Broome on the Arc undercard and this O’Brien trainee just missed in the Jean-Luc Lagardere, which has also been a key race in the past. Trained by O’Brien, he has had four races already over a mile, so he should be fit. Has the right profile finishing in the money in a grade stakes at 7f or better â€" he would be live if makes the trip.
Line of Duty (IRE) - Line of Duty has a record of 4-2-2 for Charles Appleby and his two place finishes were close. So he has run all four of his races very competitively and has been bet down to the favorite in every start. Has not beat much though, but you can only run against the ones who show up. Bred to run all day, won a G3 9f race last out. Do not think he is quite on par with a few of the others from across the Atlantic, but have to respect.
Somelikeithotbrown - Most of the US based horses seem to be cookie cutter runners who mostly have the same style and figures. Seems like if an American horse wins this, they may have to steal it on the front end. This one set the pace in the Pilgram and held on OK after that. He went fairly quick early so he had an excuse to fold it up. There is not much pace signed on in the initial body of the field except for War of Will. Plus, Maker is always tough and this one might be as well, especially from a pace dynamic standpoint.

Juvenile
I am always surprised by the opposite trends we sometimes see when looking at the fillies vs colts. While in the Juvenile Fillies division, speed does not seem to do well, it was often a commodity in the Juvenile. However, off the pace runners have prevailed in three of the last four years. Prior to that many of the Juvenile winners raced on the lead or pressed the pace in second. You have to go back to 2009 and Vale of York to find another closer winning this. It has also been a chalky affair as 10 of the last 12 Juvenile favorites have finished in the exacta, dating back to First Samurai’s 2005 third place effort and finishing with Bolt d’Oro’s show finish after a rough trip in 2017. Overall, 11 favorites have won this race, so they are hitting around 33%.

Game Winner - The deserved favorite who is undefeated in three tries. Checks all of the boxes, can stalk, can close, been around two turns successfully, Hall of Fame trainer, good figures - he looks like the real deal. Has a few more options than Complexity based on running style. However, remember the favorite looked really good last year and all he could muster was a third place finish. Plus, horses coming out of the SA prep (formerly the Norfolk, but has changed names multiple times) are 0/8 at CD â€" something to consider?
Complexity - Seems to have just one way to go, which makes him dangerous and vulnerable at the same time. No doubt he is the speed of the speed and that means he could get an easy lead. But if he gets hooked, not sure how well he holds on to the end, especially around two turns. Both those turns are a potential issue and some question his breeding for routes, but I think this distance should be OK as his sire does have a winner of a Triple Crown race (Cloud Computing but with much more distance orientated pedigree on the bottom). I suspect he will be very tough. Trainer won this race last year with a maiden â€" think of the possibilities he has with a G1 winner here. One of the ones.
Code of Honor - Broke slowly in Champagne and that may have benefitted him more than hurt. Made a nice move to make it into the place spot and it gave him a world of seasoning. Was never getting to the winner in my opinion, but showed he belonged. Like all of the horses coming from NY, two turns is a question mark and with his breeding, it is even a bigger one. I do not think he is in the top tier with Game Winner and Complexity, but matches up favorably with the other entrants. Earned a good figure, but based on his last run, may become the wiseguy horse and that is never a good thing.
Gunmetal Gray - Hollendorfer trainee chased Game Winner last time around. Never threatened the winner though. Can he make up five lengths on both Game Winner and Complexity is the big question. Certainly is usable in the unders and depending on price, could be used on top as well. Two year olds this time of year can jump forward fairly easily. Better than most here â€" chance for a piece.

[Tavasco]

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jerry hasn\'t put out his thoughts yet but here my
> top contenders for Friday knowing very well that
> post positions will matter a lot:
 
Juvenile Turf:  The Breeders Cup Site Contender Info.-->
 
I\'m all about the Euros.  Anthony VanDyck is probably just better than these. Broome looks good too.

Current - Pletcher- Dixieanna (1st) Current really improved in this effort. I remember betting him even at his ? 5/1. He layed off a too fast pace set up by the had to lead War of Will. His move down the lane was not explosive (imo) but very workmanlike. Toss

War of Will - imo he was exposed in the Dixieanna he\'s a maiden best I can say is his connections sure are optimistic.

Forty Under - Looks a nice horse, my bias concerns the trainer and his winning this race.

Oprey - The \"With Anticipation\" at Saratoga was impressive not because he beat 5 competitors it\'s more about how he did it which is both good and bad news.  In the Pilgrim he didn\'t drop out the back and it compromised his late kick. Or the colt bounced off the SAR effort? The With Anticipation -->

SomeLikeItHotBrown - Placing in both the With Anitcipation and Pilgrim get you points. Hot in the name apparently from the breeder Hot Pink Stables?

Henley\'s Joy - Accomplished Kitten\'s Joy Ramsey colt was non threatening 2nd in the Dixieana. I suspect he\'s in as much because CD is his back yard and Ramsey needs the attention.

Arthur Kitt - I believe this one is going to expose the pretenders by forcing the races pace at the top of the stretch and will also prove stubborn and difficult to pass late. The race call is somewhat confusing. Chesham Stakes Royal Ascot-->

Broome - An Irish colt by way of a good race in France. Longchamps-->, Tough Trip @ Leopardstown-->  

Bulletin - A runaway winner @ 5F in Florida is not what one would expect as a prep for this BC Juvenile Turf. But the colt could not have been more impressive. Surely Pletcher and Winstar knew they had something special to debut in a stakes vs. Jackson. But City Zip? This wildcard could really confuse this races pace?

Line of Duty In his last it took him a while to find a a clear path then he showed the kind of explosion we\'ve come to expect from top Euros. Having traffic issues in a smallish field is worrisome. Prix La Rochette-->

Marie\'s Diamond - A nine time starter. The one positive I have is respect for his trainer Mark Johnson.

The Black Album (FR) - A preocious french colt evidently purchased by Team Valor & Gray Barber. I couldn\'t find a video of his last race but did learn that Jay-Z has an album by the same name. Somewhat of a wildcard?

Anthony Van Dyke - Very accomplished in Ireland includes a significant number of Irish pounds. Galileo on top is a good thing. His recent trip to Newmarket and England resulted in a third affter setting the pace in a sprint. Seems iffy to me. but all hail Aidan O\'brien.

Empire of War - Another well bred colt owned by a swell and trained by TAP. Looked good breaking his maiden around one turn @ Bel last out. Apparently much expected of this one. I\'ll pass this race and look to load up on his comeback race wherever that ends up.

Flying Scotsman - I have a lot of respect for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, I suppose it tracks back to when he and Russell Baze won everything in sight at Bay Meadows. Now JH has had some bad luck and not so much success @ CD. Yet Calumet Farm is on the rebound and this combination screams don\'t overlook me. I\'ll assert here and now this is the best US colt in the race. Of course it requires no objective data to make such a claim. Can he rate?

King Of Speed - Another handsome SoCal colt who can really run. Even though he got a little lucky winning the Zuma Beach last out. NorCal transplant Bonde is competent and to see him in here speaks volumes for either the owners desire or Jeff\'s confidence. Maybe both. Add Gary Stevens (I presume) and I think we have a colt suited to the distance.

Louder Than Bombs - A son of Violence who it seems is a sire to keep one\'s eyes on.  At least one can expect lots of traffic in GP turf races. This big raw boned colt got left behind in the Proud man then showed his affinity for more distance in the Armed Forces. imo the best FL colt.

Much Better - A Bob Baffert trained turf horse? What to think? He trains horses to run the others off their feet. Some turf champions have had success with those tactics but not most. Not very impressive to me in the Zuma Beach except as a pace factor.

Order & Law - An unbelievable last race. No wonder they\'ve come to the BC. Another Violence colt an outsider with a probable upside but how much?  He\'s no sprinter and while missing the start and then losing a ton of ground won the Larel Futurity (a sprint)  Easy to toss out but obviously has ability and probably only gets better with distance. A sentimental favorite. Laurel Futurity-->

Pico Entry - It seems one needs a talented horse and a good trip to win a turf race@ KEE even a MSW. Full fields are nice for spectators. But, c\'mon he just barely won. Probably a pace factor imho. C/B better than I realize.

Tracksmith - A second Calumet entry this one trained by Joe Sharp. He needs some excuse for his Dixiana performance and I doubt he enters the starting gate. By Streetsense warrants a second look which I\'m not apt to do as I tire.

Uncle Benny - Unbeaten & trained by Jason Servis another talented colt but just one of many stepping up to tougher competition.

The New York & East Coast Gang
I will be surprised to see any of this group contends just as APNY contends.

The Florida Colts
Louder Than Bombs although unlikely is a jump up candidate imho and price s/b generous.

The Kentucky Locals
Many in here just because they are here and probably won\'t start. If Pico Entry is the best of this group then I\'ll look for a match bet against the group.

The SoCal Contingent
I really like a couple of these but worry about the warm cold ship. Its the Flying Scotsman for me. King of Speed also hopefully one or the other gets in.

The Euros
We\'ve all learned that for whatever the reason the Euro turf horses just beat their U.S. counterparts. Why should we axpect that to change?  Can\'t knock Broome he tough as nails and I\'ll add Line of Duty, Arthur Kitt.

Bottom Line
The euros and a Socal runner if in as a ebxs, tbxs.

[Tavasco]

I appreciate your effort and thanks for your thoughts.

[Tavasco]

The 2017 version of this race:

A. Was won by Mendelssohn (IRE) who has become an accomplished dirt horse and is expected by some to contend in this years classic.

B. 2nd placed finisher Untamed Domain (Top TG# earner) is still trained by Graham Motion and has not won a race since while trying regularly. GM does not seem to have an entry in this years BCJT.

C. Voting Control 3rd for Chad Brown, demonstrated the Pilgrim is a bonafide prep for BC unfortunately has yet to race again.

D. Catholic Boy is a \"steam\" horse heading into this year\'s BCC.

Note - A euro won but the tri and super were filled out by Eastern & Midwestern US colts.

E. Beckford (GB) raced once since BC winning @ CD the week before the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

F. Masar (IRE) - Flopped in Dubai and then had a successful 2018 spring in Great Britain. Hasn\'t raced since.

G. My Boy Jack - another who switched to dirt but without as much success to date. Ankle chip, surgery, expected to return in 2019.

H. Flameaway - another who turned out to be a nice dirt horse.

Where were the highly touted Euros? Toiling mid pack!

I. Sands of Mali (FR) - Had a successful 2018 campaign culminated with a win 2 weeks ago @ Ascot in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes.

J. James Garfield (IRE) - Came back to win his next race after the BC and is still looking for another. Current form is dismal.

K. Rajasinghe (IRE) - ran once again in the spring of 2018 then retired.

L. Snapper Sinclair - finished last in last years rendition but got on the Ky Derby trail non the less down in La. before taking a lot of time off. Reappeared two weeks ago in an Alw @ Kee. Wasn\'t competitive.

Its curious that the Euros were not dominant last year. Its curious that so many of last years participants have become competent dirt horses. Its nice to see so many of them still in training. Maybe you can even remember who you liked last year. I can\'t.

[toppled]

I loved Catholic Boy last year off his With Anticipation win & went to a wedding on 12/2/17 & missed a chance to get 4/1 on him in the Remsen.  It took me until the Travers to finally cash on him.