Jockey Club thoughts (or questions)

[bluechip21]

Curious to see people’s thoughts on the JCGC. Did anyone have the winner? If so, what on the sheets led you to that? I certainly didn’t have him. (Forgive me if this is asking someone to redboard. Not the intent.)

Does anyone think Diversify’s poor effort was because of a bounce? Or was it because of the hot pace. Scratching my head on what to do with him and Mendy in the BC. Can Mendy rate?

I think my quick reaction to this race is that Catholic Boy is looking better and better by the day.

Edit: typo

[Tavasco]

Either Diversify can\'t be controlled and truly needs to lead. Or the jockey Ortiz screwed the pooch and mis-judged the pace. If one wants to call the race a bounce, which it technically is, I contend it was caused by running too fast early.

In any event I do not like Diversify going forward. Stick a fork in him. The top three now that\'s another story. Just opinion.

[bobphilo]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Either Diversify can\'t be controlled and truly
> needs to lead. Or the jockey Ortiz screwed the
> pooch and mis-judged the pace. If one wants to
> call the race a bounce, which it technically is, I
> contend it was caused by running too fast early.
>
> In any event I do not like Diversify going
> forward. Stick a fork in him. The top three now
> that\'s another story. Just opinion.

Agree, total pace meltdown. The order of finish was the exact reverse of the positions of those 4 horses at the pace call. Either Ortiz acted like an idiot or Diversify cannot be rated.

I think Mendelssohn\'s strategy was like he ran in the Travers where he ran a quick 1st quarter to get the lead and then slowed the pace to save something for the stretch. The only difference is that Catholic Boy merely tracked him while Diversify responded to the pace in force and either did not or would not be controlled.

In any case Mendy ran a big race and seems to be cycling back to his freakish performance in the U.A.E. Derby. Should be a big factor in the BC Classic, which was the goal in the 1st place.

[rhagood]

He was definitely sent.  Ortiz was low on his back and pumping his arms from the get go, unfortunately Mendelsshon went with him. O\'Brien wants to keep sharpening his speed and liked the race as a set up for the Breeder\'s Cup. Me thinks it was a bad decision either by jock or trainer.  Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., on Diversify, said: \"The track was fast and I had to go harder than usual because Mendelssohn was very quick out of there, and I needed to make the lead. I had to use a lot to make the lead. We just went a little fast.\"  A little is an understatement...

Diversify         22.72,:45.64,1:09.13,1:33.89
Imperial Hint     22.09,:44.37,1:08.27

Diversify\'s owner is on the conservative side saying in the past that the Breeder\'s Cup wasn\'t that high on his list preferring to win a race like the JCGC which they did last year and then skipped the BC.  I would be surprised if they go at this point.

[Dana666]

If you saw both sheets, on Ragozin he had zero shot; on t-graphs he looked a  bit better. But how do you predict that kind of suicide pace? Men.\'s race is kind of crazy unless you think O\'Brien really feels they\'re sharpening him up for the BC classic. By doing what they did he had zZERO chance to win that race. He ran incredibly well to still be fighting at the end. Maybe if you trust O\"Brien you might really like him in the Classic. Not sure I do regarding his dismal dirt record. We\'ll have to look at the pace scenario and how the track is playing--if he gets an ez lead then yes, he\'s a huge threat in the classic; I\'m not too excited about any of them from this weekend\'s races. I thought Accelerate won on class alone; he looked fried to me. Catholic Boy is looking better and better.

[johnnym]

I read the other day  Baffert said McKinzie lost weight from the shipping.
Maybe he is confirming What Fairmont1 has been saying all along.
If McKinzie doesn’t run Catholic Boy looks visually tough.

[Boscar Obarra]

Those kinds of winners are impossible to PREDICT

 The only way for anyone but a stabber to have them on top ,it to assume that once in a while , something like we saw will happen.

 So you position yourself with a saver for those \'rare\' events.

 Price was high enough to justify it, if you were putting together  a decent size play.

 Super came back enormous for an 8 horse field (about 25k), so some 10 cent tickets with the winner on top not out of the question.  Of course you don\'t know what the payoff will be in advance, you can only assume if the favorite runs out , you will get paid.

[bobphilo]

I may be wrong but I think that Catholic Boy is being a bit over-rated, mainly on the strength of his Travers win. That race came up much slower than expected and many of the top contenders did not run their best races. He tracked a much slower pace than Diversity set in the JCGC and, while he did beat Mendelssohn in that race, Mendy\'s performance in the JCGC indicates that he is cycling back to the freakishly fast figure he set in the U.A.E. Derby and the BC Classic is the race he has been pointed to all along.
I would not throw out Diversity either due to the JCGC. That performance should get a line put through it due to the suicidal pace he set. Of course if that was because he cannot be rated, rather than a rider pace error, then he could be vulnerable in the BC Classic. That might be true for Mendy as well but a lot depends on what the pace and strategies will be in the Classic.

[Fairmount1]

John,

Careful there.  I\'ve taken it on the chin for \"conspiracy theories\" as recently as today in private messages concerning this BC and BB topic.  Some interesting reading in this link, Horseman\'s Information Guide.    

https://members.breederscup.com/doc%20repository/other/hig.pdf

Pages 16-17 and pages 88-115 might be of interest.  Also, several phone numbers from key figures here if interested in asking more questions of people involved here.

From page 16:  

Breeders’ Cup Condition of Entry
As a condition of entry for any BCWC race, no horse within six months of the BCWC shall test positive for any anabolic steroid or any other prohibited substance described under the ARCI prohibited substance list. Any horse testing positive for anabolic steroids or other ARCI prohibited substances in a BCL out-of-competition test sample during the six-months prior to the BCWC will be ineligible to participate in BCWC.

On a likely unrelated note, did I see a trainer with potentially 3 horses for the Classic just return from LONG layoffs since the 1. Pegasus (Jan), 2. Dubai World Cup (March), and 3. San Felipe (March).  Would they have been tested say 3 months ago since they weren\'t racing (not in \"training\" possibly?) and unlikely to make the BC given they weren\'t racing since at least March??    

Very interesting time as BC approaches.  More and more horses dropping out, coming in off layoffs, coming in off a single prep, and running really poor before the big dance.  Hmmm, quite the chess match being played here by many, many trainers it seems.

[bluechip21]

It is difficult for me to address all of the responses over multiple posts, so I will just lump it all into one.

Tavasco: I tend to agree with you. This could also be towards bobphilo and rhagood, but I tend to think that:

1-   The suicide pace was likely the reason for not finishing.
 
2-   If memory serves me correctly, Irad is not the best of jocks when riding speed horses. I could be wrong (and if I am, please correct me) but on the lead types is not his forte (this is of course holding him to a higher standard than most jocks given his ability).

3-   I’ve been reading the sheets for a little over 3 years now, so clearly not the expert level like others, but I’m curious to see what some of the elder statesmen around here say about horses say for horses that were a victim of hot paces last out. I know the sheets note slow paces, but curious for the opposite. This may fly in the face of the “sheet theory”, but still something I wonder. Maybe TGAB can drop some knowledge in this department. I guess this is what Jerry means when he says \"you have to make distinctions\"
 

Rhagood: you make an excellent observation on the fractions between a 6F and a 10F race. Thanks for this insight. As a Mendy fan, I am of the theory that AOB was sharpening his horse.


Dana666: Personally, I thought the pace would be hot as I figured someone (Mendy) would challenge Diversify. Did not expect those fractions! Also, what I did not have was the winner. I had Thunder Snow as a C (that ticket blew up in the turf race) and with that, I figured Thunder Snow would be much closer to the pace, so even that logic wasn’t correct. (not a redboard, just as saying a had a horse as a C is not an accomplishment in my book.) I went back and looked at Discreet Lovers (Image?) and the best thing I could come with was that the 0 followed by the 3 was indicating declining form. In retrospect, I suppose the 0 fit if the two pace setters faded, but even at that, I would’ve been more into other closers. (Patch? Gronk?) Hindsight always 20/20.  I had the Looch horse as a B, and that was a poor idea. I’ve told people to remind me to look for his name before clicking “submit bet” in the future.


Bobphilo: Interesting insight on Catholic Boy. To me at the moment, the horse is something special. Didn’t have him in the travers. But looking back, you toss the race where he bled and the Tampa track, he has quite the resume.


It’s going to be a fun month around here and I look forward to the discussion leading up to the BC!

[TempletonPeck]

Yeah, I can\'t imagine why people would accuse you of advancing conspiracy theories.

[Fairmount1]

TP,

I guess you bet on Masochistic when he ran 2nd in the BC Sprint in 2016.  

From Paulick Report:  https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/questions-remain-steroids-likely-breeders-cup-dq-masochistic/

Question Four (Why were Breeders\' Cup officials not told by the California Horse Racing Board that out-of-competition testing indicated Masochistic had stanozolol in his system just over a week before his race?): The fact the California Horse Racing Board could not inform the Breeders\' Cup of an out-of-competition finding is the ultimate catch-22. Masochistic was tested out of competition because of a participation agreement in a Breeders\' Cup challenge race, the Pat O\'Brien Stakes at Del Mar. The out-of-competition testing program was paid for by the Breeders\' Cup, but there is a California Horse Racing Board Rule, 1842, dealing with horses placed on the vet\'s list for medication, that reads: “Any such report is confidential and its content shall not be disclosed except in a proceeding before the stewards or the Board, or in exercise of the Board\'s jurisdiction.”

In addition, California\'s Veterinary Practice Act protects patient-veterinary confidentiality. So the regulatory board could not communicate to Breeders\' Cup the fact a horse tested positive out of competition for a drug that is only prohibited on race day.

__________________________________________

Conspiracy??  Nah....just the horseplayer/gambler taking it on the chin being presented with races to gamble on in the BC when some Powers that Be including trainer and CHRB knew the horse had anabolic steroids in his system.  Luckily the rule is 6 months now.  But since the OOC tests are likely confidential we don\'t have all the information we should have.  Wonder if they tested for the Zenyatta Stakes?  And I wonder if they tested all, some or none?  But we will never know.....in a game where information is king.

[TempletonPeck]

Not sure why my bet on Masochistic in the 2016 BC Sprint (and I do think I made one, but can\'t say for sure - my recollection is that I thought he appeared the most likely winner on TG but was a short price, I just can\'t remember whether I pushed the button or not) has any bearing on anything.

In general, I think you make some good points regarding testing, the lack of information, and so on. (For what it\'s worth, with regard to Masochistic, I would say the far better example is the rather large betting coup perpetrated at CD on Derby Day in 2014.)

But, lately it seems that you have a particular bee in your bonnet regarding BB (nyuk!), although to my recollection you haven\'t cited any evidence other than what you feel is his suspiciously good record in N.Y., and his suspiciously bad record in the B.C. Those facts fit with your theory, but they fit with a thousand others also. Absent more, you don\'t have it, and I just think the assertion police should round you up at some point.

[Fairmount1]

I appreciate the civil and constructive criticism.  

If you read some specific posts, they have cited facts on the board in the past with stats concerning his record at Del Mar in Graded Stakes races (twitter ran wild with it after I posted it here), posted his NY graded stakes record predicting which horse would \"whistle through the lane\", I predicted to a degee his lack of success in last year\'s BC on the board, and even privately told friends to play him in the SA stakes races this past weekend after saying DON\'T play him in the Del Mar graded stakes races.

I understand I need to tone it down on this front.  I will be more selective with my posts concerning him (leaving some room here for a post closer to/around BC time if I choose).

[APny]

Fairmount,

Are you saying that trainers only recently found out the steroid withdrawl period would be 6 months? And that Baffert is looking for a reason now to scratch McKinzie?

AP