Bing on ROTW

[Silver Charm]

Well done. Well ridden by Hernandez who took position on first turn. Difference in race

Also apology for Lake Placid pick SF. Turf course is horrible. They look like they are running in Sand. UGLY to watch.

[dsipes]

Enjoyed the write up on SKEPTIC for the Race of The Week.  

Question: it stated in Skeptic\'s write up that a bounce would not have been a surprise after Skeptic posted his new top 6, which was 4 3/4 improvement from prior Top.  I know each case can be different, but GENERALLY, how much of a point spread would get your attention to declare a bounce wouldn\'t be a surprise???

[TGAB]

The easy response is greater than a 7-1/4 since the TG figure-based studies measure pair-ups as within a point, anywhere from a 5-1/4 to 7-1/4. But it\'s kind of hard to say--even a 10 would have been a secondary top, but obviously the better the top, the more confident this handicapper would be as to how badly she was affected by the first 6. In Skeptic\'s case even a 7-1/2, 8 might have been okay, a slight reaction though an 0-2, but I would\'ve wanted a slightly bigger price. She obviously would have hit set-back level. It\'s a question of feel but the timing here, overall, was good.  

One really wants to look for strong patterns. This can\'t be emphasized enough. The horse may not fast enough but much, much more often than not they\'ll give good runs.

[dsipes]

Thank you.  Another question.

 When a 2yo runs a number that is strong enough to set it back a couple of months, roughly how many points can Thorograph project that horse to run faster than that \"setback\" number in its future development?  7 to 10 points?

[Silver Charm]

If its a 2YO the set back could be permanent. Amd is it development if a runner is just trying to get back to a fast 2YO top? These are play against. Just my opinion

[johnnym]

Sometimes never look at Bolt this year.
Look thru the archives lots of good info there.
You just may learn us something.
Good Luck

[TGAB]

Silver Charm\'s response notwithstanding, which certainly happens, look at the TGI (Thoro-Graph Index, an average of tops run by the sire\'s runners in each category) for the sire. As a rule tbreds develop about 6 points from their 2yo top through their 4yo year and a point more for 5 and up. All levels of talent will run close to this average, the faster more talented horses will do it at lower numbers and the slower less talented ones will it t at higher numbers.

As Johnnym suggests look in the archives you\'ll be surprised just how solid this development mean is.