Class of 2017

[Silver Charm]

May go down as one of the worst of all time. Derby Winner Always Dreaming, then Preakness winner Cloud Computing and Belmont Winner Tapwrit all have not won another race. Zilch.

McCraken has been officially declared not what we thought he was gonna be. Derby runnerup Lookin at Lee has an allowance win on his resume. Classic Empire is retired with more Ocala Stimulants in him than 3YO wins. Irish War Cry is just trying to finish a race. Patch with his earlier Allowance win has more wins than the rest of this bunch using just one eye....

To be fair West Coast became a very good horse. I assume he is still in training. Practical Joke was a decent Miler and Battle of Mideay won BC Mile and was given the usual Winstar bums rush to Stud before he could spit box and cool out.

Glad to see a couple of New York Bred olders step up and fill a massice void yesterday. Diversify is gelding and he isnt going anywhere. Powerful effort yesterday.

[BitPlayer]

I think Battle of Midway is back in training due to fertility issues.

[Fairmount1]

Interesting post on several fronts SC.  

I feel like one of them is free bait for me so I\'ll bite on the West Coast front.

Yesterday it was reported that West Coast may go straight to the BC Classic off only workouts.  If that doesn\'t work out (pun intended), then they will point to the Clark followed by a run in the Pegasus.  The horse has not raced since Dubai in March.  I\'ve documented how it will be interesting to see how Baffert does this year based on last year\'s BC results (lack of winners at Del Mar).  

Here is the quote from the owner and he hits the nail on the head:  \"Bob is an absolute magician in getting a horse to a race off works,\" West told BloodHorse. \"He does it better than anyone else I have ever seen in my life.\"

A magician he says....hmmm....interesting metaphor to call a horse trainer of Baffert\'s level a magician.  I wonder why he would want to bring the horse in off works.  SC mentions he \"assume he is still in training.\"  Well that\'s the rub right?  What little we do know is that the rules for certain medications and treatments differ based on whether a horse is \"in training\" or not.  So, who knows the latest trick double B has up his sleeve to counter last year\'s rule changes that may or may not have affected his horses\' performances at the BC.  If he doesn\'t make the BC with West Coast, my guess is that the rest of Baffert\'s brigade may not have a great BC.  Something to certainly keep an eye on moving ahead.

[phil23]

Post of the year Fairmont.  yeah, magician, he\'s certainly that.  

very interesting referencing difference in rules.

[Tavasco]

With regard to West Coast it seems he should have won in Dubai. The fact that he didn\'t seems less a compliment to the winner than a caution that the outing wast not a good effort from West Coast. It\'s reasonable that he was a victim of the \"speed bias.\"

That said some of BB\'s trainees just seem to stop being competitive and are usually retired post haste. Game of Dude comes to mind and then suddenly if he can\'t get an easy lead he can\'t win.

Of course many of BB\'s stars are retired early in order to cash in on Breeding revenue. In those cases its hard to know what kind of success/longevity they might have had as older horses.

I\'m supposing whatever magic BB uses puts intense strain on his horses and has a cumulative long term negative effect. Understand I\'m just blowing smoke and have no objective explanation. But that does not change the impression I get watching his stable all told.

If the juveniles don\'t excel we don\'t see or hear about them. His success in pointing a horse to a specific race or even series of races is well known what seems to dovetail with that ability is his unwillingness to run a horse that is not shouting \"Put Me In Coach\"

What has not been discussed much is how fast his runners disappear from competiition once it goes back in a race or two. West Coast s/b capable of a competitive summer performance and c/b he is just saving his last bullet for BC or Pegasus.

[johnnym]

How can you ever have a great class of horse’s again?
Any decent horse is retired at the drop of a hat and allowance horse’s are running in stakes races due to attrition what do you expect?

[richiebee]

Fairmount:

I hate to respond by serving up a heaping helping of word salad, but are you
implying that Baffert will try to avoid out of competition testing (OOCT) by
keeping runners like West Coast out of competition?

You mention the \"rules changes\" in the 2017 BC at Del Mar. The real change was
that, after the Masochistic mess in the 2016 BC (California authorities
apparently knew pre race that Masochistic would likely test positive for
steroids, but felt that they were legally constrained from communicating this
to the BC powers that be), the folks at Breeders Cup decided to take OOCT into
their own hands rather than leaving such testing to the host state/track.
In advance of the 2017 BC at Del Mar, Dora Delgado, speaking on behalf of the
BC, stated that \"The Breeders Cup is on target to test upwards of 90% of all
runners [entered in the BC]...at least one horse from every trainer\'s stable
will be tested...\" In the end, as best as I can tell doing some brief research
and without submitting a FOIL request, 195 horses were subjected to OOCT. I do
not know if this figure includes horses based outside North America. The other
question would be if this figure includes some, or many, horses which did not
compete in the BC. Or am I reading this skeptically, when in truth 195 of the
200 plus BC runners were subjected to OOCT?

Is there any way to assure that all BC competitors will be subjected to OOCT? I
am not certain what the expense involved with OOCT is, but there were
approximately 445 graded stakes scheduled to be run in the United States in 2018
(not counting the BC events)(My opinion: that is way too many graded stakes,
another example of the tail (the Breeding Industry) wagging the dog (the sport
of horse racing)). A vast majority of the runners who will compete
in the 2018 BC at CD will have started at least once in a graded stake. If BC
tested the top three finishers in each of these 445 graded events (a) it is
likely that all US based BC runners will have been OOCT\'d and (b) many more
than 195 runners will have been tested, even taking into account the fact that
many runners will be multiple stakes winners/multiple stakes placed. Some
might argue that such extensive testing is overkill in that many runners will
be tested who do not eventually compete in the BC. Maybe such far reaching OOCT
is something the Jockey Club and the BC could undertake as a joint venture,
because...

\"OOCT is largely used as a deterrent and fact finding enterprise\". These
were the words of Rick Arthur, DVM, of the California Horse Racing Board
(CHRB). Fairmount, you studied law and know that the word deterrent
is another way of saying \"we will arrest a small portion of the criminal
actors, and hope those arrests discourage other potential criminal
actors\". Anyone who has seen the movie \"Deepwater Horizon\" (John Malkovich
excellent as the full speed ahead company man) knows that \"Hope is not a
strategy\". In any case, casting a wider net, performing testing on as many
graded stakes performers as possible, would have a greater deterrent effect.

Could Baffert game the OOCT protocol by keeping a horse such as West Coast on
the bench and giving him one prep close up before the BC, as he did with Secret
Circle in the 2013 BC Sprint (check archives), or even run off an eight month
layoff just off works? I think the fact that he has mentioned the BC as a
possibility is enough to make West Coast a viable candidate for OOCT testing,
especially if he shows up on the work tab with typically fast Baffert works. If
the name of the game was to try to avoid OOCT, I would imagine owner, trainer,
stablehands would have to be sworn to silence regarding the horse\'s future
plans.

Could Baffert win the BC Classic off an eight month layoff? Baffert is known for
being able to work horses faster/longer than most of his cohorts. There are
advantages to working a horse long and fast as opposed to running him/her: The
horse gets the benefit of heart, lung and leg conditioning without the stress
(detention barn protocol, paddock distractions, loading into a full starting
gate) of running in an afternoon/evening race. Horses are not routinely tested
after workouts. Some horses will probably thrive off being teased with a series
of long fast works while not facing race competition. As you know, my theory is
that any pharmacological advantage Baffert might be taking is in the
preparation: many Baffert horses, especially youngsters, have worked faster in
the morning (over a surface that we can assume is not as fast as the afternoon
race surface) than many of their competitors will ever run in the afternoon. Of
course, extenuating circumstances (purse money, Derby points, \"Win and Your In\"
considerations, foolish owners who expect to see their horses race in the
afternoon) dictate that a horse eventually is brought to the starting
gate for pari-mutuel racing.

To summarize, Baffert\'s ability to work horses (especially young horses)long
and fast gives these runners a distinct advantage if and when they make it to
the races. I would not be surprised if PEDs played a part in this \"long and
fast\" regimen. Would it be interesting if some banned race day PEDs were
absolutely banned, and all horses working 6 furlongs or more were tested
after said works? Or if horses working at any distance were randomly tested? If
anything, it would probably prove to be a revealing \"fact finding
enterprise\", to use the words of Rick Arthur.

[richiebee]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> A magician he says....hmmm....interesting metaphor
> to call a horse trainer of Baffert\'s level a
> magician.  I wonder why he would want to bring the
> horse in off works.  SC mentions he \"assume he is
> still in training.\"  Well that\'s the rub right?
> What little we do know is that the rules for
> certain medications and treatments differ based on
> whether a horse is \"in training\" or not.  So, who
> knows the latest trick double B has up his sleeve
> to counter last year\'s rule changes that may or
> may not have affected his horses\' performances at
> the BC.  If he doesn\'t make the BC with West
> Coast, my guess is that the rest of Baffert\'s
> brigade may not have a great BC.  Something to
> certainly keep an eye on moving ahead.

A few words about the Baffert Brigade:

2018: Baffert Graded Stakes Wins January 1- August 1: 13
2017: Baffert Graded Stakes Wins January 1- August 1: 23

As I have said before, if Baffert wants to slow down, downsize, cut back, he
may end up training a \"boutique barn\" comprised exclusively of high priced
2YOs and 3YO Triple Crown prospects. But looking at the graded stake stat
above, and taking into consideration that 3 of the 2018 graded stake wins have
been retired, Baffert\'s possible lack of success at the 2018 BC may just be a
function of him not having the horses this year.

Breeders Cup Wins, 2010-2017

Aidan O\'Brien..8
Chad Brown.....8
Bob Baffert....7
Todd Pletcher..6
Steve Asmussen.5
Bill Mott......4

I am sorry if these statistics might have an error or two. It is sometimes
difficult to compose TG posts while people are milling around your desk
clucking about deadlines and filing dates. My point is that by no means should
one consider Baffert a dominant BC trainer.

That being said, and this is difficult for a New Yorker to say, Baffert\'s three
consecutive BC Classic wins with three different horses has to be mentioned
along with Woody\'s five consecutive Belmonts (and Oscar S. Barrera winning six
consecutive races with Teriyaki Stake -- all in the month of March, 1986) as
being among the great training feats of all time.

[skitimber]

I could not let this one pass and setting aside Oscar Barrera for a moment:

The $2 parlay on WS 5 consecutive Belmont Stakes would have gotten you $2891.70.   Baffert\'s 3 BC\'s: $65 and change.

Look at it another way:  Set the odds at either winning their respective race before the start of the year at  20-1.  Then the odds of what Baffert has done is 8000-1 while Stephens is at 3.2 million to 1.

Even lower the odds of Stephens winning each to 10-1 instead of 20-1 puts him at 100,000-1 - still dwarfing what Baffert did in 3 years.

Use the number of horses in the field as the probability that each horse wins the respective race:  Baffert:1 in 1134, Stephens 1 in 199,650, a leap of 176 to 1 to get from Baffert to Stephens!  This doesn\'t even take into account Baffert\'s multiple entries (don\'t recall if Stephens had any!) which would reduce his odds considerably.  Obviously it is an achievement in most cases to get a horse to this race (which is why you can use any of the other metrics above!)

Baffert pointed to the BC\'s.  Stephen\'s first winner, Conquistador Cielo, won the Met mile just 5 days earlier and under Baffert would likely not even been entered in the Belmont.

If Arrogate (or West Coast or Collected or Mubtaahij) had won last year, Baffert would now be in a position to simply try for five.  But he failed with the favorite and two others at odds less than 6-1.

Compare them as winning trainers and Baffert comes out on top.  Great for the sport, tough call for me.

But comparing only the streaks, I rest my case.

[richiebee]

Skitimber:

Great post. And yes Woody had multiple entries in at least one Belmont. In 1985,
Creme Fraiche became the first gelding to win the Belmont. Stephan\'s Odyssey, trained by Woody, completed the exacta.

The story goes that Woody was sitting with the owners of both CF (Elizabeth Moran) and SO (Henryk deKwiatkowski). Stephen\'s Odyssey made a big sweeping move late in the race and deKwiatkowski jumped out of his seat and began hugging Woody. Woody looked at deKwiatkowski and said \"Now go hug Mrs. Moran, her horse just went by yours.\"

[Socalman3]

skitimber Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I could not let this one pass and setting aside
> Oscar Barrera for a moment:
>
> The $2 parlay on WS 5 consecutive Belmont Stakes
> would have gotten you $2891.70.   Baffert\'s 3
> BC\'s: $65 and change.
>
> Look at it another way:  Set the odds at either
> winning their respective race before the start of
> the year at  20-1.  Then the odds of what Baffert
> has done is 8000-1 while Stephens is at 3.2
> million to 1.
>
> Even lower the odds of Stephens winning each to
> 10-1 instead of 20-1 puts him at 100,000-1 - still
> dwarfing what Baffert did in 3 years.
>
> Use the number of horses in the field as the
> probability that each horse wins the respective
> race:  Baffert:1 in 1134, Stephens 1 in 199,650, a
> leap of 176 to 1 to get from Baffert to Stephens!
> This doesn\'t even take into account Baffert\'s
> multiple entries (don\'t recall if Stephens had
> any!) which would reduce his odds considerably.
> Obviously it is an achievement in most cases to
> get a horse to this race (which is why you can use
> any of the other metrics above!)
>
> Baffert pointed to the BC\'s.  Stephen\'s first
> winner, Conquistador Cielo, won the Met mile just
> 5 days earlier and under Baffert would likely not
> even been entered in the Belmont.
>
> If Arrogate (or West Coast or Collected or
> Mubtaahij) had won last year, Baffert would now be
> in a position to simply try for five.  But he
> failed with the favorite and two others at odds
> less than 6-1.
>
> Compare them as winning trainers and Baffert comes
> out on top.  Great for the sport, tough call for
> me.
>
> But comparing only the streaks, I rest my case.

Additional factors to consider that make Woody\'s feat more impressive are:

(a) the Belmont is only open to 3yos....if you get injured or miss it, no trying a second time....there is a much smaller pool of horses that could be Belmont winners (factoring in 3yo only, time of year, uncommon distance)

(b) the BC Classic is open to all ages and comes at a time of year that is much easier to make and is at a distance that is not nearly as unusual as the Belmont distance....much larger pool of horses to draw from

(c) how many years in a row would Kelso, Forego, John Henry* have won the BC Classic if it existed at the time?  How does that impact the feat? In theory, with two great geldings of the right vintages, you could win 6 BC Classics in a row with only 2 horses -- seems one feat is more reliant on the trainer and less on the horses than the other feat.

Maybe I am missing something else?

*John Henry was entered in the first Breeders Cup, but scratched due to career ending injury

[belmont3]

Richie,

Speaking of Henry deKwiatkowski, he also owned Conquistador Cielo (1st in the streak and Danzig Connection. (the last).

And he owned Danzig who won his only 3 career starts.

Not bad for a Polish immigrant

Was present for Danzig\'s last effort...which was a 7f dash at Belmont a little while back when I had a full head of hair...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIXV-mHds5w

[Fairmount1]

Richiebee, (sorry for the delayed response time)

You know I value and respect your well thought out opinions.  I could write an enormous amount on this subject with theories and ideas I\'ve created trying to explain much of the Baffert magic.  I\'ll try to keep it focused to make my point.  There is no better word to describe him than magician as Gary West artfully provided to bloodhorse in the interview I referenced.  Sometimes magicians\' tricks are unveiled or uncovered.  I am not a vet, not a chemistry expert, and not in the know with any testing.  I\'ve never understood magic and I\'ve never worked with a horse besides a retired lazy quarter horse my dad owned the first 25 years of my life as a pet. I\'m just a dumb old handicapper with a bit of law background you referenced.  It is my belief that Baffert is one of those guys that will follow the letter of the law but not necessarily the spirit of the law.  I can\'t unveil or uncover his tricks but I sure can see patterns that indicate enough to imply certain issues with his trainees.  One of my best angles I\'ve shared with a close group of friends I\'ll share here for the purpose of making my point.  And it is still useful through Labor Day likely.  

At Del Mar in Graded Stakes since the start of the summer 2017 meet (Summer of \'17, BC \'17, Nov. \'17, and Summer, \'18 to date), BB has a record of:  1 for 32.  The one win was in the Pacific Classic when Collected beat Arrogate in a field of 7  that included 4 tomato cans as this site has been known to call such horses and Accelerate who wasn\'t a star yet.  I doubt anyone on here can even believe that stat is true.  But it is.  In the previous 50 starters at Del Mar prior to last summer in graded stakes, he had 13 winners for a cool 26 percent.  (Did the competition get tougher in Del Mar graded stakes since the start of last summer\'s meet or did something else happen?  I bet the magician and his assistant know but would never tell you!)  

In other news, I saw that Baffert is shipping Marley\'s Freedom to Saratoga rather than running at Del Mar.  She earned a 105 Beyer in May at Santa Anita.  I guess Baffert isn\'t pointing for the Del Mar meet.  Or maybe she just doesn\'t like the surface.  

In NY, Baffert\'s record has been almost impeccable the last two years.  Just ask any of the locals in your neighborhood about his work with Hoppertunity in NY, Drefong, Arrogate, West Coast among many others.  I don\'t have the NY numbers handy but his graded stakes record there after shipping across the country back and forth is out of this world.  If memory serves, in the last two Belmont Stakes Festivals, Baffert has won with West Coast, Abel Tasman, Hoppertunity, Justify, among others.  On Travers Day the last two years, he has won with Arrogate, (2nd with American Freedom), West Coast, Drefong, and Abel Tasman in the CCA in \'17 at Saratoga among others I believe.  Yet just one graded stakes win at Del Mar.  And the margins of those NY graded stakes victories weren\'t all by just a nose.    

On another note, Baffert\'s record in MSW races at Del Mar is spectacular given how everyone points for that meet out there.  In MSW races the past two years at Del Mar, he is 19 for 73, 26 percent (the same as his graded stakes record there until last summer\'s meet kicked in).  Many include the same horses that don\'t run well in graded stakes out there after breaking their maiden or don\'t run in graded stakes there at all.

For me, I see patterns.  The pattern I see is not congruent with the idea that he *only* works his horses with an advantage that allows him to race them faster than everyone else.  Some have theorized that PED\'s explain his success.  I don\'t know any of that whatsoever.  But it is interesting that he has \"come up with\" three of the greatest horses of all time in the last 5 years.  In Arrogate\'s old age of 4, he fell apart as we all know after his trip to Dubai.  Must have been the Dubai bounce.  It had nothing to do with jurisdiction, or rather, Venue Issues or the 6 month steroid withdrawal rule that applied for the 2018 BC (but not the 2017 BC when he didn\'t race him between the Travers and the BC).  

I don\'t have the answers but my belief is the rules for different tracks, different states, different jurisdictions and venues varies widely and greatly with respect to testing and security in graded stakes events esp in the BC.  And esp at Del Mar.  And a magician knows where he can hide a card up his sleeve or misdirect the audience\'s attention and when and where he can\'t.  I guess we call that the art of knowing \"where\" to spot his horses.  Of course, no rule is hard and fast as there are always moving parts in this industry.  

So Marley\'s Freedom heads to Saratoga.  The Best Pal just happened and Baffert didn\'t run anyone.  In last week\'s 2yo filly stakes, the Sorrento, he had no starters but has 3 future 2yo filly superstars in his barn in Chasing Yesterday, Mother Mother, and Der Lu.  I guess he just doesn\'t point for the Del Mar Graded stakes schedule.  Oh wait....was the Breeders Cup there last year???  I hope I\'ve at least made a point as to why I personally see him as a magician like his owner Gary West does with some facts that back up my assertions.  

There is much more I could say and write about but time is always of the essence.  I have more examples and facts but I can\'t give away all the secrets here.  I know I didn\'t address all of your issues, that this wasn\'t perfectly coherent but I wanted to get a few ideas out there so that you (and others obviously) understand where I\'m coming from when I made my innuendos about the Magic Man!!  Now you see me, now you don\'t!

On a completely unrelated note, did you see a vet making the point to the CHRB that having OOC testing would lead to a loss of integrity in horse racing?  It is hard to believe this is a viable stance but I wonder who the vets are seeking to protect with a stance like that.  The horses of course right??? Sarcasm (for those that can\'t discern it in written text) was used in that last line.  

 https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/228631/chrb-makes-progress-on-out-of-competition-testing?utm_source=BHTW&utm_mediumsocial=

As for the other two big name Magicians in the game, one is headed in a terrific direction sweeping graded stakes trifectas on turf all over the place while the other is floundering at Saratoga with his specialty, 2yo\'s at the Spa.  Funny fact, I don\'t think either one has started a horse at Kentucky Downs the last few years even with their monster purses and I honestly can\'t figure out exactly why not.

[Rich Curtis]

\"At Del Mar in Graded Stakes since the start of the summer 2017 meet (Summer of \'17, BC \'17, Nov. \'17, and Summer, \'18 to date), BB has a record of: 1 for 32.\"

  How many 2nds in that period?

[Silver Charm]

Was Collected the 1? Baffert beat himself? I wonder if the guy who had the $1,000,000 in the Show Pool on Arrogate knew this?