Class of 2017

[Fairmount1]

A couple of interesting questions. Rich, I\'m sure you know the answer to your question but I\'m happy to oblige.  

At Del Mar since the start of the 2017 Summer meet, Baffert\'s total record in graded stakes races is:  32-1-11-5 I believe.  I\'ve double checked it several times and believe it is accurate but excuse me if the P/S numbers aren\'t perfect as it is difficult to gather this data the way I do it.

As for Baffert\'s win with Collected and SC\'s tongue in cheek question.  At that time, BB was 0 for 7 in graded stakes to start the 2017 Summer meet I believe. Not too many people had probably picked up on it just yet.

Now, to take a bigger look and comparison to his NY graded stakes success, Baffert is 24-12-4-2 during the last two years in graded stakes in NY.  That\'s a 50 percent win percentage at the most competitive graded stakes circuit in the country (I think most would agree with this assertion about the NYRA circuit).  

A few of these horses have run in New York AND Del Mar.  They include Abel Tasman, Arrogate, Hoppertunity, Drefong, and Mor Spirit among some others like West Coast.  

Abel Tasman in Baffert\'s care is 8-4-3-0 after leaving Callaghan\'s barn.  In New York, she is 3 for 3.  Her lone Del Mar start for BB, 2nd.
Arrogate at Saratoga won by 13 1/2 lengths breaking the track record for 1 1/4 miles.  4th at Del Mar, 2nd at Del Mar, 5th at Del Mar BC.
Hoppertunity in NY 2 wins and a 4th.  At Del Mar since the summer of 17 meet started, one start at this meet and finished 2nd nearly 5 lengths behind the winner at 3-5.  
Drefong in NY, 2 for 2 in G1 races with a combined winning margin of 9 lengths.  The two starts at Del Mar during the time period I mention he finished 6th at 1.40-1 and 9th after dropping the jockey at odds of 1.80-1.
Mor Spirit in NY, 1 for 1 with a G1 win by 6 plus.  His lone start at Del Mar, 8th by 14 as the favorite.

Same horses at Saratoga/Belmont versus Del Mar with VERY different results.  One all the way across the country for him and the other a few hours south of his SA home base and he has stalls the entire time during the Del Mar meeting.  

The winning margins of the horses for the 12 winning graded stakes races in NY are:  7 1/2, 2 1/4, 1 3/4, 3 3/4, 1, 3 1/4, 6 1/4, 4, 3 1/4, 3 1/4, 13 1/2, head.  Convincing wins.

The margin for the 11 2nd place finishers at Del Mar in graded stakes behind the winner are:  3/4, neck, 1/2, 4 1/2, 2 1/4, 4 3/4, 3 1/4, 1 1/2, 2 1/2, 6 3/4, 1/2.  Just didn\'t have the finishing punch the horses in NY have....some of the VERY same horses.  

I know JB would use a figure comparison to make these comparisons and that is fine and likely more detailed.  But the win percentage is so glaring including the margins it seems obvious that NY is more favorable to his \"program\" than Del Mar is when it comes to winning graded stakes.  As I\'ve said, this year\'s BC will be very interesting since it is at CD but the rule is still in place re: the 6 month withdrawal period.

[APny]

Fairmount if I\'m every in your company I need to buy you a drink.  This is some great info and what this board should be all about.  How people can\'t look at this and say something nefarious is going on is beyond belief to me.  Problem is, Baffert is just too big to fail.

[RICH]

Fairmount

Thanks for that, very telling

[richiebee]

Fairmount:

Appreciate your dogged pursuit of the \"Great White\". Quint would be proud, and
here\'s to swimmin\' with bow legged women.

I\'ll pick and choose the points to address, and you know quite well that I feel
comfortable arguing both sides of an issue without any emotional attachment,
except for one statement. You called Arrogate, American Pharaoh and
Justify \"Three of the greatest horses of all time.\" Even given the fact that it
is rather impossible to compare human and equine athletes from different
generations, I suggest you take some time during your Saratoga sojourn to visit
the National Racing Hall of Fame. I will concede that Arrogate is right up
there with Ghostzapper among the best of this century. I will step out on a
limb and opine that Secretariat (champion on two surfaces, set world
records at 12 furlongs turf and dirt; pretty sure he set stake records in all 3
legs of Triple Crown); Spectacular Bid (his 4YO campaign possibly the greatest
in American racing history; carried weight and set track records at 7f and 10f)
and Forego (8 Eclipse Awards, 34 wins from 57 lifetime starts, all accomplished
on a scary bad set of wheels) would all have to be listed above the 3 Bafferts
on any GOAT list I would compose.

That\'s when a sport was a sport. I can\'t hold it against Secretariat,
Spectacular Bid and Forego that they did not have a \"Facebook\" page while they
were racing.

With regards to Pletcher and his precocious 2YO sprinters at the Spa, let\'s
look at the performance of his 3YOs in recent years. A couple of Belmont wins
and a near miss. Yes \"only\" two Derby wins since 2010. His success in the preps
and disappointments in the Derby have been well documented. In 2018 Pletcher
trainees won the La Derby, Wood, Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby. What did the
TAP trained winners of these four races have in common other than not having
much impact in the Triple Crown races? None of them started at the Spa as a
2YO. Audible was the first to make it to the races, beginning his career on
September 27. So while it is fun (I guess?) to continue the \"Magician\" theme,
is it possible that TAP, after burning through a lot of Competitive Edges,
decided that preparing 2YOs for dominant wins at 5 furlongs at the Spa was
counterproductive if the goal was to develop a classic winner?

The Del Mar stats are good, even if they only cover a two year period. But what
if Baffert comes back to Del Mar in 2019 as a 26% trainer? Does that mean that
the pachyderm is no longer in the room?

[Boscar Obarra]

That was my thought, that TAP changed something because he wasn\'t happy with the long term results.

 No way they all just stopped blasting out of the gate at random.

 Could be whatever was building up their speed early, got pulled from the program.

[FrankD.]

Guy’s,

No doubt he has changed his program and it started last year as 🐝 mentioned with his 2 big guns. TAP runners are no secret what so ever, every clocker’s eyes are glued to them on top of that Angel Cordero Johnny V’s agent, still gets on few in the AM to gallop has all his gambling buddies on speed dial.

Last year 2 days before opening day I was in his barn with a friend that is/has been involved with quite a few high profile horses with him for awhile. From Todd’s mouth Mojovation was his best 2 yr old that was race ready going in week 2 and Honey Glow & Machismo we’re both good and out opening weekend. I believe one of them won at a very short price and the other 2 got beat  at odds on, only 1 of the 3 did not break well and thought nothing of it at the time. There was no mention of any of his other babies that were relevant in the Derby preps, nor did they run at The Spa.

This year almost all of his bad breakers had only one gate work. One of the 2 baby winners this year had 2 gate works. (not looking any of this up)  Not only have they broke bad bad hardly a one has run a step after?

Obviously a hot topic in the backyard and at Sunday’s seminar with TG Jeff who had some good points about bad breakers being sore in their hind quarters. Before the meet started every single trainer was complaining about how deep and tiring the main track was, all the babies  that worked over it came back gassed and beat up. I felt like an idiot telling TGJB that on opening day and day 2 May have been the fastest raw times of the meet! Obviously they took a little off the top🤫

Todd & JJ Pletcher pick out a pretty good number of their yearlings for Todd’s owners. They didn’t lose their eye for horse flesh over night, JJ didn’t forget how to get the babies race ready and Todd didn’t forget how to train. One of my buddies left You’re to Blame out the pick 4 yesterday simply because he was sick of seeing B+ clocker reports on TAP’s that can’t break or run a step.....

Maybe it’s a simple as the white Mercedes hasn’t been seen at Oklahoma this year 😎

[Boscar Obarra]

Good stuff Frank,

 Fortunately , its not rocket science, you play the hands they are dealing until they change the deck.

[Fairmount1]

Richie B,

I personally don\'t believe they are three of the greatest.  But they accomplished things that certainly rank right up there with achievements of some historical greats whether they were on a level \"playing field\" or not.  But when your view of Baffert\'s success is as cynical as mine, it is unlikely I will ever believe Pharoah, Arrogate, and Justify should be even mentioned in the same sentence or paragraph as the ones you mentioned.  

Specifically, Secretariat.  I know Bid was great and have watched some of his replays.  I\'ve read about Forego but just can\'t really say I have any thought of where he would rank.  All that \"bee-ing\" said, no quarrel here with keeping those 3 out of the top list of Goat\'s.  

I\'m a Nicklaus over Woods guy.  I\'m a Ruth over Bonds guy.  I\'m Pele over Messi/Ronaldo/Neymar guy.  I\'m a Michael over Lebron guy.  I\'m a Bob Gibson over Roger Clemens guy (even as a Cubs fan)  .....So if you see the theme, I\'m certainly a Secretariat over these modern day Baffert\'s magic guy.

These are moving parts in the industry as I said.  BB could rattle off 4 straight graded stakes at Del Mar in a moment\'s notice.  If so, I look for other spots to try to beat heavy, heavy favorites when I can as a handicapper.  I mentioned my belief that something changed the day Drefong dropped his jock near the start of the Del Mar meet in \'17 to another TG guy.  He thought I was crazy to think Baffert\'s horses weren\'t running well at Del Mar to the extent I did.  I\'ve been following it ever since.

[Boscar Obarra]

By the time justify won the triple crown, I was watching it with the same awe I reserve for the acts on Penn & Tellers Fool Us.

[Silver Charm]

That last one is funny. I watched with about the same convincing awe of one of these made for TV mini-series. It happened but it doesnt mean it was real.

Fairmont how do you explain Bafferts poor DelMar success rate versus say Browns who did pretty well last Breeders Cup. (Rushing Fall, Good Magic, Beach Patrol, even ship Analyze It out Later). Is Browns \"blood work\" he is always talking about cleansing the levels of alien agents better in his post and pre race testing....

[Mike C]

Forego also carried crazy weight in many of the stakes wins, in the 70\'s handicap horses paid the price for greatness, like the time forego was beaten by Arbees boy in the 1974 Met mile, Arbees boy carried 112, Forego 134. Forego was one of the best horses I ever saw, and I have been around a long time. He ran 4th in Secretariats 1972 derby win, and his comment was Raced Green. He ran in an allowance race on Belmont day, and set a track record for 1 1/6 miles. So while Forego was not the best 3 year old (Secretariat, of course), his record as handicap horse was unmatched. Of course today, no trainer would ever race his horse while giving away so much weight.
How many races would a Forego have won if he carried equal weight with the rest of the field?

[philywheel]

I had  that exacta on Belmont day ,if I am not mistaken a horse name Cutlass reality ran 2nd ,I think the exacta came back about 6$,everyone had it
I also remember one day the mutual clerks went on strike so there was no betting at the Big A that day they still drew over 6000 people just to seethe MIGHTY ONE run
To me seeing FOREGO make that big wide run on the far turn (crowd would go crazy) was the most exciting thing Ive seen in sports
long time ago

philywheel

[philywheel]

the name of the horse that ran 2nd was Cutlass(just got it)
i dont remember when my daughter is tho

philywheel

[gowand]

I was 10 years old in 1977 and I begged my father to take me to Saratoga and watch Forego run.  That morning it was pouring but my father relented and took me anyway.  Anyone who was there will remember how bad it was and how bad Forego ran that day.  It didn\'t matter to me.  I remember it being so dark at post time that they turned on the Grandstand lights. I just took my ten year old son to the Saratoga the other day.  He didn\'t care  about takeout percentages or \"magician\" trainers and for that particular day either did I.  I just hope the sport is around for him to enjoy in 40 years.

[johnnym]

Pacific Classic BB has a first time starter with no running lines.
Hmmm?