Saratoga Pick-5 vs. Del Mar Pick-5 yesterday...

[JohnTChance]

Saratoga late Pick-5 paid out $1,001 per .50 bet yesterday that included a winning odds sequence with 4 obvious favorites:

3-2 * / 2-1 * / 5-2 * / 1-1 * / 5-1. That\'s with two Chads, a Todd and a Brad.

â€"â€"â€"â€"â€"â€"

Del Mar’s late Pick-5 paid out $834 per .50 bet yesterday with a winning odds sequence with 3 obvious favorites:

11 -1 / 8-5 * / 6-1 / 4-5 * / 3-1 *

Fascinating difference. 6Dmr [11-1] had 12 horses and and 8Dmr [6-1] had 13 horses.

[Dana666]

I\'ve noticed this type of disparity for many, many years now. Generally speaking, pick 4\'s and pick 5\'s pay way more at NYRA tracks than SO CAL. Doesn\'t make much sense because the pools are so large in SO CAL, but this is a common thing, especially pick 4\'s. It\'s ridiculous how much better NYRA pays. Now, pick 6\'s are a different animal. SO CAL still has the best pick 6\'s, but I can\'t explain the other wagers. I\'d love to hear an explanation.

[philywheel]

the late pik 5 is only open to nyra bets customer that are in nys or mobile ,its a greatbet if you can hit

philywheel

[BB]

Takeout on early and late Pick-5s at NYRA is 15%.

At Del Mar, takeout on early Pick-5 is 14% while takeout on late Pick-5 is 23.68%.

[Dana666]

I did not know that. Thanks.

[Mathcapper]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve noticed this type of disparity for many, many
> years now. Generally speaking, pick 4\'s and pick
> 5\'s pay way more at NYRA tracks than SO CAL.
> Doesn\'t make much sense because the pools are so
> large in SO CAL, but this is a common thing,
> especially pick 4\'s. It\'s ridiculous how much
> better NYRA pays. Now, pick 6\'s are a different
> animal. SO CAL still has the best pick 6\'s, but I
> can\'t explain the other wagers. I\'d love to hear
> an explanation.

The Pick 5’s at both circuits should pay roughly twice the parlay on average (at least the early Pick5 at So-Cal, which has been around for quite some time). Haven’t looked closely at the So-Cal circuit payoffs in about 5 years, but in the sample set I last looked at back in 2012 they were actually paying a little better than expected (+130% > parlay vs. +99% expected).

Would be very surprised if NYRA circuit is paying consistently better than So-Cal vis-à-vis the takeout-adjusted win parlays, but it’s possible they’re paying more on an absolute basis. Perhaps smaller fields at the So-Cal circuit have led to more compact probability distributions and/or a higher percentage of favorites/logical winners, which resulted in lower absolute payoffs(?)

Pool size shouldn’t have much of an effect on the overall payoffs, unless you’re dealing with some county fair or something where the pools are so small that the odds in the superexotic pools can be a poor reflection of the win pool odds.


BB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Takeout on early and late Pick-5s at NYRA is 15%.
> At Del Mar, takeout on early Pick-5 is 14% while
> takeout on late Pick-5 is 23.68%.

This has less of an effect than one might think. It only accounts for a fraction of the difference in yesterday’s payoffs that JTC noted in his original post.

The Del Mar parlay was $645, so at a 14% take, it should pay around 99% higher than the parlay, or around $1,284. At the 23.68% take, it should pay around 76% more than the parlay, or around $1,140. It actually came in at $835, about 29% higher than the parlay, which was a little light, but not all that much.

The Spa parlay on the other hand came back quite generous. The parlay was $220. At the 15% take, it should pay around 103% more than the parlay, or around $450. It actually paid $1,001, more than 4.5x the parlay, which is toward the higher end of the range you typically see, but it does happen on occasion.

[Fairmount1]

Interestingly, the Saratoga p5 had 40 horses in the sequence while the Del Mar sequence had 51.  (Not what would be expected).  

I hear you that pool size doesn\'t seem to matter unless it is county fair size type pools.  But doesn\'t that assume that the pools are open to everyone.  Is it possible that the late p5 NYRA $255k pool of a segmented group of horseplayers versus a Del Mar $925k pool of horseplayers everywhere would make for less \"Sharp\" money in yesterday\'s late p5 at Saratoga?

Uh oh,....unpopular opinion coming since many NY-ers on the board but maybe the NYRA bets crowd as a whole (none of the guys I know here of course) are really not that great at playing the pick 5?  Or more likely here, the on track money played at Sarartoga on a Saturday by anyone there into the p5 (not just online NYRA bets money) was less \"sharp.\"

[Mathcapper]

Hmm, I was referring to the fact that really small pools (ie. < $10K) are sometimes less efficient (meaning that they might not correlate well with the win pool odds), but yeah, I suppose it\'s possible that say, if the computer guys aren\'t able to bet into the NYRA Bets Pick 5, then the Pick 5 pool might not be as sharp a reflection of each horse\'s win probabilities as the win pool and could subsequently produce some more generous payoffs vis-à-vis the win parlays.

Case in point: Today\'s late Pick 5 paid $3,904, which was 3 times the win parlay of $1,282 vs. an expected payout of around twice the parlay, or $2,605 after adjusting for the takeout.

As I mentioned in another post, the \"sharp\" money (computer guys?) pounded Monomoy Girl down to 1/2 from just over even money in the last flash of the CCA Oaks today with $170K worth of win action, putting her right in line with her estimated \"fair value\" based on the Will Pays.

But say similar money wasn\'t bet in the Pick 5 and that MG was actually closer in the Pick 5 to the even money odds she was at when they loaded in the gate? That puts the parlay at around $1,795 and makes the $3,904 payout fall right in line with expectations at around twice the parlay.

Could be just a coincidence and maybe such a phenomenon isn\'t happening at all, but can\'t dismiss the possibility..

[FrankD.]

Rocky,

We have brushed on this conversation briefly in the backyard(by the way UB woke up from a nap on Saturday saying where’s Rocky and called you...) as to the Bots involvement in pick 4’s & 5’s. If they are playing them at all their advantage is negated by having to rely on their pre race & double will pay & probables data on the first 2 legs only. They definitely play the pick 3’s and have effected their payouts. They definitely can pluck out info as to live tickets etc....

In 2016 a former poster here & a journalist obtained betting printouts & percentages from NYRA (not easily or willingly) their findings did not have them dipping into the 4’s & 5’s. As you would surmise they were predominantly vertical per their biggest edge. I’m sure with their direct access to the pools a lack of a NYRA Bets account would not prevent their involvement......

Fairmount’s complaint/theory comes from he and many of his mid west friends that cannot play it. Bordering New Jersey residents could not open NYRA accounts, not sure if that is still the case? One I know used a family members address in NY to get in. I understand the frustration of a lot players throughout the country have, they cannot participate in a pick 5 on Belmont Stakes or Travers days.

I would be hard pressed to believe that any serious daily horse players, (REMEMBER THEM) haven’t found access through some channel to participate.
I completely understand NYRA’s marketing to build their own ADW into a national presence. Unfortunately via archaic and ridiculous laws in several states many are not able to jump into this pool.

A perfect example of this is Capital OTB in upstate NY is stil bound to a harness industry agreement from the dark ages. There are certain weekday evenings where you cannot bet Thoroughbreds after 7:30 PM. Yeah you can’t make this stuff up, no Delmar late double but you can play into Batavia’s 3k pools.....

[Mathcapper]

Too bad I missed the opening weekend backyard banter -- couldn\'t make it on Sat and the anticipated rains (that never came) kept me at Living Room Downs on Sun (along with some great final round British Open action).

Not sure what that 2016 poster was looking at, but the computer guys absolutely can and very likely do play the horizontal superexotics, and heavily. In fact, they LOVE these bets because they offer some of the highest advantage wagering opportunities, as I posted about a couple of years ago, straight from the horse\'s mouth (pun intended):

Computer-Robotic Wagering

And I agree -- if there\'s a will there\'s a way for them to get into that NYRA Bets Late Pick 5 pool too.

That Capital OTB anecdote is freakin\' hilarious -- what do they still have Ray Walston calling the races from a wire room teletype feed?