The Whitney

[Upper Nile]

Since recent posts have been discussing and comparing \"traditional\" handicapping factors such as class and pace as compared to TG figs this race may be useful in continuing the discussion.  Handicappers over-considering pace as a major factor will likely settle on Perfect Drift and Bowman\'s Band while underestimating or dismissing the likes of Peace Rules, Roses In May, Gygistar, YesSir and Seattle Fitz. One caveat with this kind of analysis is how frequently races end up being run differently than expected, from a pace perspective.  Handicappers over-considering the class factor will likely upgrade the Grade 1 winners and downgrade the others.  These two traditional handicapping factors may lead to at least a few over bet underlays such as: Perfect Drift, Peace Rules and Seattle Fitz.
I\'m hoping traditional handicapping will lead to a few overlays-one of which is my selection based on TG figures including the new figure based patterns-ROSES IN MAY.

Roses In May is just getting started.  He came out running last year with a real nice pattern of incremental development getting down to his top of a 3, which was run on this track at this distance. Class and pace handicappers wiil look at that race and may dismiss the good effort because Roses In May was loose on the lead and it was in an entry level alw.  
Don\'t know what happened in the Dwyer but now we come to this years pattern.  Although not yet proven in graded stakes he sure ran a figure that would be competitive in graded stakes first out. Roses In May then regressed only a couple of points off the big effort first time back.  Graded stakes quality runners who only regress slightly off big top\'s is an indication to me that Roses In May will be able to continue to develop.  That\'s just what happened last out and tomorrow I\'m expecting at least a pair-up with another forward move very possible as shown by the figure based pattern.  At the weights and the price I\'ll enjoy watching Roses In May saving ground and stealing this one on the lead.
As Harvet Pack says \"May The Horse Be with you\".
Phil

[Upper Nile]

Did anyone read my post from LAST FRIDAY??  I thought it would have started a real goode discussion by now.
Phil

[miff]

Nice Pick, but did you really think he would outrun Yessirgeneralsir to the lead.Every pace figure I saw for the race made him too slow early to outrun that field.What pace figs did you use?Thanks.

[JJP]

Yes you were right about Roses in May but those other horses ran (or at least finished) poorly.  And the \"traditional\" Perfect Drift finishes out the exacta.  I thought PD was lugging in a little in the stretch.  I think if Day goes to a LH whip he may have gotten the better of Roses.

[Upper Nile]

miff, I used only TG data-no pace figs.  Roses wired the rest of the field with Yessir being too slo on TG figs to be a factor. Although he did hang in there for longer than I expected. You don\'t have to be in front battling with a non-contender 46-1 shot to wire a field.

JJP, PD had his shot and got to the lead but I believe Roses battled back instead of PD hanging.  Most folks will say PD hung which will hopefully lead to many yet again underrating Roses next out.  Roses has now proven again just how much of a fighter he is. More of a factor in the win I believe was the weights and the ground saving trip.  Perfect Drift will likely get a better TG fig that Roses because of the weight and the wider trip-we\'ll see.
Phil