I Will Be the First

[TheBull]

Nothing you can do after a day of short fields and favorites but turn the page and look ahead, so with that in mind......It would appear on the surface that there may have been a regression from Justify in Baltimore yesterday. Seeing how he came out of the last sloppy track race with questions of lameness and skin irritations, I wonder how he comes out of the Preakness.

What kind of Belmont are we going to see in 3 weeks, a Big Brown/War Emblem style flop? A Smarty/Chrome type effort but coming up short? Or a dominant Pharoah-esque romp into the history books? Early thoughts?

[JR]

I don’t think Justify will stay the distance. He got a big boost from the off tracks in the first two legs. He’s had a busy schedule. And he seems to be tailing off. Plenty of fresh legs running at him in three weeks. Solid bet against.

[BitPlayer]

Audible would seem to be the logical contender from Pletcher, but he has owners in common with Justify.  It will be interesting to see if he is entered.

[Focus959]

Since 2000: Last race prior to Belmont:

18 Belmonts:

9 from Derby (50%)
3 from Preakness (Point Given, Afleet Alex, AP)
2 from Peter Pan
4 from other races

Derby is the last best prep for the Belmont.

[jp702006]

I’ll be all in on Hofburg. I see a nice trip 4 or 5 lengths off the pace. Hopefully he’ll leave the gate at 6-1 or better.

[mistermoose]

To me Audible would be a likely contender. I don’t love his pedigree for 12f, but

he has steadily developed down to a 0, and has yet to move
backward. With pletcher at the helm and the tractability u like
to see in the Belmont I have to give him a huge shot if they choose to
run him. Either way I will be betting against justify if he makes it to
the race.

[rezlegal]

I am currently agnostic re Justify in Belmont but his breeding will not be the issue. FWIW the odds are +260 for a Justify Triple  Crown AND a Golden Knights Stanley Cup!

[sekrah_]

Hofburg and Tenfold.  The two most Belmont looking horses I\'ve seen in years.

Both move like they can click 25 seconds off for days.

[johnnym]

AP odds in the Belmont were 3-4
Been reading a lot of comments here and other places of how Justify is a bet against in the Belmont.
My question is say he goes of at 7/5 or 3/2
That tells me that Audible,Vino,Hofburg will probably all be under 10-1 Maybe even under 5-1.
Based on last weeks discussion regarding picking a winner vs making the right wager. What would be the right wager here?
If this is to much of a fictional question sorry it’s my fourth day of rain in south Fl,I’ve run out of indoor things to do.
John

[skitimber]

Starting in 2001, 25 second quarters (2:30 finish) would have won only 5 Belmont Stakes and lost 12 times!  The winner is likely somewhere between 24 second quarters (Secretariat) and that 2:30.

[ajkreider]

I agree, and I would put Blended Citizen in there as well.  Bit of a plodder in his dirt races, but the slow Belmont pace sets up well for him.  And we know he can get over the track ok.

[big18741]

Hofburg and Vino Rosso check most of the boxes for me.

[boardedup]

He Seemed like a tired horse the last furlong, it took a lot for him to put away Good Magic after setting pedestrian fractions. 1st-5th were separated by less than 3 lengths on the wire, and the 5th place finisher (Lone Sailor) made up double digit lengths in a hurry.  The place and show horses were both moving much better late and it wasn\'t like they were coming from the clouds.    

It\'s nice to have a HOF Jockey up, he got just enough out of the horse and won the race.  Again give him his do though, he was under pressure the entire race, easily the toughest test of his career in my opinion, and he got the job done.  For this week, that\'s all that really matters.  But I think the question isn\'t if he\'s a play against to win in three weeks, it\'s is he a complete toss and not useable at all?

If I\'m answering the original question today, I see a Big Brown Belmont performance looming. The only difference is Justify will make it into the stretch before he\'s pulled up.

[Tavasco]

What\'s hard to believe is that HOF rider Mike Smith said (paraphrased) he knew he had the race won and just eased Justify up.

Further, he said Justify is so competitive that he would have rebroke and run away from the second and third place horses if he had either let him or asked him.

As hard as that is to believe I have no reason to disbelieve BIG Money.

[boardedup]

I mean, in the \"gallop out\" (which admittedly I usually don\'t give much credence to)  Bravazo went by him like he was standing still and Tenfold passed him as well?  But MS didn\'t go to the whip late, and he did hit the wire exactly when he needed to, there\'s no denying that.

BB had plenty of glowing words this morning as well.  He compared Justify\'s Preakness to AP\'s derby, saying it was a \"tough race for him\" but that he felt he would excel next out in the Belmont. That it would set him up for a huge effort next out.  

Good Magic ran another super solid race and gave Justify a fight the entire way around the track before ultimately giving way, but doing so on the rail where many have said wasn\'t where you wanted to be late yesterday.  That\'s the first time he\'s been under that kind of sustained pressure.  It\'s also the first time he hit the wire with company, and he almost certainly went backwards a point or so (more?).  I agree, I have no reason to not believe or question what MS & BB say, but man...

Coming back for a 3rd race in 6 weeks after slugging it out like that on the deepest and heaviest of tracks, going the 1.5, further than any horse wants to go, and then when you consider some of the quality that\'s waiting for him, and they\'ll be fresh, I personally just don\'t see it.

Baffert had another kind of cryptic quote today where he just through out unprovoked that \"he\'s seen a lot of good horses never win again after going 1.5.\"  It seemed kind of ominous even though he went on to praise his horse\'s ability and show total confidence in him getting the distance? (Though he originally thought he\'d top out at 7F??)

But hey, what\'s better than lining up and firing your best shot against a short priced favorite going for the triple crown on Belmont day...as good as it gets!  Here\'s to it!