I Will Be the First

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> And by the way, that is setting up as a wildly
> interesting race, and a great card.

You gonna do a seminar similar to Derby Day??

[TGJB]

Highly likely. NYRA works with us to get us probables in advance, which makes all the difference. So does Churchill.

[Molesap]

What kind of pull do you have with the weather gods? Just saying a dry track would be nice for a change...

[T Severini]

mjellish Wrote:
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> What i was told was that Justify rebroke when saw
> Bravazzo at the wire.  
>

Why would one let someone else \"inform\" them of what happened at /past the wire? Isn\'t it there for anyone to see for themselves?


Waiting to see the figs for the Preakness, but what about that previous Preakness? On its face, are you implying those two efforts are equivalent?

2015 Preakness

[mjellish]

I dont have clown vision to see through fog.  And i wasnt there.

And No.  I’m saying Justify’s was better.

[T Severini]

Apparently, whoever informed you that Justify \"rebroke\" has that Fog Clown Vision however!

I\'ll wait for the TFigs before commenting further upon the comparison with American Pharaoh.


Interesting race though, lots of meat on that bone.

[Furious Pete]

https://twitter.com/horseracing4beg/status/999344398042202113

[Flighted Iron]

My guess is both won\'t be more than a 1/4 point difference. So much is made from horses going eyeball to eyeball. Until i see something(plenty of data)or someone can read a horse\'s mind it\'s a bit leaky especially when horse A wins on the front/stalking and deep closes ala El Gato.

[Marlin]

I have seen way to many comments over the years about what happened after the finish line in a race.  To me, it has never made much sense, nor made an difference in the next race.  I also, don\'t regard trainers saying \"He wasn\'t even breathing hard\" after the race, same issue, doesn\'t mean a thing next time out. IMO.

[statuette]

my favorite is  \" he left some in the tank \"

[T Severini]

Thanx Pete,

Hadn\'t seen that angle, and from it does look like Justify is \"going on\" with the best energy. Other angles indicate a bit differently.


Would point out the \"outrider pony\" was waiting for the winner to take them to the Trophy Circle and Smith let Justify gallop on to the pony, while the other horses were definitely in full pull up mode right after the wire, likely wanting to get off that surface as soon as possible. The Awesome Again, was also pulling up and out which magnified the optics.

The track turn came quickly up as well and Justify covered less ground while the others were pulling up.


For some, energy after the wire can be a variable. There\'s a couple Derby horses pointing  for the Belmont in that regard. Agree with other posters though that \"Rebreaks\" do not occur after the wire, especially when one can tell horses are shutting down.

[T Severini]

First, you gotta give Justify his due. This time, a full circuit horse in Good Magic went with him and put full race pressure on him. He didn\'t wear Good Magic down til the very end and that may have left him vulnerable, but he still pulled it off.

There were however, a handful of horses there with him. Justify will make his own luck and he did. Looking forward to seeing if Tgraph biased the track at all.


The Awesome Again ran a helluva race. Really loved his race on that crap. The other horse that you have to acknowledge is Lone Sailor. One day, maybe against lesser, he\'s gonna catch a break.


Good Magic earns a little rest. He\'s a good horse too.


Don\'t know what Lukas, Mott and Instilled Regard\'s trainers are thinking, but you\'d think its time to throw a couple rabbits at him just to cinch the deal.

boardedup Wrote:
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> I certainly don\'t claim to be an expert in reading
> a horse\'s mannerisms or body language and will
> gladly defer to you or anyone else on here when it
> comes to that.  And according to all reports he
> looked good the next morning, that said,  two
> horses who weren\'t considered to be in the same
> league as him two weeks prior made up substantial
> beaten lengths to the point that Bravazo was only
> beaten 1/2 a length.
>
> Yes it\'s a different race, different conditions,
> and \"performance isn\'t a constant\" but as dominate
> as his derby win was, in my opinion this was
> anything but.  They went out pretty slow, and
> again, he hit the tape w/ horses who weren\'t even
> an after thought two weeks prior.  He was under
> pressure the whole way around the track Saturday
> for the first time ever.
>
>  He wasn\'t dominate which is ok, but I find it
> hard to believe that was by design.  A win is a
> win is a win no doubt, but it\'s hard for me to
> believe that MS was so confident he geared him
> down to the point of just holding on like that.
>
> He\'s great, but off that effort for me he\'s a
> clear bet against.

[FrankD.]

Chuckles,

I look forward to your yearly TC season visits. I often wonder when you will run out of material? This year we add clown vision & the Easter Bunny......

Please continue to self medicate. In another year, two at the most you will make
the characters of Randle Patrick McMurphy & the Chief  look like a high school production.

Keep on Keepin On......

[T Severini]

Bettabecareful with Clownvision, truth be told anyone looking at the races here is clearly a figure purist. When the numbers are close, sometimes one looks to separate them in other ways.

In this case we have equivalently scored Preaknesses in 2015 and 2018. The same horse! This year, we have a third place horse that ran the fastest number.
Which brings everyone to the Belmont!

Lagniappe!...It\'s a term a great Cajun Chef used. His name was Paul Prudomme. If you like slightly spicy food, he was the man. But what it means is a little something extra. A bonus in a way.

Preakness trips. One can\'t have watched those last few races and not noticed the jocks were avoiding the rail. Earlier in the card theres little doubt they were  using the rail. But by races 12 and 13, one would have to be blind to not see they were avoiding it like the plague. There was a lull in the rain before the fog settled in, precisely when probably isn\'t relevant but by those latter races it certainly appears to have changed.


Further evidence?  Look at Quip out of the gate from the 1 hole. Was that horse urged and going nowhere? Sure looked like the rail was not the place to be late. Not sure what kind of vision that is, but judge for yourself.


 FrankD. Wrote:
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> Chuckles,
>
> I look forward to your yearly TC season visits. I
> often wonder when you will run out of material?
> This year we add clown vision & the Easter
> Bunny......
>
> Please continue to self medicate. In another year,
> two at the most you will make
> the characters of Randle Patrick McMurphy & the
> Chief  look like a high school production.
>
> Keep on Keepin On......

[Tavasco]

I appreciate you clearing up some of the fine points and questions of the last month. Thanks, even though I may not fully comprehend all yet. So consider, if you would, explaining the logic of M. Ruis saying he will send Bolt D\'Oro to the Met Mile?

I\'m assuming as the trainer of only one of two horses who actually put a move on Justify i.e. tried to pass him, MR concluded than running against Justify was a hopeless endeavor so he\'d rather try the fastest dirt milers alive?