Justify

[Tavasco]

Many like Justify because he is trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert\'s record in the Kentucky Derby is, I suppose, second to none. But for regular players such as those who frequent this site. The horse is most important.

I have watched one of his recent workouts and was left with a couple impression and several thoughts. Which I\'m compelled to share before his next work which will probably create headlines.

Link To Workout Video

First impression is that he seems very much an immature colt. Second impression is that he is supremely athletic. Thirdly, he appears to have a tremendous stride not unlike a top turf horse.

Baffert works him slow for some reason. I suspect to protect him. Why did he not start as a 2 y/o? His long stride could make KD trip problematic. If he gets a clean trip it is not hard to imagine everyone else running for second. Rather third behind a Calif/Euro exacta in a historic race.

Further, I can imagine him running off (in one scenario) and secondly making a stretch run for the ages, if he gets a troubled trip. Certainly it is possible he flops. Yet if he lays over this group as he might, is 5/2 such a terrible proposition.  Those who don\'t think he lays over the others, may not be familiar with the horse.

As expected the chatter is about how many in the field could win. My thought still is how many can win without going forward. That is, how many are already fast enough, if they run their race on May Day.

Then again there was Nyquist go figure.

[johnnym]

Ok I’ll bite.
What makes you think he is a immature colt?
Baffert had Arrogate and West Coast and did not push either one to the Derby.
Why would he push Justify?
John

[Tavasco]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ok I’ll bite.
> What makes you think he is a immature colt?
> Baffert had Arrogate and West Coast and did not
> push either one to the Derby.
> Why would he push Justify?
> John

Well just a subjective visual impression to go along with how I heard Baffert describe him.

Yes BB has been very patient in getting some of his trainees to the races. Not so patient keeping them in training once they prove not to be dominant.

Sorry about my Nyquist point I don\'t even remember what I was thinking except 5/2 favorite that I didn\'t like.

[mjellish]

Justify does not lay over this field on Thorograph, and he does not look athletic on that workout video.  He looks like a big, long-striding colt.  That\'s not what people mean when they call a horse athletic.  

Audible is a good example of an athletic colt - quick turn of foot, able to move in and out and/or make multiple moves.  

Not saying one is better than the other, or that they aren\'t both athletes.  The terms are just different.

[Dana666]

Your points are all valid. And in a parallel universe, Chad brown would train him and he\'d be a turf champion. The way he moves is like poetry, and his stride is tremendous. His immaturity is just evident in his races; he\'s still learning what to do. He hasn\'t been tested in derby type scenario either, so you don\'t really know if he passes the test until afterwards. There are so many legit runners in this derby, however, who can blame anyone for shopping for better value? More than any other year, post position and race flow will be crucial because there are so many horses of similar ability and running style. All the main contenders have the same running style. Something\'s gotta give, you know?

[TGJB]

We\'re working on a poetry in motion designation for his sheet.

[TempletonPeck]

I won\'t be betting him to win. Were I in England, staring down 9/2, might I feel differently? Thankfully, I do not have to stare long into that particular abyss!

4th race (of 4, lifetime) in 11 weeks. A 3rd \"op-\" notation could result in Money/Wide Mike (depends on the result, of course!) facing the choice to use some, or to try something he hasn\'t tried before.

I am treating his line as Top-Pair-Top, given the muck and the \"h?\" in his second effort.

But, he sure does pass the eye test. 9 days still? I could change my mind 10 more times, easy.

[mjellish]

JB, you’re a man of few words.  I’ve been trying to say more or less exactly that.  About sums it up.  If Justify turns out to be all that then fine.  But he hasnt shown how he lays over this field and i’m tired of hearing people talk about him that way.

[Dana666]

The best poetry is an accurate figure

[RICH]

he\'s also part of the storm cat line 0-51 in the derby

[johnnym]

He has a boat load of history against him that’s for sure.
You think he knows that?

[Tavasco]

LOL - I doubt it or Audible for that matter.

[Ace]

I like the Curlin offspring in the Derby this year. He is one of my favorite horses ever. I also loved Hard Spun, so the one that has each on both sides of his pedigree is my favorite. Need to see the post position draw...

Are there any with Afleet Alex in the bloodlines? That\'s another one of my favs.

[Tavasco]

Hey Face Man,

Always good to hear your thoughts. Sad to say I like your 12/1 on Mendelssohn better than my 25/1 on Magnum Moon.

Earlier I posted if someone/anyone thinks Justify lays over the derby field and that person certainly is not me, yet. That someone may have considered the following facts.


2017 - Battle of Midway a 5 or 6 point SoCal horse becomes a TG 1 @ CD

2016 - Nyquist a 2² - 3 point performer becomes a TG -0² @ CD

2015 - American Pharaoh continues improving up 2 pts @ CD
     - Firing Line moves up 2² at CD

2014 - Supposed Underlay California Chrome didn\'t have to improve to waltz home a winner.

2013 - Goldencents regressed badly

2012 - I\'ll Have Another TG 1\'s & Bodemeister\'s TG 3 somehow blitz well regarded TG 2\'s and 3\'s of Union Rags, Alpha, El Padrino, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy.

2011 - Midnight Interlude - Baffert
     - Comma To The Top - Miller
     - Ran more like pretenders than contenders.

2010 - Looking At Lucky (moves 3 pts. back toward top) demonstrates the importance of the trip in a field with several closely matched rivals. Super Saver improves from TG 2 to TG 1 saves ground and gets the roses.

2009 - Pioneer of The Nile a Socal 3-4 becomes a CD TG 0 which surprisingly isn\'t good enough.

Not many want to bet the favorite but lately those that get the money @ CD come from west of Barstow and move up 2-3 points.  We have a couple who could fit that criteria this year. Just a recent trend and of course may or may not continue in 2018,