Reading Too Much Into Things?

[Molesap]

As I sit here listening to Mike Welsch explain that Baffert is not planning on bringing his horses to Kentucky until fairly late so they will not have a work over the track (for the first time he can remember), I thought it was odd for Baffert to do that. Arguably one of the better (best?) Derby trainers in recent history, he wants to change up what seems to be a successful pattern. I guess my question is why? I know all horses are individuals and he knows so much more about training them than I do, but it seems odd to adjust his normal pattern, especially given his past success. Is he hiding something? Protecting something? Worried about the weather (long term forecasts are for some rain for most days, but outside today, most chances are relatively small although trying to predict weather an hour out in Kentucky is sometimes hard, let alone 10 days)? Doing what is best for his charges? Or am I reading just too much into it?

While on the subject, what about JJ hopping off Bolt d’Oro in order to ride Audible? Is it as simple as loyalty like he said? Or is it something else? I cannot imagine a jockey jumping off what they thought was a live Derby mount, unless they thought it was to ride another even “liver” mount (that is live-er mount, not liver mount as in the organ - . He ran second on the track to two of the top Derby prospects in many people\'s minds, so was it something else? Ruis seems like potentially a really tough person to work for and he did fire his own daughter (or whatever the story was - I just know she has not officially trained a horse since and that was after she won a G1 stakes at Del Mar), so was it just not worth the hassle? Again, am I reading too much into that as well?

[mjellish]

I was mentioning the Baffert not working these colts at Churchill thing to someone last week.  My take on it is that Justify has never shipped to race before and doesn\'t have much experience.  So Baffert wants to keep him at SA and ship him in right on top of the race rather than shipping early and risk potentially putting extra stress on the horse.  Since he\'s keeping Justify at SA, he may as well keep Solomini there too.

For the record, this is pure conjecture on my part.  But in any case, it\'s different than his usual MO.  I think it speaks to the inexperience of Justify.
 No one knows how he is going to handle the ship, the new surface, the crowd, the 20 horse derby field.  Also, In two of his 3 races he didn\'t break real sharply.  If he doesn\'t break well in the Derby he could find himself stuck behind horses taking dirt, which is another situation he has never been in, or be hard used early to establish position heading into the first turn.  He doesn\'t handle the turns well either, and the turns are even sharper at Churchill.  

Big, long striding colt with a lot of hype around him who hasn\'t run numbers that exactly lay over this filed, and he will probably need a clear, outside stalking trip to run his best race IMO.  

Certainly no value at 5/2 odds or so with all of the unknowns.

[jmg5220]

Might be Belmont day all over.  Ship in and win every race.

[johnnym]

Aren’t all Cali horse’s shipping in late?
Speaking of breaking slow Bolt is the one that seems to have a habit of breaking slow.
As far as your concerns Molesap good luck with all the White Noise it’s defining.

[TreadHead]

Do not discount the impact weather played on this decision.  The next 2 weeks call for lots of rain and stormy conditions and could cause major impacts on work schedules for horses based there.

[mjellish]

Unm.  The warther in KY is always more iffy than So Cal every year.  I dont buy it.

[trackjohn]

Any comments on the quarantine requirements in Churchill and this decision??

[mjellish]

What requirements are you referring to?

[hooper]

Derby horses are required to be stabled at Churchill by 11:00am next Tuesday.
There is a quarantine facility on site for European shippers.
Will Churchill make public if they did any out of competition testing?

[ajkreider]

With regard to JJ jumping off, I think it comes down to this:

He knows for a fact that Bolt has no shot against Justify.  He doesn\'t know that about Audible.  Doesn\'t mean that Audible is more \"live\" a mount than Bolt, or that Bolt won\'t finish in front of Audible.  At this stage of his career, he just wants a Derby win and he knows Bolt won\'t get him that.

[Dana666]

I personally wouldn\'t spend two seconds second guessing Baffert. He\'s just too good, and shipping horses all over the country and the world is really one of his greatest talents. If you want to play against Justify, the price is the biggest negative amid his relative lack of seasoning. Looking at Justify from a raw, physical standpoint, I wouldn\'t be one bit surprised if he won the Triple Crown. He\'s simply a freak of nature, downright scary. As far as Bolt D\'Oro, my thought is he doesn\'t have much chance. He\'s peaked in my estimation; he had matured early enough to get the jump on his rivals and that advantage in maturity no longer exists. I feel like Ruis has been trying to rush him back into some sort of forward move, and I don\'t think it\'s happening. Just a guess of course. The Irish horse intrigues me the most. When you study how the horses he beat, esp. in the Breeder\'s Cup last year, have fared, it\'s truly incredible. That race was like the greatest key race in BC history. The hurdles he has to overcome are formidable though. Will the price justify the intangibles? I don\'t know. Obviously, this is the best shot a foreign horse (well, really a foreign Keeneland grad) will ever have to win the Derby. Gronkowski is a joke, but Men. is something very, very special. This is one of the deepest derbies I can ever remember. And really I think just about any one of Pletcher\'s runners can win--when is the last time a trainer won 6 derby prep races with four different horses??? How about never. Pletcher never ceases to amaze me. This is one where you really need to do all the little things a great handicapper/gambler does to make a good score--look at the numbers, post positions, race scenarios and, of course, the odds and make smart plays. I think there is much value here for the person willing to put all the puzzle pieces together.

[toppled]

Mendelssohn\'s key race wasn\'t even the best 2YO key race from last year.  The best key race was Enticed\'s KYJC which, including Enticed\'s Gotham produced 7 subsequent stakes winners, and 2 others who ran 2nd in stakes.

Add to the fact that this was at Churchill Downs, making Enticed the only stakes winner in the Derby to win a stakes race at CD and I\'m going to be sure Enticed will be on all my Derby tickets. Whether he can beat Justify, Mendelssohn & Audible remains to be seen, but he is by far the best value in this race at 20-25/1.

[big18741]

Enticed wants an outside trip in the clear to do his best running.

It\'s something to consider if you\'re keying him.

[mjellish]

Dana, what specifically about Justify\'s physical appearance makes him \"look\" like a freak of nature and a triple crown winner?  To me he looks like a big, red colt with a very strong backend.  But that\'s about all I can say.  Maybe I don\'t know what a triple crown winner \"looks\" like.

I\'m not second guessing Baffert.  I am merely pointing out that what he is doing with Justify is different than what he has done with every other KY Derby runner he\'s had that I can remember.  

A lot of these trainers are creatures of habit.  I pay attention when they do something different.  There usually is a reason.

[JR]

The late shipping and quarantine aspect could factor. Don’t know what kind of shipper Justify is but the experience will be new and they’re all animals. He might handle it. He might not. Old adage is never bet a horse to do something he hasn’t already done. Baffert or no Baffert, 3-1 or less on a guess that this guy likes flying and a change of scenery isn’t where my money will be.