ROW & Stakes Pick 4

[FrankD.]

I could not agree with the ROW selection of Noble Indy as the most likely winner anymore. Troubled trip in last, blinks on, should sit a perfect trip, some Bravazo buzz & hope that the Desormeaux clan shows up with bushel baskets full to bet on Jack!

The Risen Star was reminiscent of jugheads on a half mile oval. There wasn’t much running going on..... Bravazo who was 21/1 will be 3/1 today. Look at Lone Sailor and he in the Breeders Futurity & KYJC. LS was a shorter price in both beat him once and had a pair of mishaps to get beat 2 1/2 in the other race. One will be 20/1 the other 3/1, the trainer of the 20/1 is 30% win, 59% in the triple for the meet.

Noble Indy/ Lone  Sailor exacta with a small reverse.
Triples & Supers NI on top  with LS in the 2,3,4 slots with Bravazo, Hyndford, Snapper Sinclair & Jack. LS on top of NI over the rest for a small saver.

Pick 4:

NO Handicap:
A single with The Player from the fence. Calvin ain’t what he used to be BUT give him the BORAIL, with a pace advantage in a 6 horse field and I’ll stand alone.
The way Rosario has been riding Good Samartin May be coming from Shreveport.

Muniz Memorial:
Against Synchrony big time, I’ve listened to TGJB for too many Spa seminars preaching that unsound horses run well fresh and not back to back. Big effort off the ouchie bench.
Lucullan missed by a neck to Yoshida in the Hill Prince, came out running and looks to be heading in the correct direction at a square price.
Mr. Misunderstood lost a turf sprints worth of ground in his last pair & for some reason Cox’s horses don’t bounce?
Forge has 3 races that win this one by open lengths.

FG Oaks:
Hard to get past the logical ones Classy Act & Wonder Gadot, JJ on the rail makes me press Classy.

Louisiana Derby:
Noble Indy is almost a single, small save with Lone  Sailor.

Good Luck,

Frank D.

[Sandreadis]

Pletcher\'s

https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-pletcher/hyndford-outside-and-noble-indy-worked-5-furlongs-at-palm-beach-downs-on-march-17th-2018/

[Tavasco]

Take Charge Indy, The Sire of Noble Indy, performance record was not that of a bettors favorite except for his 7/1 Florida Derby win.

1. Both (father & son) won at first asking. Although Take Charge Indy started his career in July of his two year old campaign. Noble indy was unveiled in early December at the end of his freshman year.

2. Take Charge Indy became somewhat of a celebrity upon winning the Florida Derby.while dispatching Union Rags, El Padrino and Fort Loudon to name a few. The  win elevated TCI\'s stature as a Derby contender where he subsequently went off as the 4th choice or thereabouts. Noble Indy became a TG GP steam horse after winning his first two races with good TG #\'s. So is this colt headed for championships or one asked for too much too early.

3. Take Charge Indy came back after his poor KD to finish off his 3 y/o year well and follow it up with a good 4 y/o spring. BUT he diddn\'t win, he ran against top older stakes horses but only captured minor awards. Now after good TG #\'s and a troubled trip in the Risen Star I should think this son Noble Indy is going to exceed The sires accomplishments.

4. Tonite my perspective is that Noble Indy is an underlay at the m/l odds. He\'s the second choice behind a last out stakes winner. So the ROTW logic is to bet aginst the fast horse and on the trouble horse. AKA draw a line through his last it wasn\'t representative. The ROTW is most interesting to me because of its quest for value. To select a horse because it seems the most likely winner is something else again except for horizontal players in which case AOK.

In summary, Since I prefer betting exactas and trifectas I look at economic opportunities differently. Where the horizontal player takes a stand and singles Noble Indy my strategy is to leave that one off my tickets. The fact that TAP is the trainer is a huge consideration. Which is to say singling the TAP entry in a TC prep can\'t be a bad idea anymore than trying to beat a crowd favorite with form.

However - how many times do you remember TAP turning a horse around. If anything he\'s linear good gets better bad get sold off. Not remembering too many up and down performers. (I suppose there are some)

Good luck Frank, after thinking this race through I don\'t have a strong opinion and now expect to observe.

[mjellish]

I would have to agree that Indy would seem like the play here on paper.  But he seems like a bit of a head case to me.  He acted up before his races and been a bit rank early on during them, including in the Risen Star.  Pletcher is trying to get Indy to focus by putting the blinkers on him.  But he had the blinkers on in this work and still didn\'t focus.  Notice he doesn\'t switch leads correctly until halfway down the stretch, and when he finally does it\'s not exactly smooth.  Although he beats Hyndford by a long way in this work he doesn\'t come home especially fast, so to my eye Hyndford looks bad more than Indy looks good.  Adding blinkers seems more like a \"what the hell lets try adding blinkers\" move than anything else.  IMO that\'s usually not a good thing. Plus they are going 1 1/8 now, and its also my opinion that when you start adding distance it exasperates problems like not switching leads, losing focus, being rank and not listening to jock.      

I\'m not saying Indy can\'t win.  But it\'s pretty tough to single this colt in the horizontals knowing hes got to overcome all of that, go farther than he ever has, and that he\'s acted up in the warm up/behind the gate and been rank in at least two of his 3 prior races.  I suppose you can bet your money an hour and half in advance and \"hope\" that doesn\'t happen again.  Or you can wait and play the late Pick 4.

[boardedup]

TAP 1/18 when adding blinkers in this kind of spot with somewhere around a $.55 ROI in last 19.  I agree with the thought that TAP doesn\'t do a lot to \"turn them around.\"

I\'ll use him, but will be playing tickets without him as well.  I like the value Lone Sailor \"should\" offer this evening and will funnel the majority of my money that way.

[shanahan]

boardedup Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TAP 1/18 when adding blinkers in this kind of spot
> with somewhere around a $.55 ROI in last 19.  I
> agree with the thought that TAP doesn\'t do a lot
> to \"turn them around.\"
>
> I\'ll use him, but will be playing tickets without
> him as well.  I like the value Lone Sailor
> \"should\" offer this evening and will funnel the
> majority of my money that way.

OK, heading over to OAK - not quite warm enough to boat - but I see Noble with a bad pattern, poor TAP adding blinks/shipping...Bravazo is my choice and for me a key horse will be dark Templar who has had trouble in 3 races, is bred well, and a TR with a nice 90 day move upward.  Win?  HOpe so, but keying up/down with 1/2/6/7/8/9.

[big18741]

Too much chalk in this pk 4.

Need something longer in the 3rd leg like #3 America\'s Tale who has a couple of competitive back #\'s before collapsing in her last or the #9 Chocolate Martini Amoss who needs another move forward.

Have the three favorites but who needs them?

[P-Dub]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Too much chalk in this pk 4.
>
> Need something longer in the 3rd leg like #3
> America\'s Tale who has a couple of competitive
> back #\'s before collapsing in her last or the #9
> Chocolate Martini Amoss who needs another move
> forward.
>
> Have the three favorites but who needs them?


Chocolate Martini nice call 13/1

[big18741]

Chalked out with the horse that\'s supposed to bounce- MBJ.

Also saved with the Pletcher chalk in the Pk\'s.

Couldn\'t get there with Lone Sailor.

[wrongly1]

Frank

Hope you had the exacta!  Good capping on the La Derby.  T.

[Tavasco]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Noble Indy/ Lone  Sailor exacta with a small
> reverse.
> Triples & Supers NI on top  with LS in the 2,3,4
> slots with Bravazo, Hyndford, Snapper Sinclair &
> Jack. LS on top of NI over the rest for a small
> saver.
 
> Frank D.


Beautiful,

Might make you want to come back, maybe next week!

[Tavasco]

Oh,

The ride by Kent D. is worth a replay. The concept of lost ground is wasted on him. That TG # must be an eye popper. But he did get into the Tri which had to please many.

Dallas Stewart the king of longshots pumping up tri\'s and supers.

Basketball to unwind now.

[mjellish]

Nice hit on the Exacta Frank!  And a good call by the ROW.

Sort of a strangely run race IMO.  The splits as they were posted were 22.97, 46.61, 111.47, 133.61 and 150.28.  That\'s 1/4 miles times of 22.97, 23.64, 24.86, 22.14 and a final 1/8th of 16.67.  22.14?

Contrast that with the NO Handicap run earlier in 23.88, 48.18, 111.85, 137.27 and 149.87.

So if those times are correct, it would appear that Noble Indy ran a hell of race to still be there in the end.  He looked dead at the top of the stretch, and probably should have been if those splits are right.  Also, to my eye, I swore I saw Bravazzo take a bad step or two - something bad anyway - midway on the 2nd turn and the Jock had to struggle for a bit just to get him righted.

[mjellish]

I forgot to mention the 8 wide move by Kent D on My Boy Jack.  Looked like he was still going to go by them all and then he hit an invisible force of some kind in the middle of the track.  I don\'t recall seeing many horses make that kind of move at FG and go on to win, and he had to know that.  Must have felt he had no choice.  He also stood up in the saddle before the wire.

[FrankD.]

MJ, Wrong, Tavasco,

Thanks, a well needed healer on ex & tri and go fund me page for mandatory rainbow next Saturday.

No way that 4th quarter time is correct, I watched the replay twice to check the board, thought I misread it the first time. Kent D. You just never know what ride you will get from him. That was simply Strange and he almost pulls it off?

For those looking for Elvis sightings, there haven’t been any reports even with Lisa Marie tapping out!

But in the FG Oaks there was an Oscar Barrera sighting for sure.....
All the winning fillie has done in the past 10 weeks is break her maiden for 15K, get claimed for 30K and win a Grade 2. OSCAR OSCAR OSCAR