TGJB

[horsegoer]

I would love to have a handicapping contest with you along with a analysis of the selected horses. I\'ll put up $1000.00................chump change to you

[Silver Charm]

How about a Spelling Bee ??

Welcome to the Board

[TGJB]

Beau-- I have a better idea. While you would probably beat me, I think you would agree that Friedman certainly would. So how about this-- you get him to have a serious, public handicapping contest with me, and I\'ll GIVE you the thousand. And you and I can make a side bet, so you can make even more money.

Short term contests involve a lot of randomness, and long term ones by definition take a lot of time. If Len and I have a contest, the stakes  (winning hearts and minds, as well as publicity for both camps) will be meaningful for both sides. This would not be true of a contest with you-- the upside for me would be minimal, and it would eat up time.

[horsegoer]

Your right! I do think he should take you up on this offer. It might have the feel of an \"ALI vs. Frazier\".

I\'ll ask him.

[TGJB]

Regarding Ruffian Fan\'s comment-- Len\'s upside is enormous. We have over 6600 on line accounts (not all of whom are paying customers), and the contest as an event would be very good publicity for sheets in general, win or lose. You\'ll have to find another reason why he hasn\'t taken me up on the challenge I have issued a half dozen times, including publicly at the DRF Expo.

As for Len\'s results, you have no idea how he does betting. You do know he has done well in tournaments, which would make you think he would be eager to take me up on my offer. But you also know how he has done with his public handicapping on his board, which has been so bad as to border on the surreal. And again, I\'m not saying he\'s a bad handicapper-- I spent hundreds of days sitting at racetracks with him, and our handicapping styles (but not our betting styles) are very similar. The fault is not with his handicapping.

[Silver Charm]

With all the races he and Jake claim their customers (ie-trainers, jocks agents, etc)win because of SHEETS, Len would have so much of an insiders edge I don\'t know how could possibly lose.

So why has he never taken you up on any of your challenges.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm???



Post Edited (07-15-04 16:07)

[kev]

What does he have to gain from it?? Who has the biggest share of sheet selling biz. I don\'t know who, but from what I hear maybe Rag\'s sells more, if they do then why do it??? If they write about it in the form, how many more people would join. Maybe Len is not like that, he\'s not one to go battle out in the open like that. What happens when one of the two does goes down, will it hurt their biz, don\'t think so. If anything it would hurt Jerry more, cause he is the one running it and if he would lose after saying how his numbers are better or whatever he says, that would look real bad. Say Jerry gets beat kinda of bad, and one month later JB says oh Rag\'s blew the ground lost and so and so race, people would come back and say who cares he beat you, right??? Don\'t put money on the line, say Jerry if you lose no more bad mouthing, could it be done??

[Silver Charm]

And lets say Len loses, does he admit his rigid One Variant fits all days everyday philosophy (as in track speed almost never changes on a daily basis or if it does its only modest) is FLAWED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You\'re right forget the cash.

[TGJB]

And yet I\'m still willing to have the contest...

Ragozin still outsells us (I think), although probably not by much, and the trend is strongly in our favor, which by itself is one reason for Friedman to want to kick my butt in public. But he could also have the same reasons I have-- lots of potential customers could be gained by both sides, and I think I would win.

Personally, I think it would be great publicity for both, but I don\'t think it\'s really possible to have a contest that would settle anything about the figures themselves. First, it would have to be VERY long in order to be statistically significant. Second, it might actually say more about handicapping and betting skill than the accuracy of figures.

It might actually be easier to have a systemized contest and take the handicapping skill and time required out of the mix.

Why not just look at the top figure for every single race covered over a 6 month period and look at the win percentages?

You could look at grand totals, individual circuits, sprints, routes, turf, last race mud etc...

I believe that with all subjective elements of handicapping removed, something as simple as win percentage for \"top figure\" would tell us who is making the more accurate figures.

You would want to leave out ROI because that could be the result of infuence on the board, which would be a seperate issue.



Post Edited (07-19-04 12:01)

[HP]

Wouldn\'t Friedman v. Brown really be anti-climactic after the mindbending results of the previous contests on this board?

Signed,
HP
(Undefeated Contest Winner)

[Silver Charm]

Perhaps on the undercard we could have you do battle against Brandt and TGAB go head-to head against JakeH. This of course assumes Jake can read Sheets, we really can\'t tell you know.

Also, from what I have heard HP you probably know a thing or two about undercards.

[TGJB]

What I had in mind for the contest was stake races only, weekends and holidays, at 10 or so tracks, over 6 months. For my part we would point people to the Red Board Room so they could see the rationale (or irrationale) behind the selections, and ask questions. The results would not be proof of anything, particularly if they are close, but if they are not they could possibly rise to the level of evidence, much more so than those of a short-term handicapping contest with a big field that places a premium only on playing longshots, and playing entirely differently than you would if you were playing day to day. Regardless, it would be an excellent vehicle for attracting and introducing non sheet players to sheets.

About a dozen years ago, a guy named Jim Bayle of a Vegas company called Sport Stat did some studies similar to the one you describe using TG, Ragozin, and several other services. Ragozin did better than us (although worse than some others), and Bayle later decided that the studies were not done in such a way as to be conclusive (I think it was a relatively small sample). So he decided to do it again 3-4 years ago, and Ragozin, us and several other figure makers gave him figures daily for 10 tracks, for 6 months. He was going to do a bunch of studies-- best last figure, best of last 3, take last 3, throw out worst and average other 2, etc. After collecting all the data Bayle decided the project was taking too much time away from his handicapping (seriously), and never ran the studies.

I would be very happy to have someone credible (DRF?) do a similar study now.

[HP]

If you are going to quote Cosell...

This is all poppycock and obfuscation! These nefarious tactics cannot conceal the simple fact that this ENTIRE THREAD is based on ducking the REAL heavyweight champion of the world. I will trounce Brown, Friedman and all comers using simply A TRACK PROGRAM!

All of this pattern study and trainer whatsis is FOR GIRLIE MEN! I walk up to the horse and I tell him YOU MUST WIN and they do not dare lose or I RIP THEM AND THEIR TINY RIDERS INTO LITTLE PIECES!!! That is how I win every contest. Not with your fruity ground loss \"data.\"

[TGJB]

86 the coffee.