A challenge of the sharpest brains at the Pegasus Tournament

[PlanetHellmers]

Gents,
What are horseplayers\' thoughts on playing in the January Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship cash tournament considering its a first of its kind without an entry fee, if you play on-track?

I\'m very curious why someone would not play in this tournament if a player bets roughly 5k per day on big days, given the high prize structure?

Even small players could bet what they normally bet and see if they hit something early on in the tournament, then pull out if they\'ve reached their bankroll limit.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/contests/pegasus-world-cup-betting-championship

Sincerely,
Oddball, Headgear lover, Pick6Boy, Guru, Winner of HPWS/DMR/SA tournaments, BCBC two time second place finisher, et al
~Sir Horseplayer Christian Hellmers

PS Compete against me if you dare...

[richiebee]

How could a minnow such as myself (wagered approximately 10k for all of 2017) compete against a TV celebrity?

I am however looking forward to the race itself, if a prepped to the picogram Sharp Azteca is entered. The cat and mouse with SA and GR on the front end could be rather interesting.

Best of luck sir, and I\'m hoping that \"Oddball\" is an homage to Donald Sutherland\'s character in \"Kelly\'s Heroes\".

[PlanetHellmers]

Good to meet you.  This tournament might be too much for a player betting only 10k per year unless you have a very strong opinion that is worth seeking private investors. However, I would invite you to start playing for fun from home to work out that decision-making muscle for small cash games, like the one at Santa Anita this past weekend, $500 ($300 bankroll / $200 entry fee).  

The other option is to team up with 10 friends/investors and put one person in charge of the bets as a syndicate. Wait is that collusion? Nope it is not according to their rules. Rally a crew and do your best to have a life altering weekend! The only way to get profitable as a tournament player or everyday player imho is to master the equilibrium value point between discipline and risk. Most, like me, had to learn the hard way. Bet the hard way in low bankroll cash tournaments until you\'ve mastered your strengths and weaknesses or team up with others.  Those are my initial thoughts off the cuff.

C

[Fairmount1]

You asked for players\' thoughts.  Here are a few questions specific for you that I am curious about your thoughts.

Doesn\'t the requirement to make you churn the entire amount of your bankroll in this tournament take away from your so-called \"freedom?\"  

Doesn\'t the rule along with a few other rule changes compared to the BCBC below not fit with your comments on Byk\'s show in November of \"letting freedom ring?\"

•   FRIDAY:  Players must bet a minimum total of $4,000 on at least 5 races ($800 per race minimum.)    If they do not fulfill this requirement, they will be effectively eliminated from the contest as of the start of Saturday’s races.

 http://stevebyk.com/broadcast/hour-2-andy-serling-shelly-blodgett-bill-gallo-christian-hellers/

Scroll to 1 hour 32 minutes for others\' to review if interested.  Several minutes in are the comments that prompted the questions above. Many more q\'s come to mind as well.  

PS-You didn\'t mention that if someone doesn\'t play their entire bankroll (like when you mentioned they could play until they reach their bankroll limit and withdraw) that they would incur a $500 penalty aka \"hospitality fee.\"   Do you know a loophole written vaguely to avoid this penalty so that it would only deduct \"points\" after a final score is posted?  Asking for a friend........

[johnnym]

See you at the minnow pond Mr.Bee

[PlanetHellmers]

I appreciate your thoughts. Happy to chime in more later.

Yes I believe in more freedom of betting/wagering choice and less rules because I see cash games as a great way to inspire regular players to take advantage of lower takeouts, to attract newcomers to experiment with our game, and to encourage big bettors to show what they are made of publicly. It\'s easier for everyday horseplayers to transition into cash games, not the fake betting arbitrarily assigned mythical games, if the rules mirror everyday betting and options with little interference. Most US horseplayers are skeptical of anything new because of distrust from previous experience with industry officials and a lack of customer service. If introduced in super simple formats, anyone making big bets at the track should shift their dollars into the tournaments to help grow the only segment in racing with any momentum.  

It\'s truly shocking to me that the executives who designed the original fake betting mythical qualifiers elected to remove choice from the races, effectively limiting the horseplayers\' to 10-15 races per contest disregarding any proper money management skills since every bet denomination is identical. I surmise profits were more important to these individuals in charge of these decisions but I can also see lack of vision being a contributing factor.  The fact that the NHC isn\'t pick and pray is another shocker to me.  Those companies and individuals who decided to avoid investing in basic web-based technology to allow players race choice have encouraged horseplayers to be lazy and less savvy imho. This is what separates the profitable from the unprofitable- knowing what races to target on a given day and when to adjust bankroll using Kelly equation or some form of it because the value is straight nectar.  

But back to your point about freedom. The tournament operators insist on an arbitrary bankroll amount and entry fee that feels right based on current feedback and participation from existing players as well as to cover their operating costs. The KDBC chose 20k in year 1 and earned less than 70 players. The following year they shifted the requirement to 12k and roughly doubled their entrants.  In my opinion, the goal of tournaments should be to create a monumental tournament circuit structured such that more players can earn a serious living and play professionally due to the slashed effective takeout of cash games. That is, if you win a cash tournament or finish in the top 5 consistently over time. This could get televised IF the stakes were high enough and the personalities captured all gamblers imaginations. Personally, I believe the entry fees should be greater but that\'s my preference, I\'d like closer to 50-50. The current BCBC is 25% entry fee and 75% bankroll.

Do you have an issue with the fact that a tournament director requires a certain bankroll and do you like the aforementioned entry fee and bankroll splits?  Do share your ideas!

I\'d like the focus of the rules, regulations, and formats to crown the most profitable players and performances in our industry since many of us are in hiding. This could attract hedge fund traders to attempt to outsmart horseplayers because it\'s an intriguing game and betting has always been cool and sexy. It would also invite an audience to watch unique gamblers lose large sums of money. That\'s what people want to see i.e. see reality shows like Survivor and the Bachelor where people are eliminated. People want to their weekly dose of catharsis every now and then- why not on personable horseplayers and their bad beats and disgusting decisions.  If you create a tournament that doesn\'t allow horseplayers to adjust their bet size and bet based on their opinions, you create a game that removes this component and it\'s not about ROI (as much) which isn\'t as interesting in today\'s competitive entertainment landscape to many of those in my generation.  Keep in mind I also won the fake betting Horseplayer World Series for 270k years ago because of my betting style and not luck and watching people throw darts at bombs isn\'t exciting because it\'s not a high enough probability game.  Reflecting on my opinion on the ideal tournament landscape, I believe cash games will eventually need to have 2-3 levels- beginners and advanced leagues based on a point system scored over the years with different bankroll requirements. Unfortunately, I\'ve yet to meet anyone in racing who is willing to invest in technology to solve many tournament issue. I\'ve spoken to TVG and several others who could elevate the tournament space, yet they don\'t do a thing. DRF elects to do a fake betting tournament because they don\'t want to invest in becoming an ADW and their agreement with DRF Bets prevents them from doing cash games is my understanding. That\'s not an excuse to skip out on paying horsemen and stakeholders. It\'s also not encouraging horseplayers to exude money management skills which irritates me deeply. DRF took the easy way out and did another ordinary fake betting mythical tournament. Tournament leadership but I\'ll do everything in my power to shift that this year as I become more vocal and share the views of many passionate horseplayers.

From conversations with people over the years I\'ve gathered that many horseplayers refuse to play cash tournaments due to rules and regs in addition to bankroll sizes and travel logistics.  As it stands today in 2018, I\'m still surprised more regular players don\'t save up and enter these tournaments given that our industry consists of more than 100-150 players regularly betting 2-5k per day. I\'m going to create some incentives of my own this year.  I\'ll do my best to reward you if you do well by interviewing winners on Periscope like I did last weekend at Santa Anita during their first cash game of the tournament. Robert Talstra played superb and has an outstanding record to date. Who knew? Well the world will now.  Take a look at my Twitter by finding me at RaworDie and you\'ll see what I mean. It\'s time the media does a better job of covering tournaments and the unprofessional bias removed. I\'ve lost complete faith in many of the so-called journalists and \"marketeers.\" My goal is to take the cash games to the level of the World Series of Poker which means it\'s time to turn the focus on the actual stars who take the big shots and fall or prevail. Fake betting dart throwers not invited. That\'s what I intend to do on Twitter all year- celebrate the true profitable legendary betting performers of this challenging game and shift attention away from the unprofitable talking heads who get air time with few credentials and refuse to accurately document their recommendations, picks, and ROI. They will get exposed this year. Mark my words.

C

[IK]

So it\'s true? The tourney is very undersold?

[big18741]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I am however looking forward to the race itself,
> if a prepped to the picogram Sharp Azteca is
> entered. The cat and mouse with SA and GR on the
> front end could be rather interesting.

Don\'t forget about Collected who would also be up there near the front.
Twelve horse field going 9f\'s at GP makes for a hot pace if one or more of the front end types draws outside.

I\'m a little interested in Stellar Wind now that she\'s in the Brown barn.
She\'s mostly been a stalker presser type but came from off the pace in the FM Distaff when they ran at Keeneland a couple years back.

[ajkreider]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How could a minnow such as myself (wagered
> approximately 10k for all of 2017) compete against
> a TV celebrity?



Always with the negative waves . . . .

[johnnym]

War Story ran just as fast as GR in the BCC

[TGJB]

The big problem with this contest (and some others) is that I can\'t play it from my desk. It requires an investment of time, and to a lesser degree, expenses. Considering these guys own Xpressbet you would think this would be a soluble problem.

For those of you who don\'t know Christian, yes, he talks like that as well. But he\'s not the goofball they made him out to be on the show, before that he was the American Head of Business Development for a company called Betfair, and he does care and have ideas about about growing the game. Those of you who first were exposed to TG through the Betfair promotion have him to thank for making himself a royal pain in my butt.

But in general, we need as much discussion of this kind on this site as possible. So here\'s one thing (of many) Christian and I argued about recently-- on a macro level, what effects are handicapping contests having on the industry?

[PlanetHellmers]

Jerry,
You can play the Pegasus from your desk. Check the rules. No need to go to the track but you gotta pay an entry fee which doesn\'t make sense to me given the track and ADW are owned by Stronach. You have no excuse for not playing as we argued unless the entry fee is too high for you. But I\'ve seen you play in the BCBC and the BCBC entry fee is way higher so take a swing as the card should be loaded with quality racehorses to choose from or avoid supporting one of the best cash tournaments on the planet because of expenses and time.

As you know , I will do almost anything for this game as I dedicated 4 years of my life lobbying for the betting exchange on behalf of Betfair and leading the TVG-Betfair acquisition along with Greg Nichols for $50M.  Thanks for the kind words and respect. The contests (as we argued) could lure gamblers from other arenas such as fantasy sports and poker IF the tournament structure is simple, televised one way or another to stroke egos, and enjoyable i.e. set up to allow betting with friends. Racing can no longer sit on an island and it must consider making the tournaments more attractive to \'potential\' horseplayers. If that means creating all in moments, then let\'s do it.  If that means creating lineups with your favorite horses on the day like in fantasy football with weighted salaries (ie odds), then let\'s do that too. If the tournament directors start forcing players to bet too many races a day with arbitrary minimums and limiting the social aspect of betting together due to collusion fears, we will be headed for a lonely boring game amongst ourselves. The only way to answer your question Jerry is to experiment over a 3-5 year plan and I will do my best to start capturing the stories when I do attend.

[bluechip21]

For a game struggling to attract younger fans / players something tells me a $10k buy in(or whatever they are) for a tournament doesn’t seem like the right approach to me. If i were a power that be, I’d focus on building the next generation of horse players, like my self (31).

[moosepalm]

bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For a game struggling to attract younger fans /
> players something tells me a $10k buy in(or
> whatever they are) for a tournament doesn’t seem
> like the right approach to me. If i were a power
> that be, I’d focus on building the next
> generation of horse players, like my self (31).

Your point is one that occurred to me, as well.  The challenges for the sport are multi-faceted and plentiful, and certainly won\'t be solved by high end tournaments.  However, it needn\'t be an either/or approach. I didn\'t invest much time in reading Christian\'s proposals because most of it is above my pay grade, but I strongly suspect that if he and JB were on the same page with this, they could come up with a game plan that would hit the sweet spot for the serious players with serious bank.

But for the rest, the idea of affordable tournaments is a good thing, and we\'re seeing signs of that online, and I see it even in the hinterlands at Finger Lakes.  Players love that kind of competition.  I don\'t know what the saturation point is, but I doubt we\'re even close to it, and if there was a way to make the high end tournaments TV-friendly with a tie-in to TVG or some other media venue, all the better.  The series that featured Christian, Beychok and others was highly entertaining.  It\'s a shame the sport does not have a central command post to kick the tires on something like this, and provide a coordinated effort for analysis and implementation.  But, that overall leadership void plagues the sport in nearly every aspect of its operation, already.

[rezlegal]

While I believe tournaments have a role in the gaming part of horse racing, the notion that tournaments with substantial buy-ins will attract new and younger players is a fantasy.Today\'s younger gambler has grown up with a need for instant gratification and I can think of no reason--and know no one-who has a desire to learn the intricacies of handicapping, money management and betting merely for the opportunity to \"buy-in\" to a tournament full of seasoned handicappers, who have spent the better part of a lifetime immersed in horse racing and have judgment and wisdom that take decades to develop. Many of the tourney sites, i.e. horse tourneys.com, DRF, have the right idea by offering feeders and qualifiers for recreational handicappers to sharpen their talents (or learn they have no talent). I have no idea whether those smaller qualifiers take away or add to the handle generally,but they have attracted me,I find them fun and it has not decreased (or increased) my overall betting. In term of the larger buy in tourneys, the issue is not whether I think I am a better handicapper than TGJB, Planet Helmers or others on this board--I am simply not prepared to spend $5k or $10k to find out.That money will carry me--and I suspect most everyone on this Board-for a fair period of regular playing.

This brings us back to a related issue that has been discussed from time to time on this board-sports betting. As most of you know the Supreme Court will soon decide the constitutionality of PASPA, the Federal statute that limits spots betting to 4 states, primarily Nevada. Roughly 13 states-including NY and New Jersey (which challenged the statute)already have states bring to go if, as many expect,PASPA is found to be unconstitutional .How big will this be?? In today\'s NY Times business section, Churchill Downs Inc.(the entity not the racetrack)made an offering to buy back $500,000,000 of its own stock. \"Hmm\" I said to myself and did a bit of digging. CDI just sold a mobile gaming company it owned for $990 million.So,it can afford to buy back its stock. The CEO of CDI was quoted as saying the sale of this division was to enable it to refocus on among other things its \"casino segment, Twinspires.com and OTHER FORMS OF REAL MONEY GAMING..(emphasis mine)\" What did CDI mean about \"real money gaming\". A bit more research. Well,it seems simultaneously with these corporate issues taking place, Kentucky now has proposed legislation to legalize sports betting if PASPA is overturned by the Supremes. And guess what Ky. administrative agency gets oversight responsibility if the new legislation becomes law--the Kentucky Horse racing commission.
All of this strongly suggests that the home of the Kentucky Derby (and this has been true for some time)recognizes where the next wave gambling dollars will come from--and sadly, it will not be from millenials, Generation X\'ers or the like who have decided to take up handicapping as a hobby--it will on sports betting.I suspect horse racing betting will continue as it has for years-on line, a few whales or computer syndicates,big race days and this Board of passionate followers. No one--is likely to be attracted by having to pay $5k or $10k to play in a big money tournament.