A challenge of the sharpest brains at the Pegasus Tournament

[Niall]

I have slowly transitioned away from parimutuel playing towards the tournament format, simply because I get a lot more action for my bankroll. However, I have found that after going through an entire \"tournament\" card, I am better able to find some good spot plays and thus have increased my ROI. Like everyone here, I love the game and am concerned about how tournament play may take $$ out of the hands of the various stakeholders. Is there a correlation between tournament play and an increase in actual handle, at least individually?

[Gerard]

As someone who struggles to meet FrankD\'s definition of a recreational handicapper more and more these days even though my kids are grown and I do have more time on my hands than expected, I\'ll throw my hat in.

Troubles within the industry are accurately depicted everywhere on this board, however I wager less and less each year for no other reason than handicapping takes far too much time than ever with less value plays to be found. Recreational handicapping is a mutually exclusive term in this environment. Good or bad, all on this board take pride in their handicapping and want value for their time and money. Adding time to learn rules and regs of a tournament that I most likely do not have time for is not going to bring my wagering dollar back.

The hedge fund manager in most cases is going to be more interested in taking a one in a million shot at getting his picture taken in the WC on the first Saturday in May than dedicate the time and resources required to do well at a given tourney.

As a prospective returnee, and someone who will wager zero money on the Pegasus this year, someone who is tired of watching dollars bet on 30% trainers, and someone watching betting menus expand and pools thin out, I say if you can experiment for 3-5 years with something, level the betting field for one race per year for now. We have two people here it seems that could attempt to do that. Ten horses in the Pegasus this year, create a separate win pool, run all at equal weights if there are allowances, send all off at 8.50-1. Let TG or someone create a teletimer spread and we can wager accordingly. Obviously, it can\'t be that simple, but for a single race once a year, it\'ll attract my dollars back to start.

[waweja]

the idea of the  technology is coming from the ancient eras.

[Fairmount1]

Wow!  The Friday card at Gulfstream is stellar.  One of those cards you will never ever forget.  This is a day of racing to really get excited about to bet a mandatory $4,000.00 on five races!!!!  Look at this Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship Day 1 Tournament event and tell me you aren\'t excited to shove $12,000 into this \"most player friendly handicapping tournament.\"  This is the way the sharpest minds in the game should play!!  

1.  MdnClm$20k, Turf
2.  Clm$12.5k
3.  MdnClm$25k
4.  Clm6250
5.  Clm6250
6.  Starter Optional Claim $16k/$25k, Turf
7.  Clm$16k, Turf
8.  Clm$30k
9.  Clm$16k, Turf
10. AlwOpClm$25k  (the feature I presume?)
11. MdnClm$12.5k

[johng032]

I get your point but why, purely from a betting contest standpoint, does the type of races matter? If they have full fields and/or wide open races, with horses in form  or rounding into form, does it matter if they re 6,250 claimers or NW3x allowance?

At GP, The Nw1x and 2x usually have a Pletcher or Brown odds on favorite and relatively short fields. Would I prefer more quality races with larger fields, of course. I\'m assuming Pegasus day has all of the undercard stakes and listed stakes, similar to last year.

If you don\'t like the betting card on Friday, it will force you to have a more strategic view of the races and play in such way to try and preserve your bankroll  or lay it in on 1 or 2 races.

Just my opinion. Good Luck if you are playing.

[TempletonPeck]

johng032 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> with horses in form  or rounding into form

I think the entire objection can be summed up here - you assume these horses are either a) in form, or b) rounding into form, and I have no idea why you think that\'s a safe assumption.

Seems pretty obvious to me that the bottom level races on a day near or on a huge day are ripe for skullduggery (think of Masochistic on Derby day), and therefore not events I want to gamble on.

IOW - It\'s the vegetable JUICE!

[Fairmount1]

I am not playing. I do know a friend who was buying two entries to play at GP and cancelled his trip from the West Coast after seeing Friday\'s entries.  His words were \"it is awful, just awful.\"  I know one other person who said they will still play but they are disappointed in Friday\'s card. It matters.  At least $24k not being wagered into GP\'s pools gone b/c of the Fri card being embarassingly bad.  I\'m sure there will be others who don\'t play but maybe I\'m wrong.      

The overflowing field sizes for Friday\'s card are as follows:

1.  8
2.  7
3.  7
4.  8
5.  9
6.  8
7.  10
8.  8
9.  11
10. 7
11. 12

Any guesses on the field size for the Rainbow 6 races on Sunday.....far larger than Friday\'s card??  Bet I know the answer to that one.

[Tavasco]

Mr. Peck,

As usual I admire the acuteness of the points you make. In this particular case and no slight to johng032\'s general assumptions (without facts) - going into any card, stray from the objective of gaining an advantage, as you suggest (I think).

On the subject of form cycle, rounding in, tailing off, bouncing forward or back my belief is form cycle facts are as important a component as is a runners performance potential. I have the data and the time consequently I will embark upon a study. Any related requests are welcome.

Included within that discussion is the question - is form cycle more predictive as a function of race\'s class or quality. Believing Fairmount to be a true fan of the sport, a traditionalist if you will. I\'m thinking his complaint is not related to handicapping as much as it is to the spectacle, the pagentry. the preparation and promotion of the event and its lead up.

But just guessing?

[FrankD.]

Tavasco,

I’ll weigh in and save you sometime on your reasearch pertaining to A pair of classifications that the Gulfstream “Championship Meet” writes 3-4 times per day other than a handful of Saturday’s.

The bottom level of 6250 is the Ouchies with back numbers Derby.... Most days 80% of the field has a back TG # that would wreck their field. They are cripples, claimed off Navarro for 25K, a step away from being ridden in someone’s back yard as pets or worse..... You never know who will pop up and run on any given day or what they were given pre race to make them get back to that old number one last time. There are days when this class is written for 3 dances. Total crap shoot which would be fine in a phantom contest, not real money.

The 2nd is the maiden 12500 claimer, Senor 🐝 May want to chime in with a 3rd as he is as disgusted with the 16K maiden Turf claimer as I am with my 2.
The best example I can give as to how bad this at least once daily heat is on Friday 1/12 in the 5th & 7th races. A pair of TAP throw aways one a Paul Pompa home bred with some decent lineage the other a Starlight  120K yearling purchase.
Both were sent out for maiden 50K in their first starts which is a fire sale sign in that barn. Both were dropped in for 12500 in their 2nd lifetime start, both won, dollars to donuts you will never see or hear from either again, not an uncommon Pletcher occurrence!

Fairmount is far to young to be a traditionalist. He loves the game but seems a bit disappointed by the content of the contest that will save racing.

The Saturday card hopefully when drawn tomorrow will come up awesome with 7 stakes @ 125K & up plus The Stronach Derby, Sunday with a 15 mil plus mandatory 🌈 the fields will be Chuck Full😎

Frank D.

[albatross]

Mr. D.,
Like you, I’ve followed Fl. Racing quite a while. I did however, miss the news of the Sunday mandatory announcement. When was that announced or was there a set date or jackpot size. Noticed it not mentioned in their news 2 days ago. I see it on their site, but do you recall when and they’re reasoning. With a great card and a room full of contest players, I’m sure many will channel the Dan Borislew, R.I.P. move from a few years back. Thanks if you happen to know

[johng032]

I looked at the card. It is a pretty bad collection of horse flesh but it doesn’t change my outlook on the contest. I’m confident that I can find enough action on the card to make it worthwhile. It will turn off some like your friend and he/she will likely find another track to play. If I don’t have enough strong opinions, I’ll stick the money back in my pocket.

[FrankD.]

Al B Tross,

They announced it about 2 weeks ago. If you look at the rainbow rules on their site, they can basically decide arbitratorly on a mandatory  payout at any time by written request.

It’s all about the handle number there, nothing more and the Stronach tracks bend over backwards to the Bot teams to that effect. I wish Miff was still posting here as he and a Blood Horse writer have done extensive investigation on this topic including filling a freedom of information act with NYRA. Bot teams account for roughly 20% of the pools at the major US tracks.

Great business move the 🌈 will get hammered on a mega handle day and they will get a 2nd windfall the following day. I don’t foresee a Dan Borislew type event happing before Sunday unless it’s someone’s phone # with 4 horses paying north of 20/1 in the sequence. There has been a building Tsunami of cash into it since the announcement. A 20 mil pot would not surprise on Sunday.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[albatross]

Thank You!

[NoCarolinaTony]

Can you bet the contest from North Carolina? 12 states in this country cannot participate and thus, pools are reduced. Sure I can try to find a dead relative in Florida to play, but what if I win? Not worth the hassle.

NCTONY

[BitPlayer]

I don\'t play tournaments, so I have no skin in this game, but I note that this tournament has been over for 5 hours and I find zero articles on DRF, Bloodhorse, or Paulick Report about the results.  I was able to find out who won, but that\'s not the point.  Part of the argument for tournaments is that they give recognition to (or feed the egos of) horseplayers.  Making that work requires publicity.