The Purist and Wiggle Room

[Tavasco]

Upon reading the TG analylsis of the upcoming Breeders Cup Classic race I sat back and chuckled to myself. My immediate thought was how imaginative. Then I reflected back on the introduction to the seminar and fixated on the endeavors search for value. I just hadn\'t seen this possibility coming and I wasn\'t sure of the position. I needed to reflect and consider my reflections and considerations.

Going back in time a couple of weeks. I had concluded the Classic was a race of no interest economically. Either Arrogate ran his race and consequently won. Or lacking that Gun Runner wins. With each at expected odd of 8/5 where is the opportunity I questioned. I wasn\'t considering the DMR short stretch or acclimation time or any of the other contenders.

Fast forward a week or so, some binge watching of work out videos and finally some introspection culminating with why is trainer Baffert entering four horses and what would happen in the show pool if they were coupled? Whereas the industry press focused on BB\'s quest for most of the $6M purse. Alternative concepts snuck into my mind. Maybe his group is weak not strong?

Putting myself in the shoes of a TG purist aware only of the sheets no distracting thought like Bob Baffert wins virtually all the big races. When he enters two horses the lesser regarded horse often updets the celebrity etc. I can see the value of beating the popular mindset, conceptually, but it doesn\'t seem real world.

Of course being the last race affords the opportunity to glean some facts unavailable today. Which trainer won the Dirt Mile, The Sprint, The Juvenile, etc. I doubt I\'ll be able to act on the recomendations of the analysis in the Classic. I\'m sure I have no alternative and don\'t want to try and pick the exact sequence the top three or four. I\'ve come full circle and still resigned to sit on by wallet.