National fantasy sports hold like national slot machine hold is around 10%

[breakage1]

Yet horse racing is still trying to ram that square peg into that round hole of much higher than that takeout.


About $320million in revenue on $3.2billion in handle from fantasy sports in the article below.

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/16152/draftkings-fanduel-dfs-revenue/?

Some portion of that would be going to racing if not for the prohibitive take out rates.

[Boscar Obarra]

While I\'m as anti high takeout as anyone, there\'s no comparison to the fantasy sport world.

 As a matter of fact, at 10% , they are bigger thieves than the racetracks.

 OVERHEAD.  What\'s the overhead on fantasy sports VS running a racetrack ?

 I\'d guess a tiny fraction vs the wagered dollar.

[richiebee]

Breakage:

I\'m all for political statements, and thanks for the link.

Looking at the monthly totals, it appears that football is the primary engine
driving fantasy sports.

Here in the 21st Century, which sport is closer to extinction -- football or
thoroughbred racing?

There is plenty of doom and gloom regarding thoroughbred racing. There have
been many well meant and well thought out \"The Sky is Falling\" themed posts
here and elsewhere which might lead one to believe that the sound of thundering
hooves is actually a death rattle, but then we read about very positive handle
numbers from summer venues such as Del Mar, Saratoga, Ellis Park and Kentucky
Downs.

Lets look at the NFL, and I will not engage in any conversation regarding the
pre-game behavior of players. Despite the scientific findings regarding CTE,
and the NFL\'s (reluctant) embrace of the \"concussion protocol\", the NFL has
really done NOTHING to limit head and neck injuries in the wake of the rather
disturbing findings regarding CTE; if anything the concussion protocol has
shown just how many players suffer concussion like injuries each and every
game.

Without getting into detail, and while appreciating the irony involved, the
manner of reducing head and neck injuries which might be most effective would
be to eliminate the football helmet.

What is the future of football? Where will the NFL get its players if parents
refuse to allow their pre-teen and teenaged children to participate in the
sport out of fear of injury? Will the cost of insuring a youth or high school
football team become prohibitive?

In addition to the concussion protocol, the NFL (and I would imagine the NCAA)
has limited the amount of contact pre-season and during the practices between
games; many experts have attributed an erosion in fundamental skills (blocking,
tackling) to the reduction of full contact practices. Furthermore, despite the
NFL\'s attempts to make rules to protect its players, three of the NFL\'s biggest
stars (JJ Watt, Odell Beckham and Aaron Rodgers) all went down with season
ending injuries in the last two weeks.

But enough with football, Breakage. I think you will be happy to know that I
was appalled when Keeneland brazenly raised their takeout to the maximum
allowed by Commonwealth of Kentucky law. I think many people were appalled, but
continued to bet at Keeneland anyway. The Keeneland meets used to be among my
favorites, but I have made only one bet at the entire fall meet, and probably
will not make another. I hope that Keeneland handle is off significantly, and
that the Keeneland folks get the message.

The reason that Keeneland\'s takeout was particularly egregious to me was that
Keeneland is as well known as a sales venue as it is as a racing venue. I have
long advocated (too strong a word, I am not constantly corresponding with
Keeneland officials; lets replace \"advocated\" with \"suggested\") that
pinhooker\'s profits be surcharged in order to fund drug research, drug
enforcement, improvement of conditions on the backstretch, aftercare, etc. Just
a reminder that many lucrative \"pinhooks\" never make it to the races and I have
sometimes characterized pinhooking as a shadow economy.

Has high takeout driven horseplayers into the fantasy sports world? I would
have to see concrete evidence before accepting that as fact. I do however
strongly believe that NFL Football faces as much (or more) uncertainty in the
future as does thoroughbred racing.

[BitPlayer]

I found this comment on a Pull The Pocket blog post interesting:

\"In a follow up discussion with Keenland\'s Bob Elliston, Michelle Yu asks the right question at 20:18 : \"What are the projections, then, for the purse increase that\'s going to go hand in hand with this takeout [increase]?\" Among the laundry list of \'items that are not purses\': additional breeder bonuses for \'Book 1 quality\' horses auctioned off under a Keenland gavel.

Additionally, at 27:06 we\'re told that player-friendly takeout rates don\'t provide the marginal revenue necessary to compete against other signals who amply rebate their larger bettors.

The interview provides an unpalatable but candid assessment: Keenland needs a larger share of your betting dollars needs to subsidize sales, whales, and robots.\"

http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2017/10/keeneland-rake-hike-time-your-guide-to.html

[Tavasco]

FWIW

I saw a report on one of the industry daily news feeds (can\'t remember which one?)  a day or two ago - interim report Keeneland handle down for fall 2017 meet.

[Fairmount1]

Tavasco, Bit, and \'bee, FWIW:

My understanding is that Keeneland raised WPS bets by 1.5 percent and all other bets excluding the p5 by 3 percent.  Wagering is down 9.5 million dollars through today as compared to last year.  

If you want to see the running totals and all the details on Keeneland\'s declines, check out the twitter handle o_crunk who provides a daily update. Also comparisons to all other tracks\' increases/declines compared to last year are included. Short story, other major tracks are up compared to last year during the same time Kee is down.  Just google Twitter @o_crunk and his feed should pop up for your viewing.

Whether Keeneland is actually \"losing\" any revenue compared to last year likely depends on the amount of wagers made on the exotics versus the WPS bets.  Maybe other, far wiser mathematical minds can speak to this fact.  If they are down 9.5 million give or take but their increased takeout is 1.5 to 3 percent, has Keeneland been affected?

I asked Jim Goodman in person at Keeneland last weekend an open ended question or two about Keeneland\'s position on the so-called boycott after their increased takeout hike.  I hope to not butcher what he said but I believe what follows is accurate paraphrasing.  He essentially said Don\'t penalize us (Kee) for charging the same rates as Belmont and Santa Anita.  He went on to say NYRA gets 65 million from slots and we (Kee) only get a fraction as compared to that figure.  He rattled off the increase or declines for every day to that point as compared to \'16 and on one of the increased days I interrupted him to say \"True it was up compared to last year but you had one more race on that day compared to last year.\"  He still was trying to protray as if rain/off the turf on 10/8 was the reason for any declines and that overall declines weren\'t that significant.  Basically, I walked away believing that Kee is riding this meet out with some declines and hoping that in April no one will care as much with Kee further hoping it will be business as usual with handle returning to pre-\"boycott\" levels.  To be clear, this last sentence was my impression and not specifically stated by Goodman.  

A few things that bother me about the increased takeout is that it is clear that Keeneland is in bed with CDI. Recently they jointly proposed and met failure for new tracks (QH and Harness? I think) they would build that would involve more slots.  CDI is a for profit publically traded company already charging the max state rates that must answer to the their shareholders.  Keeneland is a not for profit and only runs 2 months of the year unlike NYRA racing year round.  Of course I only listened to Goodman and didn\'t point this out.  He is a respected figure in the contest and wagering world and I was more curious to listen than respond to his comments.

TVG recently interviewed one of the key Kee figures and while no question of the takeout was posed, there was PR speak about the value that Keeneland provides bettors.  It was a joke to watch and listen if you (as a viewer) had any clue about the recent takeout increases.

Last I understand that Keeneland has declared they will return the money to racing.  If so, every dollar should go to staying ahead of the curve on testing, security, etc but I know this thought is pure folly although arguably this meet has been as fair as ever it would seem based on the results I have seen day in and day out.  And who knows, if the boycott is significant enough, maybe Kee drops their rates but I wouldn\'t hold my breath.....

[colt]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco, Bit, and \'bee, FWIW:
>
> My understanding is that Keeneland raised WPS bets
> by 1.5 percent and all other bets excluding the p5
> by 3 percent.

Fairmount,

Thanks for sharing, but the WPS increased 9.4% (1.5/16 - from 16 to 17.5), and exotic wagering minus the P5 increased 15.8% (3/19 - from 19 to 22).  So a P3 that previously returned $100 before the increase, is now reduced to $84.20.

[johnnym]

Will the take out rate for the BCC be the normal Del Mar rate?

[BitPlayer]

Colt -

Your math regarding the new payout is off.  The percent change in payout is based on the percentage change in the amount returned to bettors (3/81 is roughly 3.7%), not on the percentage change in takeout.  In your example, the new payout would be roughly $96.30 (maybe $96.20 with breakage).

That said, for the bets I care about, Keeneland is NOT now the same as Belmont and Santa Anita.  The WPS takeout of 17.5% for Keeneland compares to 16% for NYRA and 15.43% for Santa Anita and Del Mar.

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/2017Sortable.html

[Focus959]

HANA takeout spreadsheet 2017:

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/2017Sortable.html

[colt]

Bit,

Thanks for the correction.

[johnnym]

Thanks for the link.
Del Mar sure is not to shabby in there takeout.
As much as a 8% difference between WPS wagers and Exotics.