Roca Rojo

[TGJB]

Anybody have a theory as to what Rosario was (not) thinking?

[SoCalMan2]

I think the guy is an awful rider and also stupid.  So the following is not intended to defend him in anyway.  I bet Roca Rojo and was very disappointed with the result, and I blame Rosario.

Putting all that aside for a moment, sixty percent of the horses in the race where Chad Brown.  With that many horses in the race, there is the risk that some horses can interfere with other horses in the same stable.  Two of the horses were favored and Roca Rojo was not.  Am thinking it is possible there was an instruction to have Roca Rojo not do anything that could blow it for the other horses and just stay out of everybody\'s way and run at the end.  

Again, ride was terrible, but instruction may have been do not compromise the top two choices.

This is pure speculation.

I was very disappointed with the result and I think Rosario stinks as a jockey.  However, it was possible he was more worried about his relationship with Chad Brown than he was about disappointing the people who bet on his mount.

[Boscar Obarra]

Not sure I buy the stinks part. Rosario had three winners on the card, and a good heads up ride in the 13th.

 They all stink when needed.  As you said, it\'s defiantly a problem when a trainer has three in the race. Lots of Browns runners \'drop out\' early , but this one took a bit long to get into contention.

[TheEdge07]

In my opinion Castellano gave Antonoe a odd ride.

[SoCalMan2]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> Not sure I buy the stinks part. Rosario had three
> winners on the card, and a good heads up ride in
> the 13th.
>
>  They all stink when needed.  As you said, it\'s
> defiantly a problem when a trainer has three in
> the race. Lots of Browns runners \'drop out\' early
> , but this one took a bit long to get into
> contention.

No jockey gives 100% great rides or 100% terrible rides.  It is all a matter of consistency and reliability. Also, some horses are less ride sensitive than others (e.g. some horses are just going to run their race no matter who is on top whereas some horses are extremely dependent on the jockey to find a good trip). Jockeys are going to win some races.

When I am handicapping, if a horse needs a good trip to be competitive, I evaluate what I think is going to happen.  For horses ridden by Joel Rosario, I elevate the chances that he is going to do something boneheaded because I have been burned enough times by him.  I do not very often find myself regretting downgrading his mounts because I did not think he could produce the trip necessary. That doesn\'t mean I throw out his mounts every time. It is a judicious process.  In general in my experience, I find I am more likely to regret using his mounts than to regret discarding his mounts.

[TGJB]

I figure that filly ran the last 4 1/2f in right around 50. Whoever\'s idea it was to ride her like that-- and it might not be his-- it was nuts. Went the LAST 16th in 5 and change seconds.

[philywheel]

ROCA ROJO (IRE) got checked after
lumbering her way out of the gate, was dragged by the rider over to the hedge, loped along as the trailer for six furlongs, saving ground and pulling hard on
the left side of the bit, responded with a display of acceleration when given her cue leaving the five-sixteenths pole, angled six wide into the stretch,
straightened away and came home with solid, but belatedly energy.

Philywheel

[TGJB]

She got dragged back to last, way behind the nearest horse, and behind a slow pace (considering the grass was rock hard). Still kept well behind the others until halfway around the turn, for no reason. He gave her no shot. Ridiculous.

[jbrown007]

Rosario killed me twice on turf Friday. He won on Forever but I wouldn\'t give him credit for that.

[Boscar Obarra]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> She got dragged back to last, way behind the
> nearest horse, and behind a slow pace (considering
> the grass was rock hard). Still kept well behind
> the others until halfway around the turn, for no
> reason. He gave her no shot. Ridiculous.


Absolutely. But you see this all the time on the grass, from many different riders.  Could be Rosario screws it up more often than some , but in general I think he wins too often for there to be an edge is discounting his mounts.

 If there\'s some stat that disproves that, would be interesting to see it.

[BitPlayer]

I bet her too, and I\'ve never been on horseback, but I\'m guessing this wasn\'t all Rosario.  The mare gave Geroux fits in the Just A Game.  I assumed that the switch to Rosario was to see if his hands would fit her better (a la Beach Patrol).  I thought they might send her, but when they didn\'t I assumed that Rosario was under instructions to take her back.  Unfortunately, once he got her in hand, she was far behind the field. After that, he may have been afraid that once he gave her some rein, she would try to do too much.  Watch what happened to Geroux in the early stages of the Just A Game.  You can see that Rosario kept Roca Rojo under a hold down the backstretch.

Of course, there is some common ownership with Lady Eli, so beating her may not have been a high priority.

[richiebee]

So this is the second straight year where a graded stake race at Saratoga has
come up smelling a little fishy due to an uncoupled Chad Brown entry.

Remember in the 2016 Sword Dancer, Flintshire came up the hedge to win going
away. David Grenig\'s  DRF account of the Sword Dancer was as follows:
\"Flintshire combined his own brilliance and an assist from a stablemate to
record his second straight victory in Saturday\'s Grade 1 Sword Dancer...
[Flintshire] got a big assist from Aaron Gryder on the pacemaker Inordinate,
who moved off the inside, creating room for Flintshire...\"

(Personal note: I was at the Spa for the 2016 Sword Dancer, thought Flintshire
would have won the race with or without Gryder\'s assistance).

It is bad enough that a graded turf stake at a frequently run distance comes up
with only five starters (I do not know how many were originally nominated).
When three of the entries are from one barn, and run uncoupled, the potential
for smelliness will always exist, especially where, as here, Lady Eli and Rocco
Rojo shared common ownership, each being owned in part by Sheep Pond Partners.
I know it smacks of bad sportsmanship, but it is not hard to imagine a scenario
where Rosario is told not to do anything to interfere with the featured
performer.

Going into Monday\'s races, Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher are locked in a battle
for leading trainer honors. Brown is 33/125; TAP is 32/120; no other trainer
has saddled more than 82 runners. Let us not forget that these two accounted
for all three Triple Crown events this year.

I have mentioned before the intangible advantages operations on the large scale
of Chad and TAP enjoy. Perhaps the greatest advantage they enjoy is nearly
unlimited stall space at whichever NYRA venue is open for racing. It would not
surprise me to hear that CB and TAP each had between 80-120 stalls at Saratoga.
Not only do these outfits enjoy large stall allocations, but the way these
large outfits utilize the stalls are not subjected to the same scrutiny as the
lower profile outfits might be. Stabling layups and 2YOs not ready to race are
advantages undoubtedly granted to the BIG outfits; if a lower profile trainer
tried to use the Spa as a 2YO training center or a rehab facility, or shipped
out of NYRA to run, this trainer would likely be under constant pressure from
the racing office, pressure not likely applied to TAP and Chad.

In olden days, trainers at NYRA were limited to 40 stalls;* query whether
capping the number of stalls allocated to CB and TAP and others would result in
more trainer diversity at the Spa, and whether this would improve the quality
of Racing?

Getting back to coupled entries and field size, there is no reason to believe
that mandating all entries with common ownership or saddled by the same trainer
run coupled would eliminate any of the (alleged) unsportsmanlike conduct in
last years Sword Dancer or this years Ballston Spa; to the contrary, it would
somehow sanitize it. Of course, if Roca Rosario was coupled with Lady Eli the
price of both runners would have been reduced.

In my opinion, the greatest damage done by permitting uncoupled entries is that
it allows the Racing Secretary/Stakes Coordinator to become complacent. If the
three Brown entrants were required to run coupled the Racing Secretary would be
confronted with a Ballston Spa with four wagering interests before the scratch
of an entrant which may never have intended to run anyway. Given this short
field scenario, it is possible that NYRA would have had to work more diligently
to recruit more runners for this race.

------
* Woody Stephens was for 15 or so years NYRA\'s dominant trainer when it came to
stakes performers and 2YOs; he did it with a stall allocation capped at 40. But
Stephens trained mostly homebreds (ie Hickory Tree and others) which were
trained on farms. Most of these homebreds had the benefit of serious foundation
built on these farms. Many of these young runners were only two or three works
away (and possibly some paddock/gate schooling) away from their first start. In
today\'s game, auction purchases seem to outnumber homebreds. The owner of a big
ticket auction purchase probably wants this horse to go directly to the
racetrack, as does the trainer, who collects no day money if the youngster goes
to a training farm to complete preparations for their first race.

[jbelfior]

Not to mention Ortiz\' ride on Money Multiplier last year.

Karma\'s a bitch and was ecstatic to see him steamed after the Sword Dancer as I strolled to the window to cash on the Albertrani horse.

Btw: thanks TG!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B

[shanahan]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I bet her too, and I\'ve never been on horseback,
> but I\'m guessing this wasn\'t all Rosario.  The
> mare gave Geroux fits in the Just A Game.  I
> assumed that the switch to Rosario was to see if
> his hands would fit her better (a la Beach
> Patrol).  I thought they might send her, but when
> they didn\'t I assumed that Rosario was under
> instructions to take her back.  Unfortunately,
> once he got her in hand, she was far behind the
> field. After that, he may have been afraid that
> once he gave her some rein, she would try to do
> too much.  Watch what happened to Geroux in the
> early stages of the Just A Game.  You can see that
> Rosario kept Roca Rojo under a hold down the
> backstretch.
>
> Of course, there is some common ownership with
> Lady Eli, so beating her may not have been a high
> priority.

Lady Eli will be for sale in 2 months.  she\'s already entered in the catalogue.  Good point.

[bellsbendboy]

Cannot fathom LADY ELI having lost a nickle of sales price had she been beaten.  

Would also add the conspiracy theorist\'s are out to lunch with their prattle.

As for the race, no question the talented boy, first time racing the Grade II winner had heavy hands early after the unfortunate break, \"Roca\" is a nice mare, who is much better on giving ground, which wasn\'t available. Yet where is the pre-race evidence she was ever going to threaten a five time grade one winner?

bbb