Arrogate - Betting

[Boscar Obarra]

For those that think \'they knew\' last time, we see the same betting pattern in the doubles for this round.

 Lots of late money against Arrogate.  

 fwiw

[jumpnthefire]

lots of bridge jumpers?

[philywheel]

at this point, the Bride Jumpers are out there

[Boscar Obarra]

There ya go.  They knew ;-)

  Just saw the trackus, 50 feet given up by that strange  ride

  Wasn\'t watching that close but I think the inside was good today,  so this wide trip wasn\'t all that brilliant.

[P-Dub]

Broke from the extreme outside post, connections said they wanted him into the race from the start.

Where was he supposed to place him?? Arrogate is usually placed outside of horses in most of his races. That wasn\'t the same Arrogate, if it was we aren\'t talking about the ride. Not to mention there is no guarantee he wins if he gets a better trip. Race dynamics and traffic come into consideration if you jam him behind horses eating dirt.

[Boscar Obarra]

If the rail is playing well, you don\'t want to be wide on both turns. Maybe there was nothing to be done, maybe he could have tucked early 2w instead of 3w. Didn\'t do a horse NOT at his best any favors.

 I was against him today, but the way it panned out, he could have won (not by much)  with less give up.

[P-Dub]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If the rail is playing well, you don\'t want to be
> wide on both turns. Maybe there was nothing to be
> done, maybe he could have tucked early 2w instead
> of 3w. Didn\'t do a horse NOT at his best any
> favors.
>
>  I was against him today, but the way it panned
> out, he could have won (not by much)  with less
> give up.

He broke running with Smith urging him to get into the race. He was 3W due to post position and race dynamics. Collected is on the rail, Accelerate on his flank, Arrogate just outside of him.

The pace wasn\'t particularly fast, so in order for him to try and get any type of position closer to the rail, he would have to somehow slow him down. 3W was the best he was going to do going into the 1st turn with an outside post and slow pace.

Maybe if you cut the corner turning for home he wins, but you\'re also assuming the horse puts in the same run. Who knows.

After a race its easy to steer a horse into the perfect trip to win, but if that was the real Arrogate it wouldn\'t have mattered.

[jbelfior]

That\'s about as good as it gets as far as an explanation.

Sluggish early now in 3 straight races going back to Dubai. Never a good sign. I\'m not buying that he doesn\'t care for DelMar.

Won in Dubai because Gun Runner can\'t get a 1 1/4. Good luck to anyone running to Vegas right now to get down on that.

My opinion is the 2 efforts against CC is behind this.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[olelucky]

The double into collected and out of that race was lower than the win parlay, you won\'t see that very often in big pools.

Hunt paid 8.80, Collected 8.00 for a parlay of 35.20, double was 30.00

Collected 8.00, Edwards Going Left 5.40 for a parlay of 21.60, double was 21.40