ROTW

[One_Time]

I know I\'m jumping the gun, but wanted to submit the request in case there wasn\'t one this week

[TGAB]

I\'m looking for one right now. Submit away.

[One_Time]

Forbidden Apple is my nomination

[TGAB]

It\'s a good, competitive race. Perhaps the changing of the guard, perhaps not yet but frankly, there are a bunch that can win which makes it tricky and frankly too tough to get a handle on w/any real sense of confidence.

I think I found one more suitable for an ROTW, but it never hurts to ask.

It\'ll be up in a little while.

[dannyboy135]

Indiana derby. I think we have a vulnerable favorite

[Tavasco]

While I appreciate the perceived value of the ROTW analysis. I just do not have any confidence in the habitual ground losers Special Ops & Conquest Typhoon. I\'m convinced Gangster is a poor favorite and beatable but befuddled abit by expectations of a heavy track.

So I went through the data wrote down my thoughts only to realize I agree with Allen other than Conquest Typhoon who could and should finish better than in previous efforts. His confidence is my trepidation.


One Mean Man
The TG read that this one, in the best case, could finish 3rd or 4th. Makes sense to me. One Mean Man could run another good 5 (i.e. little or no ground loss). I\'m going to sleep on the idea of keying this one in 3rd or 4th?

Special Ops
My problem with Special Ops is I expect him to run a 6. Also known as a ground loss loaded 4. The trainer switch from Brad Cox to Mike Maker is cause to suspect he may run better than expected. Other than that I would toss this one.

Pleuven
@ m/l 3/1 not under the radar. From my perspective this horse s/b and maybe will be the post time favorite. I\'ll excuse the last race (temporarily) as a bad trip. Need to watch the replay agaiin. Forecasting a good 3-4 makes this one the most likely winner unfortuneately the crowd may agree.

Gangster
M/L favoritisim could be a function O\'Neill\'s reputation and SoCal origins than other factors. For me, jockey Gutierrez mitigates any advantage. IMO, as the horse most likely to run a good 4-5 will not leave this one out but don\'t expect a winner.

Chocolate Ride
My issue with this horse is how heavy will the track be? Do you like front runners on tracks tha are not fast? Plus the O\'Neill horse unlikely to concede an easy lead. Consistent and competitive but has Bridgmohan been riding him?

Conquest Typhoon
The race is only 1+1/16. Unless something changes it will be over before he gets straighten out for home. What I mean is his apparently good looking #\'s are like Special OPs ground loss loaded. Maybe Albarado carves out a trip that saves some ground. m/l 8/1 seems fair to me. A slow track could work to his advantage cause he has a late kick.

Kalamos
Not the worst 30/1 m/l horse I\'ve ever seen. Only 8 y/o and well rested for a couple of years? Don\'t know enough about the trainer or jockey as a cause for any confidence. Is slow now but was fast and very durable once. Probably not on any of my tickets.

Western Reserve
Reminds me of Cleveland and academia. It would be nice to understand the trainer change. Otherwise nothing not to like for me. Contender.

Surgical Strike
I don\'t see this horse being relevant other than as traffic.

In Summary
My plan is to also play exactas but fewer tickets. In the 1st position Western Reserve, Pleuven. In the 2nd slot I\'ll use Western Reserve, Chocolate Ride, & Pleuven.  If it comes off the turf $2 to show on Kalamos.

Thanks for ROTW it\'s appreciated.

[Wamsutta]

Tavasco,

“this horse is s/b” â€" can you translate the s/b? Thanks.

“Do you like front runners on tracks that are not fast?” On a grass course, yes. If the grass course is firm, the horses race on top of the ground rather than through it (obviously). The softer it gets, the deeper the runners sink into the ground, which will blunt the speed of their finishing kick. Since a lot of grass races are run with a slowish early pace (especially compared with dirt races) with an anticipation of a quickening 3-2F out to sprint home, the inability to quicken at the same rate late on to chase a moderate pace favors the front runner who can maintain his fractions. The fact that the courses in North America are so turning and short-stretched in nature I think helps as well, since if it is harder to accelerate in general on softer ground, it will be that much more difficult on a sharp turn, and the short stretch leaves less time to make up the difference.

Obviously, different horses will sink into the soft ground to different extents, depending partly on their hoof, their stride, but especially on their weight â€" the heavier the horse, the more they generally sink in, so a lighter built horse can often take to soft ground better. Something the  Mig pointed out just before Found beat Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup Turf is that this often favors fillies and mares, since they are typically lighter built than males.

Macagone at Aqueduct is almost the perfect storm â€" agile horse who takes turns well, not heavily built, generally a front runner …. I think he’s won his last 4 races at Aqueduct on less than firm ground.

In this race, Chocolate Ride does not have a great record on less than firm, although one of those was at 12F, not really his bailiwick. Plueven has a good record on softer turf though, so he would be hard to ignore if that is in fact the ground. Western Reserve and Kalamos both also have some modestly favorable form on less than firm, so its hard to argue with your analysis.

[mistermoose]

I had to chuckle when I saw this was the ROTW. My brother and Rusty Jones
claimed this horse at Churchill  with this specific race in mind. I believe
they won a three way shake to get him. Kent was an assistant the last few years for
Jimmy Jerkins, and has learned his lessons well. I expect him to be a very
good up and coming trainer. The plan is just like the analysis, get a good
break, and get right to the rail and save ground. Hopefully the horse can
carry the added weight of me on his back (haha) and run his number.  I plan
to use the KISS approach, solid win bet and then protect with exactas with
him under. Good luck to all, the Spaaaa looms.

[mistermoose]

also heard that plueven is a likely scratch

[Tavasco]

Pretty good claim.

Pretty good Trainer

Pretty good race

Pretty good jockey

Pretty good post

Pretty good.........

[TempletonPeck]

Congrats to your brother! Nearly got 9/2 so congrats to you also!

[Silver Charm]

It\'s a you never know kind of a game. Kent touted Effinex to EVERYONE on Belmont Day a couple yrs ago. Horse fought the bit and bolted the track. Came back next out and beat Tonalist to win the Suburban. He has had his hands on some good horses. The connectiins werent surprised here.

Rusty is one of my best friends. Class act and great Sportsman. This isn\'t the place to get personal but 10 days ago he had to do one of the toughest things anyone will ever have to do. Buried his Mom. The sun began shining a little brighter today!!

[Bet Twice]

Nice job with the analysis Alan, and thank you mistermoose for the added context.  I was a little leary of the unknown trainer ( unknown to me) - your post sealed the deal.

[mistermoose]

Thanks. I have known Kent for a few years now and have very high hopes
 for him. Very nice and humble young man. I hope some guys made some
 $, hope to pass on some insight on a few horses coming up at the spaaa