Ohio Derby

[jbelfior]

Post 2 and getting 4 lbs.from the favorite (Mikey likely to have Girvin 5 wide on both turns) makes Untrapped a nice play at 4-1 or so.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[P-Dub]

Why is it likely he goes 5 wide?

I guess you missed the ride on Songbird last weekend.

[jbelfior]

You mean the one turn 1 1/16th race where he let Castellano come inside of him?

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Old Mr. Boston]

I really like Irap. Irap is 4 points faster than anyone in the race and has had 11 weeks to recover from the jump up top. Given the track condition on Derby Day, I am willing to overlook any horses poor showing.

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You mean the one turn 1 1/16th race where he let
> Castellano come inside of him?
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


Correct.

We are talking about the same race, the one where he dropped down into the 2 path after being wide down the backstretch. The race where Castellano came up inside of him and never was going to pass.

There was really no reason to jam the filly along the fence after he already saved ground turning for home. But I guess Joe B knows how to ride horses better than Mike Smith. Maybe he should take your advice, he may win 6 races next time instead of 5.

You guys are really funny. I didn\'t know the 2 path was the same as the 5 path, but hey, don\'t let the facts get in the way of a good story.

[jbelfior]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jbelfior Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > You mean the one turn 1 1/16th race where he
> let
> > Castellano come inside of him?
> >
> > Good Luck,
> > Joe B
>
>
> Correct.
>
> We are talking about the same race, the one where
> he dropped down into the 2 path after being wide
> down the backstretch. The race where Castellano
> came up inside of him and never was going to pass.
>
>
> There was really no reason to jam the filly along
> the fence after he already saved ground turning
> for home. But I guess Joe B knows how to ride
> horses better than Mike Smith. Maybe he should
> take your advice, he may win 6 races next time
> instead of 5.
>
> You guys are really funny. I didn\'t know the 2
> path was the same as the 5 path, but hey, don\'t
> let the facts get in the way of a good story.


You\'re a riot P-Dub. A regular riot.

The way handicappers treat a 1 turn route at Belmont and a 2 turn route at Santa Anita are the same. Jocks ride them no differently either.

What was I thinking?


Good Luck,
Joe B

[sekrah]

I can\'t get past Irap here. Training well and has the best fig by a lot. A good break from that top, O\'Neill doesn\'t ship for fun. Looks like a good spot for him to wire one.

[Tavasco]

Took me a day pondering Untrapped to decide he has merit, if a big If he can get back to something near his big race.

My pace expectations point at a mob with your Irap trying to control things but traffic on the second turn. Irap should have every chance but he doesn\'t lay over the field imo.

Hinton probably bounces, has a bad post but 20/1 with some possibility of another forward move seduces.

Good Luck

[Niall]

These pools at Thistledowns are OUT OF WACK! 5th race payouts were by FAR very generous on the only logicals 4,5,7. In the 6th The fav in the p3 is paying $54 and is 11-1 while the fav 1 is 6/5 and paying $178 while the 2nd choice 6 at 3-1 is paying $334...

result of small pools?

[johnnym]

First impression not a very good race to wager on.
Irap has fastest figure doesn\'t have to run his fastest to win is the high weight of the bunch 3-1 won\'t be alone on the front

 Untrapped with three 4\'s and then the Derby.
Have issues with this horse getting the distance,maybe a future sprinter.

Vibe 12-1 moving in the right direction getting weight with a trainer that has ran 8 times in 90 days running 38% new tops needs a decent jump to win,has put in a couple of nice works though.

Gervin the favorite with Mike flying in put in a nice work. Does he move forward from his pair of 4,Tale Of Ekatis really do not move up much

Hinton with a big jump up last out of 4 pts. Being out of Candy Ride this is a semi expected move up. Does he bounce? Big move up in class. 20-1

How far does Irap/ Fast Accurate/ Vibe take them

With those three front runners it may set up,for a horse coming of the pace.
I\'ll take a shot with the horse that is improving
Hinton to win
Ex: Irap,Girvin/ Hinton
Good Luck.
You guys keep posting like this who knows who,it will draw out of the wood work.
John

[johnnym]

Hinton down to 10-1
Irap 5-1 hmmm

[johnnym]

Hiton was done in the gate not saying he wins.
Irap learned to rate for the win.
Congrats

[sekrah]

Yep, Irap might be a force.  He had a god-awful trip and persevered.  Look out.  Would have been a hell of call for the stewards to have to make if Girvin won that head bob.

[Tavasco]

Never a doubt. I liked him best a couple of minutes before post when he flashed @ 6/1 a couple of times. Good choice Sek.

Girvin ruined my exacta.

[jbelfior]

Thought Santana would have been closer and inside going into the first turn.

This is what happens when connections have doubts about a  horse\'s ability to get a distance of ground. Rider takes back in a :48, traffic jam ensues, next thing you know you\'re 5 wide with way too much to do.

Probably better off sticking to a mile or less anyway.

Good Luck,
Joe B.