BES - Preakness DD Probables

[Molesap]

Very interesting to me that Classic Empire is almost as short as Always Dreaming in the DD probables. Still 15 minutes to post, but the DD prices do not reflect the mornings of 4/5 vs. 3/1. The DD with Summer Luck is almost the same.

#   4   5
1.   29.20     37.40
2.   58.00     70.20
3.   60.60     68.00
4.   81.80     109.80
5.   37.40     52.40
6.   129.40     142.80
7.   20.80     33.60
8.   114.60     146.80
9.   29.00     29.60
10.   74.40     91.00
11.   112.60     127.80

[BitPlayer]

Here are the Preakness odds I get from the doubles from the two favorites in the Black-Eyed Susan:

Multiplier: 23.1
Cloud Computing: 14.7
Hence: 23.1
Always Dreaming: 1.0
Classic Empire: 2.0
Gunnevera: 11.7
Term of Art: 99.9
Senior Investment: 78.3
Lookin At Lee: 14.7
Conquest Mo Money: 13.6

[jimbo66]

Bit,

Your math needs a lot of work.

Always dreamin is paying $34.60
Classic Empire is paying $42.60

At $13.80 for $1 on the winner, you are getting about 8-5 on AD and 2-1 on CE.

Roughly.

[BitPlayer]

Jimbo -

My numbers are not based on the probables from the winner of the BES (Actress). As indicated in my post, they are based on the probables from the two favorites in the BES (Shimmering Aspen and Moana).  I think using horses that took more money in the first leg is more predictive.  My numbers seem to fit pretty well with the early wagering.

[hellersorr]

At what price is one forced to say:  \"Wow, those are some seriously high odds on Hence\"?

[Mathcapper]

Nice work Bit -- I do it similarly and get the same.

It\'ll be interesting to see how closely the BES/Preakness DD action correlates to the final Preakness odds.

Almost $800K in the pool, but that doesn\'t necessarily mean the correlations are going to be better. Some may recall the Palace Malice Belmont Boscar and I posted about a few years ago (7-1 in the Will Pays, went off 13-1 on the tote).

There\'s also the one day lag between races to consider. The Will Pays from the Dixie into the Preakness might provide a little better indicator.

[Boscar Obarra]

Eyeballed the payoff matrix  (you can see it on expressbet).

   Looks like a LOT of CE money in the house , and an 800k pool is big enough to be representative.

[richiebee]

hellersorr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At what price is one forced to say:  \"Wow, those
> are some seriously high odds on Hence\"?


I hate to get all Jimbo on you and Leamas, but this is the Thorograph board, and
when you are making a case for Hence, you should preface it by saying \"(a)
Thorographically, Hence is arguably seventh fastest runner in the race and
(b) his top effort is arguably considerably slower than the top efforts of the six
runners who are faster than him\" and then rattle off the reasons you like him.

AP Indy on the bottom, good.

His post Derby work at CD very pokey... whats up with that?

[hellersorr]

Thorographically, Hence is arguably seventh fastest runner in the race and his top effort is arguably considerably slower than the top efforts of the six runners who are faster than him.

Because of this and because the projected pace does not appear to favor deep closers, Hence would not appear to be a wise bet at anything less than 20-1.  But what if he\'s 30-1?  35-1?

At SOME price he\'s a play, as Thorographically slow runners will win a number of races Saturday all across the fruited plain.  (Ditto Ragozinically, Beyerinically, Timeforminically, etc. slow runners.  These things happen.)

It\'s not like he wiped himself out two weeks ago with a huge effort, as is possibly the case with the heavily bet AD and CE.

If I bet Hence because he\'s 30-1, it will be a small wager, I assure you - as I don\'t have a high winning percentage with 30-1 shots.  But I\'m NOT betting a deli to win a pickle (somebody said that once) on AD at 1-1 or CE at 2-1.

(You know what?  I think I like my original \"Reader\'s Digest\" posting on Hence better. . . .)

[hellersorr]

By the way, I\'ve been reading this list for several years and I would like to thank you for introducing me to the word \"alte kakker.\" Absolutely tremendous term.

[richiebee]

A little Yiddish still goes a long way in NYC.

While we are on Hence, there is a runner on the undercard this afternoon who has
two connections to Hence, looks Thorographically feasible, and is 12/1 morning
line.

As to Beyer, Ragoburger and especially from what I have seen, Timeform, I don\'t
bother with traif.

[Boscar Obarra]

Confirming  money flow in doubles,  lots of action on CE as expected.

[hellersorr]

At these odds, the only possible value I see is Conquest Mo Money, because he has early speed in a race lacking same.  But I still hate the post, because of the possibility of breaking out.

This was a much more interesting race before Royal Mo got injured.

YMM(and probably will)V