Beyer on AD

[20kbrew]

They need PT Barnum right now.

[T Severini]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T-7
>
> Rather cosmic, some circus analysis returns just
> as The Ringling Brothers
> operation folds up The Big (not New) Top sometime
> in the near future.

Well, time to check the weather again. That track could make it interesting.

still lookin at the race Richie. That first race winner on april fools day had one other condition I missed, restricted allowances, He had set a previous track record, but was seven years old.

...Oh, I almost forgot...he did so never changing leads

[T Severini]

Not certain what is going on with the weather there in Baltimore, but it could make for an interesting day. The track is currently a bit of a bog and not sure it can dry even if there is no more rain. All bets for me are contingent at this moment.

Multiplier - Not going to ignore miles in 1:35 and 9 panels in 1:47. How far up he\'s used will depend on the track at race time. The more heavy, the more use. We get a peek at his vanquished opponent in the Sir Barton before deciding. Currently T2

Cloud Computing - Castellano  on, having seen the horrid break last thought he ran extremely well. Would have made him a big pace player on a dry track, now will have to wait and see, but he appears quickest if he wants to use it, but don\'t think Castellano will, though don\'t think Always Dreaming would like that.  Dry track and he could be a results altering horse. Use up to T2 depending on track.

Hence - Having been high on Hence, the track will be the deciding factor and probably won\'t have a firm opinion until seeing the track condition late and how Hence looks on it in the post parade.

Always Dreaming - He\'s going to be odds on.

Classic Empire - Expecting a big run regardless of track, Tier 1

Gunnevera - Gotta give him a pass on the Florida Derby where he spotted far too much ground on that surface. Also have to forgive the Derby slop. Still not enamored with Castellano off. T2 with select T1 use.

Looking at Lee - T2

Conquest Mo Money - T2 with select T1 use. He could inherit the lead on a different type of track than others have been used to.

Now this stated. The track condition will be dispositive for me. If it gets anywhere near Derby Day, this race will be a pass.

Final Choices very late

[SoCalMan2]

atakante Wrote:
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> \"This horse is not that good...he\'s not even gonna
> be 4th on my superfectas.  He was the beneficiary
> of perfect trips and big inside track bias on
> Churchill Downs.\"


Got to give Beyer some credit on this...calling for tossing the favorite all the way out of the super.

[boardedup]

That was impressive, although 3 of the 4 horses he picked missed the super, (he had CE winning)

[jimbo66]

Yes, and as expected on current board makeup, the people killing Beyer for it are as silent as church mice.

Jim

[Silver Charm]

Not here but I wasn\'t critical of him but of the idea it was all bias. And I\'m eating g crow crap whatever.

Perhaps TG can do a Pletcher Study and say if it isn\'t a wet track rail bias Pletcher is 0 for a 1,000 in Derbies...

[sekrah]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> atakante Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > \"This horse is not that good...he\'s not even
> gonna
> > be 4th on my superfectas.  He was the
> beneficiary
> > of perfect trips and big inside track bias on
> > Churchill Downs.\"
>
>
> Got to give Beyer some credit on this...calling
> for tossing the favorite all the way out of the
> super.

Beyer also dismissed CC and ridiculed Chad Brown as nothing more than a turf trainer, spewing a bunch of false stats about him.

Beyer is like Bozo The Clown, hanging on to relevance from 40 years ago.ome  period. Tossing a favorite in a race doesn\'t change that.  Another complete whiff from Andy.

[NormandyInvasion]

Is this the second or third G1 dirt win for CB?  Now compare that to the 10,000 or so he\'s won on turf.  I think the stats probably backed up Beyer, or at least enough to not deserve that blasting.

[sekrah]

NormandyInvasion Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is this the second or third G1 dirt win for CB?
> Now compare that to the 10,000 or so he\'s won on
> turf.  I think the stats probably backed up Beyer,
> or at least enough to not deserve that blasting.


According to TG stats, his win % on dirt is higher thab turf. The only reason he hasn\'t had classic dirt winners til now is because he hasn\'t been given the horses. I suspect that will change.  If you can train a horse t win on turf, you can win on any surface.

That was not a logical reason to dismiss CC. His statement on Brown was something I would expect to hear from an amateur handicapper that bets once a year.

[Topcat]

The \"Preakness death\" to Derby winners who triumphed over off tracks continues apace.

[Chas04]

Foolish words by him. Also - Connect is not only going to win the Met, he\'s going to flirt with the track record. If Baffert sees the reply of his last wouldn\'t be shocked to see Mor Spirit audible out. #runningforsecond. Horse is going to win the BC Mile as well. Chad on dirt will be more of a mantra then Chad on turf in 2017. Congrats to Cloudy. One more leg to go.

[jbelfior]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, and as expected on current board makeup, the
> people killing Beyer for it are as silent as
> church mice.
>
> Jim


Did he cash the ticket Jimbo?

Good Luck,
Joe B

[T Severini]

Most of the game is factoring how to beat a heavy favorite. It would be nice to cash doing so, but you still have to pick a horse to do that.

Cloud Computing ran a great race. To those that picked him as your clear winner. Take a bow.

Coffee is ready, then time to read what Jerry thought!

Well, if I\'d taken TG\'s advice I\'d have cashed.

[TreadHead]

Equibase allows a trainer search but unfortunately does not provide itemized results and lumps dirt and synth together in the query result.  Guessing Brown does not run that many on synth since there are so few GradeA options.

Also does not allow a specific Grade 1 breakout but does let you filter on just graded stakes. Given those caveats:

2017:
Brown is 21-7-3-3 in graded dirt/synth stakes
ranks 5th in earnings with 2.3m
ranks 3rd in wins, only Baffert(13) and Pletcher(10) have more

2016:
Brown was 56-9-12-11
Ranked 6th in total earnings
Only Baffert, Pletcher, Mclaughlin, and Hollendorfer had more dirt stakes wins