Beyer on AD

[atakante]

\"This horse is not that good...he\'s not even gonna be 4th on my superfectas.  He was the beneficiary of perfect trips and big inside track bias on Churchill Downs.\"

[jbelfior]

So he\'s caught 4 track biases in a row? Lucky horse.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[atakante]

This was from the DRF podcast yesterday.  I don\'t agree with completely tossing AD, but I do find his point on inside bias believable.  After all LAL and BoM are no world beaters and probably won\'t replicate this kinda lucky performance ever again.  I think there was a mention of how KD cannot be compared to earlier races in the day.

[sekrah]

Hate to break it to him, but this horse is probably going to have another perfect trip on Saturday.  He makes his own trip.  Hats off to Andy for having the stones to leave a horse like that out of your superfecta.

[boardedup]

Anything to make yourself \"relevant\" again.  That\'s the hot take of the season for sure.

[jbelfior]

In his webinar this week, Beyer proclaimed Andy Serling to be the best public handicapper around.

Think about that while thinking about him leaving AD off his top 4. Closing bars in Georgetown every night eventually catches up to you.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Topcat]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In his webinar this week, Beyer proclaimed Andy
> Serling to be the best public handicapper around.
>
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B

Serling has his multiple good points -- but that\'s utter gibberish.  Further, baldly serving that verbiage without footnoting the history of the pair -- and the historic attachment -- is less than forthright.

[T Severini]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In his webinar this week, Beyer proclaimed Andy
> Serling to be the best public handicapper around.
>
> Think about that while thinking about him leaving
> AD off his top 4. Closing bars in Georgetown every
> night eventually catches up to you.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


Other than Jerry, I don\'t pay much attention to what other handicappers say, but just watched Serling\'s Derby Preview and then his Preakness Preview. The Derby became a tougher race with the track condition so can\'t hold it entirely against him but if he even sniffed anything, it was glue. Not even close. Poor large picture as well.

Now that said, his Preakness analysis is almost entirely inline with mine and so I\'m shaken and this is why I don\'t like to watch these things. What makes it worse is that I felt similarly about American Pharoah two years ago. Really felt things had developed well for him to make him advantaged in his races. Same thing I perceive about Always Dreaming. Heck, its more than that I bet Always Dreaming last on those advantages!

Anyway, so this guy perceives similarly about Always Dreaming and still is looking to beat him in the Preakness.

Read in another thread that Battle of Midway and Lookin at Lee clunked up. I don\'t agree. Serling liked Battle last, (his only real insight), and believes Lee is a clunker deluxe. I do not. So...time to look at the track condition. My home is under water, course I live in a swamp, Built a castle here it burnt down and fell into the swamp. No idea whats going on at Pimlico, if its a swamp I\'m passing this race.

Rundown to follow

[johnnym]

Ever hear Serling on the BYK show?
Guy yawns his way through his interviews.

[Boscar Obarra]

Chronic , well known problem.

But I suspect the yawns from the audience are equally impressive.

[jerry]

For those of you too young to remember.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jxO0EKlYv0k

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JDzf_2NzbZU

[richiebee]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> My home is under water, course I live in a swamp, Built a
> castle here it burnt down and fell into the swamp.
> No idea whats going on at Pimlico, if its a swamp
> I\'m passing this race.

  Remember what Jimi Hendrix said about castles. The ones made of sand, not the Spanish ones.
 
> Rundown to follow

Do you mean following the race?

Liking the undercard tomorrow, a lot more than the Derby undercard. Don\'t know
why. A few Thorographically fast runners with morning line odds between 8/1-
12/1. Whitmore is in career form, but his trainer did him no favors by dropping
him in a spot where he has to give 6 pounds to last year\'s champion sprinter.

A $.20 buy in Rainbow 6 and a $1,000,000 guarantee P5 ending with the Preakness,
and a nice Spring day to hang out in the backyard at Bel to take in the
proceedings.

[T Severini]

>
>   Remember what Jimi Hendrix said about castles.
> The ones made of sand, not the Spanish ones.
>  
> > Rundown to follow
>
> Do you mean following the race?

lol

I\'m still working on it. Track looks to be fast and dry with cool weather. So no swamp.

Regarding the other post about Super Saver\'s Derby, this horse is not Super Saver but he has caught perfect tracks and competition. Still evaluating.


Castles

[T Severini]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T Severini Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > My home is under water, course I live in a
> swamp, Built a
> > castle here it burnt down and fell into the
> swamp.
> > No idea whats going on at Pimlico, if its a
> swamp
> > I\'m passing this race.
>
>   Remember what Jimi Hendrix said about castles.
> The ones made of sand, not the Spanish ones.
>  
> > Rundown to follow
>
> Do you mean following the race?
>

Gonna make this a two part rundown and will start with the circus tenent.

The circus tenent is multifaceted. It starts with the fact that Always Dreaming is a very fast horse in the right circumstances. One of those circumstances is compromised speed. Obviously another is advantaged \"pace\" on a favorable surface. In regard to the surface and competition, Always Dreaming has had good draws for 3 races.

Before we get to the Derby, lets go back to the Florida Derby. In that race, it is more than fair to say that No one knows what kind of race Always Dreaming ran that day, other than to say pace advantaged Always Dreaming kept close and drew off, which is how he rolls. But the reason nobody knows what kind of race Always Dreaming ran that day is because there were no Dirt Races to evaluate the track upon. It was the Florida Derby and 13 Grass Heats. Now that\'s an exaggeration, but it is not that far off.

Of some significance is that the first race was a 4^ NW2X. \"So What\" you say! Come a time a horse is 4YO is there still eternal optimism?  Well on Florida Derby  Day there was!  That first race conditional allowance horse set a track record. Later, Always Dreaming shadowed, drew off and beat the renowned but throttled down speed popper State of Honor. The choke hold that day was epic. You say, \"But what about the Derby funny man!\" Review that 1st race and review that day, its part of the circus tenent.

Later, I\'ll take the base tenent, add some quickness, anecdote, logic and projection, mix it around and pour it out of the bag as the completed circus tenent and from under it reveal some horse plays and horse noplays in the new Tiered Format! Not trying to build drama, just not ready quite yet. Coffee is an ingredient still have to add.

Ned

[richiebee]

T-7

Rather cosmic, some circus analysis returns just as The Ringling Brothers
operation folds up The Big (not New) Top sometime in the near future.