Most likely winner

[Mc990]

With the recent defection of some logical pace candidates, Irish War Cry is looking more and more interesting as the potential pacesetter. If he saves ground, his secondary top could take it and should at least put him in the money.

I realize the likelihood of the bounce and while I certainly fear it, I\'m thinking as 3rd/4th choice in most pools, the reward outweighs the risk.

Even if he\'s 30% to make the lead and 50% to X, he seems like value, especially considering, anything close to his last makes him a contender even with a 3w,3w.

Is a ground saving \"1\" good enough?

[TGJB]

Highly unlikely he\'s on the lead, there are at least two horses with connections that want to be on the lead and don\'t care where they finish. Saving ground is a different issue.

[jimbo66]

Mc990,

IWC is not going to make the lead.  Especially after he rated so well in the Wood.  Hard to believe they would deviate from that plan.

I think a more likely trip for IWC would be 2w/2w.  

That said, I do think he is marginally the most likely winner.  HE is the fastest horse in the race and has the winning profile from a pace perspective (can be in the race early and not navigate through 10+ horses).  

The big negative number makes him a tougher read.  Will guess that seminar takes a more negative view on this horse than I will based on the long history of horses coming in off negative numbers that didn\'t run back to them in the Derby.  

I like having Graham Motion in my corner though.  

Thinking the winner comes from the group of Irish War Cry, Practical Joke and McCracken.

Good luck.

Jim

[jbelfior]

Fast and Accurate is one of them. Irap may be the other.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jerry]

Wouldn\'t touch a trip projection prior to the draw. I\'d also include Classic Empire in that group of likely winners just out of respect for Casse.

[sekrah]

IWC actually stands out to me for how extraordinary little value he offers. I wouldn\'t give him more than a 7% chance of winning this race.

[jimbo66]

Of course Sekrah,IWC is a 7% chance, fastest horse in the race, whose secondary top is even a contending figure.

But you like Always Dreamin, who will be the worst derby favorite in 30 years, if he goes off favored.  A one figure horse off a 9 point improvement, who is training poorly and rank every day before he has to run 1 1/4.  Even if 7% was close to accurate, which it isn\'t, he would still be twice as likely as AD win.

Been searching on the internet for odds to finish last.  Figure as likely favorite, AD should be at least 30-1 to finish last.  A great bet IMO.

At least lines are drawn.

[TempletonPeck]

You would be happy to lay 13.5/1 on IWC?

[jimbo66]

Exactly, that why it was a silly post.

Lay 13.5 to 1 against the fastest horse....

[Furious Pete]

I got to agree with Jimbo here, 7 % seems low. If he runs his race he\'ll be tough to beat for anyone, the bounce probability is high but is it that high? It would be interesting to hear your reasoning on this one.

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of course Sekrah,IWC is a 7% chance, fastest horse
> in the race, whose secondary top is even a
> contending figure.
>
> But you like Always Dreamin, who will be the worst
> derby favorite in 30 years, if he goes off
> favored.  A one figure horse off a 9 point
> improvement, who is training poorly and rank every
> day before he has to run 1 1/4.  Even if 7% was
> close to accurate, which it isn\'t, he would still
> be twice as likely as AD win.
>
> Been searching on the internet for odds to finish
> last.  Figure as likely favorite, AD should be at
> least 30-1 to finish last.  A great bet IMO.
>
> At least lines are drawn.


Yes, Always Dreaming, not my top choice for value, is a much better prospect to win this race than IWC.  Good luck with your wagers in the Derby, jimbo.

[sekrah]

I don\'t have to lay 13.5/1 on IWC so no, I\'m not making any macho side bets here.  I\'m happy enough watching all the bad money go on him.

[Leamas57]

Atta Boy, Sekrah.

Good for you to stick up for yourself. Sometimes I think the name of this forum should be changed to \"Ask the Experts (if you dare).\"

It\'s a tough crowd for a tough game, but that doesn\'t make bullying legit.

I agree that AD has a legit shot. I might stick my own neck out once they draw the posts.



Leamas

[TGJB]

I have to believe there are places to get head to head prop action on this one, if not to win, at least who beats who.

[sekrah]

Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Atta Boy, Sekrah.
>
> Good for you to stick up for yourself. Sometimes I
> think the name of this forum should be changed to
> \"Ask the Experts (if you dare).\"
>
> It\'s a tough crowd for a tough game, but that
> doesn\'t make bullying legit.
>
> I agree that AD has a legit shot. I might stick my
> own neck out once they draw the posts.
>
>
>
> Leamas


The same chirping chihuahuas every year like to pretend they solved this game.  It\'s humorous to say the least.