Who's the Bomb to Blow up the Exotics?

hotspringskid · April 30, 2017, 01:20:53 PM

I\'m taking a shot with Sonneteer at 50-1 plus. I don\'t think he can win, but he has had steady improvement on dirt this year and ran the fastest last 1/16 of any of the entries in his last race of 11 3/5 and I\'m hoping the extra distance and at least a little bit of pace may help. He\'s worth a shot to get in the tri or super at those odds. There wasn\'t a lot of pace in the Arkansas Derby and he still closed strong. Any thoughts?

Tavasco · April 30, 2017, 01:30:05 PM

Well you sure are right about his ability to win (as yet) hard to argue with leaving him out of the top spot.

Airnate012 · April 30, 2017, 02:03:40 PM

Out of all the deep closers, I\'d prefer Gunny and LAL based on figs, but you won\'t be getting 50/1 on either. Can\'t knock someone for taking a shot, bombs away!

jerry · May 01, 2017, 01:34:27 PM

Tapwrit. Good line coming in with a competitive top 2 back and poor start in last. Willing to use at anything north of 20-1.

Tavasco · May 01, 2017, 01:54:55 PM

Sonneteer works in :47 flat bullet per Paulick report.

TAP seems confident (jumping out of his skin) AD will benefit from draw reins.

Works Link

TGJB · May 01, 2017, 01:56:32 PM

We should archive trainers\' pre Derby comments.

ajkreider · May 01, 2017, 02:01:57 PM

Sonnet had what looked by the clock to be a killer workout - 4F in :47 and galloped-out in under a minute. Really don\'t like the three weeks, but a good pick to blow things up.

I worry about State of Honor. I think he has no shot to win, and every race I\'m thinking, ok this is going to far. And all he has done has been in the tri for 6 straight races. Casse says they\'ve been pointing here all along (though, what\'s he supposed to say.) Has looked good in works. Can see leaving him off everything, him just holding on for the show, and me ripping up a lot of tickets.

jp702006 · May 01, 2017, 02:07:52 PM

Aj, pick a few horses that you like along with your \'key\' horse and then use the \'all\' button. If the horses that you really like run their race the all button can save the day on occasion for underneath.

Patrick

Tavasco · May 01, 2017, 02:29:26 PM

Yes compiled by TG edited by richiebee sure to be an interesting read. Dubious economics just like TAP.

TGJB · May 01, 2017, 02:46:28 PM

Or simply don\'t play supers, or maybe even tris. There\'s no law.

Mc990 · May 01, 2017, 02:47:13 PM

Seems like now or never for a forward move and with 5 weeks he could do just that. State of honor, McCraken, Thunder Snow seem most likely to run a new top IMO.

Speaking of Thunder Snow, I\'m assuming he\'s 1st lasix but any confirmation?

jbrown007 · May 01, 2017, 03:05:53 PM

Anybody have any idea how often horses from overseas run new tops in the US? I know this is a pretty broad question.
I know there is a lot of love for Thunder Snow and if I like Mccracken why not Thunder Snow? I find it hard to run a new top in the derby in the first place. This horse has 6 weeks between races, Flys across the world and gets put in quarantine for 48 hours and then has to run a mile and quarter race.... Seems unlikely to run a new top to me.
Oh yeah he has lower future odds in Vegas 18-1 then Hence 28-1

jerry · May 01, 2017, 06:14:15 PM

I\'ll need to go back again but, from what I remember, flat lines just don\'t yield too many new tops in this race.

P-Dub · May 01, 2017, 07:37:40 PM

hotspringskid Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m taking a shot with Sonneteer at 50-1 plus. I
> don\'t think he can win, but he has had steady
> improvement on dirt this year and ran the fastest
> last 1/16 of any of the entries in his last race
> of 11 3/5 and I\'m hoping the extra distance and at
> least a little bit of pace may help. He\'s worth a
> shot to get in the tri or super at those odds.
> There wasn\'t a lot of pace in the Arkansas Derby
> and he still closed strong. Any thoughts?

He will absolutely fill out the bottom parts of my tickets

Mc990 · May 02, 2017, 08:37:13 AM

I\'m willing to take a shot on j boys echo to get back to his top. I know he had the perfect setup in the Gotham but at least he capitalized on it... He\'s shown the ability to run a figure which is more than you can say about some of the other longer priced horses.

Bred to handle 10f and Romans has had some success getting pairs and even new tops in the derby (albeit with better looking sheets). If memory serves though, only medal count had a faster top coming in.