Two weeks out --- Wise guys and Morning Glories

[TheBull]

Who do you guys think will be the wise guy horse this year? How about the morning workout buzz horse? Some years it\'s the same horse, but as of today it is looking like Hence will be the wise guy horse and McCracken will be the Mike Welsh/clocker\'s lovefest horse. I realize that we wont know the latter until the works still piling up, but I can already see the McCracken bandwagon filling up fast

[jbrown007]

I think McCracken will go off as 3rd choice off a pretty slow prep, I am very confident he is 9-1 or less. The two wise guy horses will both be Asmussen horses with Hence (sunland derby love) and lookin at lee (trouble down stretch at arkansas)

[sekrah]

A buddy of mine who always seems to end up with the wise guy horse told me Lookin at Lee.

[jerry]

Practical Joke

[Airnate012]

Hence and Lookin at Lee from what I\'ve seen so far.

[TreadHead]

Interesting things are playing out that way given Assmussen is well on his way to Pletcher-like long-term Derby stats with his existing 13-0-1-1 record.  For a much attention as Pletcher\'s Derby stats get, this fact seems lost on most people.  And it isn\'t like he\'s had questionable stock.

[big18741]

13-0-1-2 if it makes a difference.

Also 2 new tops in the Derby with Gun Runner 3rd last year and Nehro 2nd in 2011.
Curlin was a pair up 3rd.

Pletcher only one top with 3.5 x as many runners.

I haven\'t looked at the other ten Asmussen horses but from memory they were mostly X\'s.

[sekrah]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 13-0-1-2 if it makes a difference.
>
> Also 2 new tops in the Derby with Gun Runner 3rd
> last year and Nehro 2nd in 2011.
> Curlin was a pair up 3rd.
>
> Pletcher only one top with 3.5 x as many runners.
>
> I haven\'t looked at the other ten Asmussen horses
> but from memory they were mostly X\'s.


Really too small of a sample to make much out of it.  This is a 20-horse race after all.

[TGJB]

Again, that\'s true if you\'re talking about where they finish. But if you\'re looking at effort distribution, and IF the results are lopsided (like 13 starts with 4 new tops and 4 pairs, or 13 with no pairs, no new tops, with 6 off aces and 7 X\'s), that\'s a decent sample.

Obviously agree when the sample size is not lopsided. When moving one horse into another slot would significantly affect percentages, it\'s too small.

[TheBull]

I think it is also worth noting the time frame that sample size covers as well. For example, that study on TAP that was posted a few days ago made the conclusion that Pletcher\'s most productive pattern Derby wise, has been the top two back, followed by a bounce. I believe the poster referenced Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink as examples. Tough to make bets or predictions off of that when those occurred in 2001 and 2006. I would assume in 16 years, as many Derby starters as TAP has had, he would not be doing things EXACTLY the same now as he did back then (shipping, workouts, different drug rules etc). If we are looking at a general study of patterns on a cross section of different horses, ok, I get it, but when dealing with one guy only, I am not using a horse who ran 16 years ago as a definitive data point to state my case....and if I had to go back that far, I wouldnt be feeling that confident.

[toppled]

I tried that pattern with Intense Holiday in 2014.  I keyed on Commanding Curve & Intense Holiday equally.  It cost me the tri because while I used them both in exacta boxes with Chrome and got bailed out by the huge exacta payoff with Curve, if I hadn\'t been stuck on Intense Holiday, who with Curve were the only 2 horses I put in the win spot in my tris, I would have had Chrome on top of my tris along with Curve instead of Intense Holiday and hit the tri.  

Every time I have played Pletcher in the Derby I\'ve learned a lesson not to.  Fool me 98% of the time, shame on me.

[jerry]

They both get them cranked up to win early and often. Owners get a G1 stallion plus a shot in the Derby, even if they\'ve already topped out. Tells me the Derby isn\'t the ultimate prize for these guys. G1s, stallion prospects and happy owners are.

[TheBull]

Particularly when the trainer gets a free share or season to breed to the stallion as a bonus. Very common and I know TAP gets em.